Yeah a week averaging -15 isn’t going to get us much snow. Even the biggie required a massive WAA push aloft despite the cold low levels. I’ve had enough with sub 500 thicknesses after this weekend.
The arctic is warming faster than the mid latitudes/equator so in theory that weakens the thermal gradient in the NHEM and hence a weaker thermal wind.
That’s what tends to happen in the warm season. The higher latitudes make a larger temperature recovery from winter and winds weaken and wavelengths shorten.
VDay 2016 hit -9 as well. Time an anomaly like that 3 weeks earlier and you’re probably pushing -12ish. But the setup is similar to the A tier ones we’ve recently had…arctic cold centered more in the lower levels and delivered more from the N than the WNW. We just need them a little more potent when delivered. The urban centers have heat island effects too so that’s another hurdle to overcomes.
BOS did -10° 3 years ago this Wednesday. I think that was the first time they did double digits below 0F since 1957.
But as for those yore top tier historical cold shots…those may be gone. The ones that bring sub zero temps to SNE in the afternoon or -10° up here…1855, 1857, 1917, 1933, 1934, 1943, etc. That next tier below like 2023 is still potent though.
19.7° here…chilly but a beautiful sunny day.
It’ll be interesting to see who hits or goes above 32° mid week to break the streaks. Those who avoid it will have a pretty long subfreezing streak.