SACRUS

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 00Z QPF  - NYC

 

ICON: 1.5 
GFS: 1.2 
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9
GGEM: 1.2 (50% sleet)
UKMET: 1.2  (90% snow)
GEFS *mean: 1.1
Euro AI AIFS: 1.1
Euro: 0.9

Updated

Euro total QPF storm

25-40% sleet

Snow starts to arrive betwen 3am - 8am Sunday

2 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

It’s only our to hour 54 from what I can see and a lot of people are asleep lol. But ya the EURO AI would bring some sleet to the area around hr 93-96

it didnt seem like much with the snow 10:1 at over 11 inches in 1.1 QPF

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 00Z QPF  - NYC

 

ICON: 1.5 
GFS: 1.2 
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9
GGEM: 1.2 (50% sleet)
UKMET: 1.2  (90% snow)
GEFS *mean: 1.1
Euro AI AIFS: 1.1

Updated

H48

1 minute ago, KeithB said:

How is this compared to the previous run or two?

1 minute ago, KeithB said:

How is this compared to the previous run or two?

Looks fairly consistent to me

Euro AI AIFS

euro 00z ai aifs yotal QPF storm

GEFS total QPF mean storm

56 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 00Z QPF  - NYC

 

ICON: 1.5 
GFS: 1.2 
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9
GGEM: 1.2 (50% sleet)
UKMET: 1.2  (90% snow)

Updated

UMET 1/22 00Z Total QPF - storm

Ends after here (monday 5-6 PM)

Still going at Monday PM

UK

UKIE 

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

CMC isn't my favorite model but it's still a potential solution. One thing the CMC and rgem were consistently over amplified in past years at this range. 

GGEM (CMC)

Common biases

Over-deepens coastal lows

Track often too far north or west

QPF inflation → snow maps run hot

Can be noisy run-to-run