Warning flags were there. That elevated warm nose was just warm enough to produce mostly sleet CON-south. I think all models underestimated it a bit, but some of the mesos were a little more sleety looking. It was so thin on forecast soundings just above the cold wedge that models may have needed more vertical levels to really “see” that full +1C in there…just guessing there.
I thought 2m temps looked fairly spot on although I didn’t focus on what mesos had for everyone.