dendrite

I think the upper air has been fairly consistent compared to normal at this range. All of the players have been on the field for awhile whereas most storms we’re waiting for shortwaves to arrive from the Pacific for better sampling. But when you have a potent vort like that with arctic origin diving off the deep SE coast you get some funky dynamic things happening over the warm water.

-19 at the Xmas trees yesterday! Maybe -25 this morning?

Squash city. That W-E ribbon of vorticity is basically a 500mb front…NE flow above it and W flow south of it. The end of the PV lobe/trough/vortmax tries to dig, curl, and amplify but it just can’t recover enough to make the system significantly affect us at our lat/long. If we didn’t get that little extra shitstreak dropping south over Maine I think there would be a better ridging response over New England and that vort may dug off the Carolinas instead. It’s almost looks like that extra suppression forces the angular momentum to dig it further south. But maybe that’s just weenie physics to my naked eyes

Let’s keep it to weather or lack thereof.

-10ish down the road in the valley again…pushed -15 over by Winnisquam. Min was -1.7 here. Years ago that would’ve pissed me off, but now we take.

Do you have your own weather station or are you using a local site?

Haven’t really been able to bottom out here. Highs have been chilly but run of the mill mins.

TOL +6 IJD -10 BOS +12 OWD -15

A lot of fake cold out there this morning. Only -1 here on the hill so far though.

WTTTE

I had to double take the 20mb drop in 6hrs

Always garnish your dessert

Yeah hopefully it’s on the right path. I’ve felt like this comes west to some extent although I thought we’d be able to curl the vort more north with time and pull it off that way. But I’ve seen the eps mean flip flop with the op on runs many times before too. Hopefully we get more globals on board at 00z and the euro somewhat holds.

Sure…but this run takes it from the Bahamas to Bermuda and then to the Cape. Maybe it’s right, but I’d like to see it repeat something similar come 00z.

Last 4 runs…those light blue vorticity blobs are where it’s been placing those convective lows. I’m not going to pretend to know if it’s legit or not, but H5 doesn’t look a lot different otherwise at this time frame.

I think he was kidding? I hope.

The funny thing is it throws that convective low we’ve been tossing our way this run. It delivers snow so I suppose it’s correct now.

A wise wolf once told me to never trust 18z runs though

That vortmax on the end of the PV lobe swung in more westward this run…helped it amplify more before reaching the eastern seaboard.

LBSE

Except I was reading the old run

It’s marginal but ngl… I took notice of the extra brightness today. Maybe it’s because it’s been awhile since I saw full sun, but the midday shadows are starting to hit different.

Fricken pivotal reset me back to 12z

ICON didn’t dig very south again. Not believing it until other models do the same.