SACRUS

Warmer that I would have thought

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Heat is back on as we are days away from Memorial Day lol

Down to 37 here last night.  More heat than AC through the first 3 weeks of the month - not even close.

You can see how Friday and most of Saturday could be cloudy as this  cut off moves moves through

Queue Albert Hammond - It never rains in southern California

San Diego or is it Laguna Beach style weather continues.  Onshore flow and temps in the upper 60s with no rain. ULL passes through Fri PM and Saturday with some unsettled showers and storms possible.  Otherwise more of the same Sunday and Memorial Day perhaps a tinge warmer.  The delayed warmth should get to most of the area on/around 5/28 with a warmer last weekend of the month shaping up on guidance.  First shot of 90s, watch those 80s get higher / enhacned by recent dryness 5/28 - 5/30. 

Beyond there,  longer range ECM would rebuild the ridge in the east in a more favorable location for a SW / W flow to bring some heat in early June while the GFS with cutoff city - time will tell. Will this be the 2008 style early June strong heat surge?

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2008 was hot?  No, 2010 was hot lol.  Warm and humid with high mins doesn't count in my book

 

Not referring to th summer overall but rather the strong heat in early June that followed the cool may.  Something like that is in the cards especially should it remain dryer than normal..

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Newark has only reached 70 degrees or higher on 9 days since March 1st. This is the 4 lowest number of days on record through May 18th. Big reversal from years like 2010, 2012, and 2015.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18	Missing Count
1	1966-05-18	4	0
2	1978-05-18	7	0
3	1967-05-18	8	0
4	2020-05-18	9	0
-	1997-05-18	9	0
5	1968-05-18	10	0
-	1940-05-18	10	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Mar 1 to May 18	Missing Count
1	2012-05-18	29	0
-	2010-05-18	29	0
2	1985-05-18	28	0
-	1977-05-18	28	0
3	1945-05-18	26	0
4	1981-05-18	24	0
-	1976-05-18	24	0
5	2015-05-18	23	0

Interesting mix there with subsequent summers -  the very hot 66, warm 78 and cool 67, 97 and normal 68, not sure of 1940.

California weather ensues this week.  Breezy but nice out with partly sunny skies in the mid - upper 60s today.  Onshore flow wont let go the next week but keeping the ULL well south and west till Fri PM / Sat when first shot at rain before more dry days look likely.  I Still think its a matter of delayed not denied as we move into a period of warmth with a potential 2008 style hot period.  First 90s on/around 5/28.  Not sure if thats the change to warmer but do see tendency for WC troughing and ridging east of HI to open June.

18 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1991 had the warmest May on record...none of the above years were developing la nina year...May 1992 had a heat wave...

Thank Unc.  I meant to write 1990. 1992 was Mt pinatubo effect.

31 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

Just a thought but what were the past summer JJA seasons like temp wise when both April and May ended up well below normal which seems more and more likely this year?

At EWR most recent examples lead to a cooler/wetter summer.  I do need to check 1991.  Not sure if we follow that trend yet.  Wetter likely a good bet overall again.

2003:
April:  -3.1
May: -3.9
Jun:  -3.2
Jul:  -0.3
Aug:  +1.8

1997:  Super Nino
April:  -2.1
May: -3.6
Jun:  -1.4
Jul :  -05
Aug:  -2.2
Sep : -1.4

1992:
April:  -2.7
May: -1.3
Jun:  +0.2
Jul:  -0.6
Aug:  -0.8
 

Up to a pleasant 65 with strong sun.But Not sure if this will be the current loop or cached but clouds slowly encroaching now

Made it to 79 yesterday a nice change from the week prior with snow showers and low 40s. 

Another beauty out there today. Clouds holding off west of the region wit onshore flow building. Currently 61 with a NNE wind now. 

Still wouldnt completely  write off all meaningful rain yet this week but model trends are dryer as TS Arthur  has less impacts Mon/Tue.  Cut off is pushed way south and west towards TN/VA area through Thu before lifting back out Fri and Sat.  Think the warmup is delayed not denied as we get to Memorial Day and the following week for first shot at 90s.  We'll see how it trends.  I think a 2008 style switch to a very hot period is still in the cards.

Probably a compromise between the now heavy QPF GFS and Euro which is now just west  of the area with the heavy rains.  Long duration cut off ULL Mon - Fri/Sat next week.  Still much uncertainty of timing and positions but likely see 3 or 4 of the 5 days mainly cloudy with 1 or 2 days very wet and a sneaky partly cloudy nice day.  Beyond there as we move into Memorial Day weekend we should see the ridge rebuild as the ULL moves out with warming temps and our first shot at some heat/ 90s into the Memorial day holiday and subsequent week 5/25.

68 degrees and clearing on our way to a third very nice day.

5/15 Highs

ACY: 86
EWR: 86
LGA: 86
BLM: 86
New Bnswk: 85
PHL: 85
NYC: 84
NYC: 84
TTN: 83
ISP: 79
JFK: 78
 

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Looks like my thoughts on the models going drier for next week may wind up be wrong. The overnight Euro was pretty wet and like you mentioned we will have to see how a PRE sets up for early next week.

It'll be interesting to track the ULL next week with the TS off the coast.  Mid Atlantic is a good bet for the heaviest but we'e not far off.  Wouldnt surprise me to sneak in a nice day (maybe Wed).  Looks like the ridging finally establishes itself on/around 5/23 in time for a warm Memorial Day as it looks now.

Should get the rest of the spotty rain to pass through before noon and clear things up for the warmest day of the year so far for many along with the first 80s for some places who missed it on My 3rd.

5/17 - 5/22 very unsettled with cutoff meandering along in the east.  Perhaps sneaking in a nice day.  Summer looks to arrive in time for Memorial day weekend with perhaps some consecutive warm to hot days and the seasons first 90s.

Another beauty out there today building on Wednesday's great weather.  Brief taste of summer Fri and some of Saturday before ocean flow and cutoff spoil an otherwise strong ridging pattern through  Fri 5/22.   Do think first shot of 90s isnt fa behind the ULL lifting out of the area in the 5/24-5/27 timeframe.

Dont think we are too far from our first 90s of the season / near memorial day weekend.

2020 projections

Hotter / wetter version of 2008.  Bookend hottest temps of summer fist half of June and early/mid August, Jul longest stretch of heat.. Possible century mark heat in Aug.  Thinking near normal to wetter overall. If things go to one way would argue more chance of warmth underscoring temps

90 degree (+) days 

PHL:  30 - 33
EWR: 31 - 34
NYC: 17 - 20
LGA: 27 - 30
New Bnswk: 26 - 29

Mostly sunny and looking like one of those nuttin but blue skies days.  

The cut off scenario looking more likely for next week so one past Saturday cooler and unsettled 5/17 - 5/21 before any chance of sustained warmth and the season's first 90s.  That looks more possible towards the last week of May (Memorial Day). 

Lows of 31 and 30 Fri night/Sat night (Sun am).  Currently mostly sunny and 51 here.  It  does look like a good area of clouds pushing in from PA, hope we can clear that up a it  as it  moves through.

May 14th tipping point to a more normal / warmer pattern.  Will need to see how stormy it gets Thu - Sun.  Sun out should yield second or first 80s for most.  Still looks potentially cut-off-ish towards early the following week 5/19.  Does look more active and with numerous troughs goig into the west coast.  So dont see a prolonged cool down or warmup staying dry...  More normal overall.

6 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What would you estimate the odds are of warmer weather?  Cutoff implies bdcf?

Id say at this point its too early but perhaps the tendency is to lean on the cooler/wetter scenario.  I think true sustained warmth and any  heat may be towards Memorial day weekend or early June.

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Just give me temps in the 70's for now, we can turn on the oven Memorial Day weekend.

Last weekend's oasis of warmth seemed so long ago.  Agreed on the 70s but Ill take the upper 50s/low 60s  with sun tomorrow and enjoy it :-).  I guess i brought the cooler weather when returning from a winter on the wc easter weekend.  

Slowly transitioning out of the severely below normal cool regime this week and back into the 60s / 70s with sunshine.  And longer range beyond  next weekend its either cutoff city or fist shot at 90s as deep trough looks to push into the west coast on Guidance.  Will be interesting to see how it evolves. 

Down to 31 last night.  Brisk and windy early March day outside.

72 here  clouds approaching now into NW -NJ

Looks like a solid 10 days of below to much below normal ahead of the next warmup on/around 5/14.

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models could be too quick to break down the pattern but as of now there's hints of warmer weather near or just after mid May. 

A lot of morning cloud debris could make 80F out of reach, will be close. 

80 is toast.  Mostly cloudy through noon and much of the afternoon.  Still a nice day overall.  The cool period looking dry but i woudlnt bet on it.  Id expect things becoming wetter as we go through the next 10 days.