SACRUS
-
Posts
15,229 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by SACRUS
-
-
25 minutes ago, SACRUS said:
2/22 00z Summary
Total QPF NYC
/
Total 10:1 SnowSREF mean: 2.2 / 21
NAM: 2.8 / 27.5
Updated NAM-
1
-
-
2/22 00z NAM
Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

10:1 Snow

-
1
-
3
-
1
-
-
Snowside Heights and Snow Pleasant crushed in NJ
-
1
-
1
-
-
sref were a good precursor the nam would remain robust-
1
-
-
What it is: The National Blend of Models (NBM) is NOAA/NWS’s statistically post-processed blend that combines dozens of deterministic and ensemble models into a single, calibrated forecast grid used operationally across the U.S.
Models included: Core inputs typically include GFS, GEFS, ECMWF (Euro), ECMWF ensembles, NAM (12 km & 3 km), HRRR, RAP, CMC/GEM, UKMET, and select regional ensembles (availability varies by cycle and variable).
Weighting approach: Dynamic, variable-specific weighting is applied—models are weighted differently by forecast hour, parameter (QPF, snow, wind, temp), season, region, and recent skill, rather than a fixed average.
Post-processing & bias correction: Raw model output is statistically bias-corrected, smoothed, and calibrated using historical verification, climatology, and consistency checks to reduce noise, outliers, and known model biases.
Operational output: Produces probabilistic and deterministic fields (means, percentiles, PoPs, snowfall ranges) and serves as the baseline guidance for NWS forecast grids, with human forecasters adjusting for mesoscale and event-specific factors.
-
3
-
-
2/22 00z Summary
Total QPF NYC
/
Total 10:1 SnowSREF mean: 2.2 / 21
NAM: 2.8 / 27.5
NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5 -
2/21 21z SREF
Total QPF mean 2/22-2/23-24
Snow 10:1
-
4 hours ago, SACRUS said:
2/21 18z SummaryTotal QPF NYC
/
Snow 10:1 NYC
SREF: 2.1 / 19.6
NAM: 2.8 / 27.6
NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.3 / 12.9
RGEM: 1.1 / 11
GFS: 1.7 / 17.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.3 / 12.7
UKMET: 1.7 . 15.2
GEFS Mean : 1.8 / 18.2
Euro: 1.3 / 11.1
Euro AI AIFS: 1.2 / 11.4
SREF: 2.1 / 19.6
NAM: 2.8 / 27.6
NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.3 / 12.9
RGEM: 1.1 / 11
GFS: 1.7 / 17.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.3 / 12.7
UKMET: 1.7 . 15.2
GEFS Mean : 1.8 / 18.2
Euro: 1.3 / 11.1
Euro AI AIFS: 1.2 / 11.4Mean Total QPF (NYC): 1.68 inches
Mean 10:1 Snowfall (NYC): 16.2 inches
-
1
-
3
-
-
2/21 18z EURO AI AIFS:
Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24
Snow 10:1

-
1
-
-
41 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:
Do you have the snow map for this
I am unable to post it and pivotal doesnt offer it on the non subscription free page. NYC was general 12 - 15
-
1
-
-
4 hours ago, SACRUS said:
2/21 18z SummaryTotal QPF NYC
/
Snow 10:1 NYC
SREF: 2.1 / 19.6
NAM: 2.8 / 27.6
NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.3 / 12.9
RGEM: 1.1 / 11
GFS: 1.7 / 17.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.3 / 12.7
UKMET: 1.7 . 15.2
GEFS Mean : 1.8 / 18.2
Updated with GEFS mean(s) -
-
2/21 18z GEFS
Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Mean
Snow 10:1 mean

-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, SACRUS said:
2/21 18z SummaryTotal QPF NYC
/
Snow 10:1 NYC
SREF: 2.1 / 19.6
NAM: 2.8 / 27.6
NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.3 / 12.9
RGEM: 1.1 / 11
GFS: 1.7 / 17.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.3 / 12.7
UKMET: 1.7 . 15.2
Updated UKMET -
2/21 18z UKMET
Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24
Snow 1:1

-
3
-
-
2/21 GFS AI AIGFS
Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24
Snow 10:1
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, SACRUS said:
2/21 18z SummaryTotal QPF NYC
/
Snow 10:1 NYC
SREF: 2.1 / 19.6
NAM: 2.8 / 27.6
NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.3 / 12.9
RGEM: 1.1 / 11
GFS: 1.7 / 17.1
Updated GFS-
1
-
-
2/21 18z GFS
Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24
Snow 10:1

-
GFS to 12
-
2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:
RGEM is being stubborn
RGEM, UKMET and others are also quicker than NAm/GFS
-
1
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, SACRUS said:
2/21 18z SummaryTotal QPF NYC
/
Snow 10:1 NYC
SREF: 2.1 / 19.6
NAM: 2.8 / 27.6
NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.3 / 12.9
RGEM: 1.1 / 11Updated with RGEM
-
2/21 18z RGEM
Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24
V
Snow 10:1
-
2 hours ago, SACRUS said:
2/21 18z SummaryTotal QPF NYC
/
Snow 10:1 NYC
SREF: 2.1 / 19.6
NAM: 2.8 / 27.6
NAM 3K: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.3 / 12.9
Updated with ICON-
1
-
-
2/1 18z ICON
Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24
Snow 10:1



The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026
in New York City Metro
Posted
2/22 00z NAM 3k
Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24
S10:1 Snow
