There’s been a subtle shift of trending the inv trough from SW ME more northward to the midcoast. Although I see the FV3 just came in with warning criteria here.
Subtle difference with the handling of the vortmax by the gfs xmas eve morning. It drives the dPVA a lot more south while the other models curl it up into the GOM.
This is more about the inverted trough possibility and not the initial overrunning in SNE.
Yeah both CMC models are pretty far north with the surface relection. I’d probably toss the gfs for now on a possible part deux unless the euro comes in south of ART.
Yeah tough run up there. ICON and euro still want that more north.
Goofus took that surface low from like BUF to way south of ACK so the trough set up way south. Most of the models have been taking it from ART to off the coast of BVY which would be better for you and me.