SACRUS

2/21 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC

SREF:  1.5 / 14.1

2/21 00z SREF mean Total QPF  through 2/24 00z

Snow 10:1

For reference round timeframes for model runs for those new to this:

00z / 12Z

SREF: 7:30 PM / AM
NAM: 8:50 PM / AM
RGEM:  10:00 PM / AM
ICON: 9:50 PM / AM
GFS: 10:30 PM / AM
GFS AI AIGFS: 10:30 PM / AM
GGEM: 10:40 PM / AM
UKMET: 11:05PM / AM
GEFS: 11:30 PM / AM
Euro: 12:50AM / PM
Euro AI AIFS: 1:00 AM / PM

Shorter range models now coming into play within 84 - 60 - 48

RRFS
H NAM 3k
HRR
RPM
HRW
HRDPA (Canadian)

4 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/20 18z Summary

 

Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

SFRE F: 1.0
NAM: 2.3
RGEM: 0.6
ICON: 1.2
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.5
GFS: 2.2
GEFS: 1.7
EURO AI AIFS:  1.3
EURO : 0.8

Updated 1.4 avg (mean)

2/20 18z EURZO AI AIFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23 - 24



Snow 10:1

2/20 18z EURO AI AIFS

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

More snow 

12z through and beyond that timeframe was more but overall simialr but more in line with the eastward leaning quicker storm

UK through 66H with some more to come (similar to 12z) 

2/20 18z GEFS 24H Mean Total QPF

UKMET to 66 looked similar to 12z

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/20 18z Summary

 

Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

SFRE F: 1.0
NAM: 2.3
RGEM: 0.6
ICON: 1.2
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.5
GFS: 2.2

Updated

Just now, bluewave said:

I believe this would be a first for the GFS being the most tucked in near the coast among the other globals and being correct. The NAM has done it numerous times. But the only other big GFS coup was being more east in January 2015.

yeah you would almost expect to the the GEM (GGEM and RGEM) so amped by model biases. Its almost as if in an otherwise typical scenario to be concerned of rain/miz - the gfs is to se/its coming nw.  But not here.

2/20 18z GFS Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

2/20 18z GFS AI AIGFS Total  QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/20 18z Summary

 

Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

SFRE F: 1.0
NAM: 2.3
RGEM: 0.6
ICON: 1.2

updated

RGEM (GEMS) consistent

18z RGEM Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

18z ICON snow 10:1

2/20 18z ICN Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

The stroofle is runing (ICON)

From the low 30s to the upper 20s in the height of the storm NE-NJ/NYC (27)

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/20 18z Summary

 

Total QPF NYC 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

SFRE F: 1.0

NAM: 2.3

Nam added oofa

2/20 18z NAm Total QPF 2/22/2/23-24

still had light snow - lets hope we get 50% of this 

Just now, MJO812 said:

I made the nam out of my basement 

Were you hanging with Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini?