dendrite

Snowing pretty well now. 27.2°

Reminting pennies

25.2° -SN Working on another tenth.

8hrs of Christmas rain. Enjoy.

3k looks like 1”+ here. We both ride that ptype line though.

Some of the lousier runs try to spawn a norlun in the GOM. Exciting.

It’ll verify here as variably cloudy and 38°

21.0° overcast Had 0.1” overnight…racking up those tenths

This would be lol though

Just spitballing here, but even if that SE ridge starts cycling like JB, that temp gradient may be close by and we could pull off some overrunning events…obviously CAD spots would be favored for more glop. So even though I like to poke the embers with d16 op maps of +20C 850s it doesn’t mean I’m calling for it and that we can’t get some wintry weather. Maybe a reshuffling of the deck would work in everyone’s favor.

6z GFS brings the 591dm ridge back.

So the 00z euro was weaker (a little more open) with the SPV and further south with it than other runs. To my eyes, it tries to squash the shortwave and it ends up more of an elongated, sheared mess as it reaches the northeast. The better runs have kept the SPV a hair further north with a few closed contours and that shortwave dives under more intact, they do a little fuji, and then we get the good punch of dPVA curling near SNE as the SPV merges in behind it. As Ray said, this is all happening at high speed. But there’s a lot going on in the arctic with these pieces over the next 24hrs before they start to separate themselves and become more clean cut. People get pissed at the models, but it doesn’t take much of a change upstream 96hrs out to throw things out of whack.

They always look like an ensemble product to me beyond 24-48hrs.

Yeah that’s pretty much the perfect way to describe it. This thing has always had a lower ceiling, but I wouldn’t shut the door on something minor yet.

Definite step back for the weekend. H5 looking more like a sheared mess.

Let’s get some snow first so we can torch it away.

Yeah this is roughly where the developing SPV and shortwave trough, that eventually slides under it, are right now. There’s lots of little tweaks in the flow that could help this or hurt this in the coming days. As others have said, the end result is we want more “curl” of the vortmax so we can punch that dPVA further north.

16° here but it should slowly climb the rest of the night

Skynet vs Graphcast

Father and son discussing weenies while mom tries to not choke on her American chop suey.

People need to calm down. We’re all having fun and joking about the ridging shown on Christmas. No one is calling for it…yet. With that said, I disagree to some extent. The 12z gefs gained a handful of members with strong SE ridges. Obviously you can’t expect 591dm to verify or be matched on a d16 ens lol. 12z eps is pretty warm looking for the holiday too. Hopefully it pans out cooler. I’d like to have pack for the holiday.

2015! (ok verification was a few days off)

ACATT

That’s 00z Here’s 12z