SACRUS

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

2/1 12z Summary

 

NYC 

ICON: 0
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.2
GFS: 0.7
GGEM: 0.8
UKMET: 0.1
GEFS: 0.3

updated

GEFS still lean right of the gfs 

2/18 12z UKMET Total QPF

2/18 12z UKMET closer and  close to the GFS/GEGM Solution - UKMET does have a suppressed bias (at least it used to)

47 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

2/1 12z Summary

 

NYC 

ICON: 0
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.2
GFS: 0.7
GGEM: 0.8

Updated

2/18 12z GGEM

Total QPF

2/18 12z GFS Total QPF

GFS AI AIGFS total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24

GFS AI AIGFS

2/1 12z Summary

NYC 

ICON: 0
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.2
GFS: 0.7
GGEM: 0.8
UKMET: 0.1
GEFS: 0.3

2/18 12z ICON Total QPF

ICON north of 00z but still a miss

Seasonal numerical forecasting euphoria to the doldrumms .  if you go back and check the threats / discussions from Jan 17/18 and the NC storm similar challenges with coastal formation and even some of the same models run to run changes.   Each situation is unique and perhaps as we go deeper into the season we can ween off the seasonal trends.  

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ukie is a rain/snow shower maybe if that 

yeah just a little south of 12z by 850 miles

2/18 00z GGEM

also a miss

GFS 1/10 of 12z

2/18 00z GFS

Total QPF GFS AI AIGFS:

00z GFS AI AIGFS

00z GFS AI AIGFS:

2/18 00z GFS AI AIGFS

2/18 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC

ICON: 0
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 
GFS: 0.3
GGEM: 0.3
UKMET: 0.2

2/18 00Z ICON goes the wrong way

Total QPF

Warmest daily dep from avg since Jan 22nd.

Today's split

EWR: 48 / 34 (+5)
NYC 47 / 35 (+5)