dendrite

I hope we get warm enough to get the ice out of the trees before the next blast of CAA. A couple hours at 40° would do it.

1.0”/0.08” Enough to cover the turkey shit.

11.9° -SN 0.5” new

Bump NE

1 today!

He developed the GRAF.

Max DGZ was up around H5-6. Euro had that punching through toward 00z. But I don’t think BGM was expecting much after 00z anyway?

14/1 today and they were not happy.

Hopefully just 5.4”

Beer?

That had the TS with it. Definitely some convection in there…looks like some graupel/snow pellets in the ptype algorithm despite high CC. Must be some rimed flakes in there.

Off hour name runs the past 36hrs have been more zonked…kind of a windshield wiper effect.

Warmer on MWN than HIE and BML at 10am so you know this is pretty shallow.

8.9F I don't mind snow or making some ice on the ponds, but these airmasses always suck. Especially with a lot of clouds around.

lol at putting your faith in the 12k nam when it’s well north of consensus.

1.1° with wind. Not fun for chickens.

Yeah that’s RH and wind streamlines at 700. The shading is RH…blue >95%. But you can see where those streamlines all converge in an axis NW-SE through New England where that light QPF hangs on. I could post the vorticity too and you’d see a max punching through here. Older runs were a little more flat and diffuse with shortwave energy.

There’s not a lot of moisture to work with in the profile. But if you loop the H5 vorticity trend you will see that s/w and embedded vortmax strengthening and slicing over CNE more with time. So yeah, a little dPVA and some H7 convergence and you get some mid level hangback snows after the main isentropic push affects SW SNE. I guess the key is how moist the low levels remain. If the globals were more NE and the nams were dry I’d be more pessimistic since the nam can sniff out that virga a little better with it’s extra vertical levels…but that isn’t the case. Of course the nam could be on the sauce anyway. It’s probably best to just ride a euro/consensus blend right now.

The main push of WAA forcing is well to our SW. Some of the models have some mid level hangback lighter precip even up to here. There could be some fluff factor to that, but the whole profile is pretty cold so you have to be careful about the kuchie getting out of control.

Put the kuchie down

Pretty good speed convergence initially there. 65-70kt flow screeching to a halt over SNE. A little stretching along that axis too. But you can see how it starts falling apart there 6hr later and that LLJ slides SE.

18.6F and roaring. There were snow showers most of the afternoon.