dendrite

Let’s get some snow first so we can torch it away.

Yeah this is roughly where the developing SPV and shortwave trough, that eventually slides under it, are right now. There’s lots of little tweaks in the flow that could help this or hurt this in the coming days. As others have said, the end result is we want more “curl” of the vortmax so we can punch that dPVA further north.

16° here but it should slowly climb the rest of the night

Skynet vs Graphcast

Father and son discussing weenies while mom tries to not choke on her American chop suey.

People need to calm down. We’re all having fun and joking about the ridging shown on Christmas. No one is calling for it…yet. With that said, I disagree to some extent. The 12z gefs gained a handful of members with strong SE ridges. Obviously you can’t expect 591dm to verify or be matched on a d16 ens lol. 12z eps is pretty warm looking for the holiday too. Hopefully it pans out cooler. I’d like to have pack for the holiday.

2015! (ok verification was a few days off)

ACATT

That’s 00z Here’s 12z

I wonder how much the op run is influencing this. The last 3 GEFS runs for Xmas eve.

It really wouldn’t take much to amp this up a little more…just need that SPV to drop in behind the speeding shortwave a little earlier/deeper.

You can’t stop her. You can only hope to contain her.

Holy shit.

588dm up to SNE. lol

12z GFS is going to be fun for Christmas. If you like 60s.

It’s kinda funny looking back at those charts I posted during the 80s. The first week of Dec in those decades were relatively warm minus 1989. Of course the scripts flipped in Jan many of those years including Jan 1990 which flipped warm.

You can look up some of these years. Here’s the “bottom 10” coldest Dec 1-8 periods for CON, ORH, BOS, and BDL

I get it. It’s a lot more difficult on the coast down there pre Christmas and like you said, these are the departures you need…although I’d argue Mooseville hitting -20s on 12/9 is probably more cold than we need…especially in the 2020s versus 1970s.

Ginxy may be the only one that loves snow in someone else’s yard as much as his.

I feel like the knives are a little sharper when regions south of us are getting multiple events and SNE is skunked. It’s like Ray being happy with 5” if Scoot and Kevin miss out, but if they get 20+ and he gets 10” he gets irritable.

I’m not really trying to quantify it. I’m just thinking H5 shortwaves and vortmaxes and where they tend to move through the eastern US. But when I see this south of the Delmarva in early December, with cold in place, I just think of it as in the southerly extreme of probable outcomes.

Luck, probability, whatever you want to call it…it’s that. Obviously some winters have patterns more conducive to enhanced wintry threats and some don’t. But in the end I put them on a normalized curve. Most seasons fall +/- 1SD of the mean (I’m talking threats…not snowfall which is skewed). Then you get seasons where it feels like everything hits and seasons where it feels like everything misses. But there’s nothing that climatologically favors the Mid Atlantic over us. Sure, there’s some patterns where it can because of significant suppression, but they’re just getting a little lucky right now (which feels like bad luck to SNE).

It’s more the fact that these are at the ASOS sites in a 360 view.

Man where has this been all my life? We need more stations with cams. Maine has a ton. https://weathercams.faa.gov/map/-73.6621,41.75626,-69.34447,46.42395

Found a site of ASOS weather cams. Looks like it’s legit haze.