SACRUS

Coldest temps i see on guidance for NYC at height of the storm around 3AM
29 hours before and after

This is whats lost to rain/mix lesser rates which the nams accounted for

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

You can see the western edge moving east on many of the models. Not as expansive of a precip field on the recent Mesos. I’m riding the razors edge here between a significant storm and something more run of the mill

It'll be all about the banding

2/22 NAM 3k 

2/22 12z NAM
 

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

There's actually 68, 10 inch or greater snowstorms in NYC since 1870. Did you cut off after a certain date?

It was a top 40 *(most recent)

I would be riding the radar / obs and as far as guidance:

From past storms and other general feedback 

Weighting (rule of thumb inside 6 hours):
HREF + HRRR (top tier) → RAP (thermals/p-type) → NAM 3km (structure/gradients)

2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Some of the models have cut back a bit but it's really noise at this point, this is still a really big storm with 12-20 areawide.

Deformation banding will gift some with huge totals and rob others - always the case its not such a uniform distribution as the globals and other models show.  QPF in general will be 1-1.4 aread wide ( 8-14 or so) and under those heaviest bands/banding  up to and exceeding 2-2.5 LE and that's where the >18-24 inches totals in those areas the target has been depicted in the Ocean - Monmouth cty and LI/SNE areas.

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms (Top 40 like the old radio countdowns) we may have a new smash hit coming in the top 15 

 Largest → Smallest

Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5"

Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9"

Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4"

Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9"

Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2"

Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0"

Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8"

Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0"

Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1"

Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7"

Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6"

Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4"

Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4"

Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0"

Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3"

Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2"

Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5"

Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0"

Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8"

Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7"

Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6"

Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0"

Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8"

Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7"

Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5"

Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5"

Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5"

Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0"

Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8"

Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6"

Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5"

Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4"

Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2"

Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9"

Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8"

Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7"

Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7"

Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6"

Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0"

Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

Combine the threads - Storm Discussion should include obs.  Just my 2 cents

36/36

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

2/22 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC
/
Total 10:1 Snow NYC c

 

 

SREF mean: 2.2 /  21
NAM: 2.8 / 27.5
NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5
ICON: 1.4 / 13.5
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3
GFS: 1.6 / 16.7
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6
GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8
GEFS: 1.7 / 17
UKMET: 1.2 / 11
EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.7
EURO:  1.4 / 12.8  

2/22 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC
/
Total 10:1 Snow NYC

SREF mean: 2.2 /  21
NAM: 2.8 / 27.5
NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5
ICON: 1.4 / 13.5
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3
GFS: 1.6 / 16.7
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6
GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8
GEFS: 1.7 / 17
UKMET: 1.2 / 11
EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.7
EURO:  1.4 / 12.8  

 

• Total QPF (NYC): 1.65 inches

• Total Snow (10:1, NYC): 16.0 inches

Biggest difference is the speed NAM-GFS vs RGEM/Euro etc otherwise very similar

2/22 00z EURO

Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

10:1 Snow

Not sure why we split threads keep it all together it al becomes obs by 4pm

2/22 00z Euro Ai AIFS

Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

10:1 Snow

nyc 10+ snowfalls storms

NYC (Central Park) Snowstorms ≥ 10.0"

1933–2026

Feb 11, 1933 – 10.0"

Dec 26, 1933 – 11.2"

Jan 23–24, 1935 – 13.0"

Mar 7–8, 1941 – 18.1"

Feb 20–21, 1947 – 10.7"

Dec 26–27, 1947 – 26.4"

Dec 19–20, 1948 – 16.0"

Mar 18–19, 1956 – 11.6"

Mar 20–21, 1958 – 11.8"

Dec 21–22, 1959 – 13.7"

Mar 3–4, 1960 – 14.5"

Dec 11–12, 1960 – 15.2"

Feb 3–4, 1961 – 17.4"

Jan 12–13, 1964 – 12.5"

Feb 7, 1967 – 12.5"

Feb 9–10, 1969 – 15.3"

Jan 19–20, 1978 – 13.6"

Feb 5–7, 1978 – 17.7"

Feb 19, 1979 – 12.7"

Feb 11–12, 1983 – 17.6"

Mar 13–14, 1993 – 10.6"

Feb 11, 1994 – 12.8"

Feb 4, 1995 – 10.8"

Jan 7–8, 1996 – 20.2"

Feb 16–17, 1996 – 10.7"

Dec 30, 2000 – 12.0"

Feb 16–17, 2003 – 19.8"

Dec 5–7, 2003 – 14.0"

Jan 27–28, 2004 – 10.3"

Jan 22–23, 2005 – 13.8"

Feb 11–12, 2006 – 26.9"

Dec 19–20, 2009 – 10.9"

Feb 10, 2010 – 10.0"

Feb 25–27, 2010 – 20.9"

Dec 26–27, 2010 – 20.0"

Jan 26–27, 2011 – 19.0"

Feb 8–9, 2013 – 11.4"

Jan 21–22, 2014 – 11.5"

Feb 13–14, 2014 – 12.5"

Jan 22–24, 2016 – 27.5"

Dec 16–17, 2020 – 10.5"

Jan 31–Feb 3, 2021 – 17.4"

Jan 25–26, 2026 – 11.4"

2/22 00z UKMET

Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

10:1 Snow

GEFS more robust than GFS

2/22 00z GEFS

Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24 Mean

Snow 10:1

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i was here in 78 83 94 96 2006 2010 2016 i seen all the big snowstorms in nyc..

Font forget 2003

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

2/22 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC
/
Total 10:1 Snow

 

 

SREF mean: 2.2 /  21
NAM: 2.8 / 27.5
NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5
ICON: 1.4 / 13.5
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3
GFS: 1.6 / 16.7
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6
GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8

Updated

2/22 00z GGEM

Total QPF 2/22-2/23-24

10:1 Snow