I agree to a point. Record strong niño forcing is a concern, but there’s a relatively SSS there. It’s hard to see a path to a very cold winter, but snow is a wildcard.
I like snow on Xmas, but *unpopular opinion* one of my favorite Xmas mornings was 2015 when I watched my niece and nephews open gifts and then I sat out on the porch and had my coffee in the warm sun.