dendrite

That’s 00z Here’s 12z

I wonder how much the op run is influencing this. The last 3 GEFS runs for Xmas eve.

It really wouldn’t take much to amp this up a little more…just need that SPV to drop in behind the speeding shortwave a little earlier/deeper.

You can’t stop her. You can only hope to contain her.

Holy shit.

588dm up to SNE. lol

12z GFS is going to be fun for Christmas. If you like 60s.

It’s kinda funny looking back at those charts I posted during the 80s. The first week of Dec in those decades were relatively warm minus 1989. Of course the scripts flipped in Jan many of those years including Jan 1990 which flipped warm.

You can look up some of these years. Here’s the “bottom 10” coldest Dec 1-8 periods for CON, ORH, BOS, and BDL

I get it. It’s a lot more difficult on the coast down there pre Christmas and like you said, these are the departures you need…although I’d argue Mooseville hitting -20s on 12/9 is probably more cold than we need…especially in the 2020s versus 1970s.

Ginxy may be the only one that loves snow in someone else’s yard as much as his.

I feel like the knives are a little sharper when regions south of us are getting multiple events and SNE is skunked. It’s like Ray being happy with 5” if Scoot and Kevin miss out, but if they get 20+ and he gets 10” he gets irritable.

I’m not really trying to quantify it. I’m just thinking H5 shortwaves and vortmaxes and where they tend to move through the eastern US. But when I see this south of the Delmarva in early December, with cold in place, I just think of it as in the southerly extreme of probable outcomes.

Luck, probability, whatever you want to call it…it’s that. Obviously some winters have patterns more conducive to enhanced wintry threats and some don’t. But in the end I put them on a normalized curve. Most seasons fall +/- 1SD of the mean (I’m talking threats…not snowfall which is skewed). Then you get seasons where it feels like everything hits and seasons where it feels like everything misses. But there’s nothing that climatologically favors the Mid Atlantic over us. Sure, there’s some patterns where it can because of significant suppression, but they’re just getting a little lucky right now (which feels like bad luck to SNE).

It’s more the fact that these are at the ASOS sites in a 360 view.

Man where has this been all my life? We need more stations with cams. Maine has a ton. https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-73.6621,41.75626,-69.34447,46.42395

Found a site of ASOS weather cams. Looks like it’s legit haze.

BML vis is dropping with -23°. Could be trapped wood smoke…could be some IC/diamond dust.

So what are you? The +5? I thought you had elevation so in theory you shouldn’t be one of the big rad spots…you’re not SLK.

Congrats Errol airport with -26° Only -1.2° here so far on the hillside…maybe we’ll spike down at sunrise soon. 12z mins

Rice Krispies and beer?

If only NNE had some of that real cold down there to save on energy costs.

It’s like 5mph there. You live in the thermal belt.

-21 Maple Hollow

It’s mostly voodoo in this day and age. Of course that was 12z too and 18z came in flatter.