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SACRUS

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    June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    76/62 here.  Next few days cut off over the northeast with lots of Northely flow and unsettled. Best possibility to pickup widespread rain in a while ahead of the hottest weather of the season.  Hope this satellite shot isnt cached but very interesting visible spin this morning.  clouds deck and showers to the NY border/Hudson valley.  Believe Wed is the wetter / mostly cloudy day but cant imagine Thu is mostly sunny as some forecasts show.  We'll see how much the park can add to overgrowth to limit maxes the next 4-7 days.

    By Friday the flow is more N-NW and the warmer air will funnel down into the area with Friday being the hottest day of the season so far in many places with mid 90s possible.  4th July looks to start warm and cool later in the afternoon/ evening as wind go NE for a period, especially along the beaches.  Sunday looks like a Southern California type day ahead of the what should be the a period of heat and first widespread strong heat and sustained heat wave 7/6 - 7/11.  EWR/ LGA id go 4 -5 90+ and NYC 1 -3  in the period.  Maxes may see 95+ heat possible on more than one day.  Overall looking warm to hot.

     

    vis_nj_anim.gif

     

     

    • Like 5

    June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Just now, LibertyBell said:

    s0 7/3 should be low 90s for everyone?

    I wonder if we will get the torch we did last July (it happened later in the month last year), we were tantalizingly close to 100 (99 twice!) with heat indices at record levels, near 120.

     

    Max temp at EWR/LGA is 93 and 90 NYC , 89 JFK so far, and Fri looks to match or exceed that as it looks now.

    • Like 1

    July 4th weather

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    No real changes other than Saturday is looking warmer with less onshore flow.  Overall looking dry the whole holiday weekend.  Still need to watch any changes with possible onshore flow by July 4th evening and Sunday.

    Beach areas in NJ may be warmer than thought on Sunday but will keep forecast as is.

    90 Degree Days

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

     

    2020:

    PHL: 5  (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
    EWR: 5  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    TTN: 4 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    LGA: 5 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
    ACY: 5 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
    TEB: 2 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul:   ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
    NYC: 2 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    JFK:  (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    ISP: (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
    New Bnswk: 4(April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

    89 degree days;

    New Brnswick: 3
    ACY: 1
    TEB: 2
    LGA: 3
    TTN:1
    EWR: 1
    PHL: 2
    BLM: 1
    JFK:1

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    6/29

    ACY: 92
    EWR: 91
    PHL: 90
    TTN: 90
    JFK: 89
    New Brnswk: 89
    TEB: 89
    LGA: 89
    BLM: 87
    NYC: 87
    ISP: 85

    June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Just now, uofmiami said:

    Have a hunch in a few days, Wed-Thu, the guidance will mute the heat in the extended. It’s been the pattern this summer so far & until the heat is within a few days on the models, I’m not biting on a heatwave. 

    For sure, certainly a possibility.  Overall warmer than normal (+2 - +3 ) with real heat /records muted by ridge axis being too north.  As we push through we may see this expand and the stronger heat center more south of where it has been.  Or it could go north across the poles into the south pole.

    June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    81/63 and a bit drier then the past 2 days.  Currently mostly sunny but clouds building down from the north.  Overall anther warm day that may see the sunnier spots bet guidance and nab a 90 degree reading.  Trough builds down and cuts off over the northeast creating unsettled weather Tue (6/30) - Thu (7/2).  More N / NE flow component this week with Wed and Thu looking to be mainly cloudy and could see widespread showers. 

     

    The trough / ULL is pushing out by Fri and the winds go more W/NW pushing the heat into the region.  July 4th should start warm then see more of a NE cooler flow push in for the evening which continues Sunday. Warmer flow kicks of a hot week by Mon 7/6 (coastal/beach areas by Tue 7/7).  Off to the races 7/6 and beyond with chance at strong heat and seasons first widespread heatwave.

    July 4th weather

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

     

    Holiday weekend starts off hot Fri 7/3, still warm Sat but 'cooler' air via N/NE flow likely to build in by the lat afternoon Sat and Sun.  By Monday the flow is going back west and the week looks hot..  

     

    Forecast currently dry

    EWR:
    Fri 7/3: 92
    Sat 7/4: 89 (cooler by late afternoon)
    Sun 7/5 : 85

    Belmar/Lavalette:
    Fri: 87
    Sat: 80
    Sun: 77

     

     

     

    • Like 1

    90 Degree Days

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

     

    2020:

    PHL: 4  (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 4 ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
    EWR: 4  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 4 ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    TTN: 3 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 3; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    LGA: 5 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
    ACY: 4 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 4  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
    TEB: 2 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul:   ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
    NYC: 2 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    JFK:  (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    ISP: (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
    New Bnswk: 4(April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

    89 degree days;

    New Brnswick: 2
    ACY: 1
    TEB: 1
    LGA: 2
    TTN:1
    EWR: 1
    PHL: 2
    BLM: 1

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    6/28

    ACY: 95
    LGA: 93
    EWR: 93
    PHL: 92
    BLM: 92
    New Brnswk: 91
    TEB: 91
    TTN: 90
    NYC: 90
    JFK: 86
    ISP: 85

    June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Already 81 / 69 here.  Looking sunny for a while. Should get into the low 90s today for many spots with storms later.  Hope to get some much needed rains.  Mon and Tue more of the same with temps near 90 assuming more sunshine.  Tue - Thu cut off over New England keep the flow out of the N and chances for unsettled weather each of the three days.

     

    Beyond there the ULL is moving off New England by Friday and things heat up for the Fourth of July weekend.  Another weakness pushes into the TN valley which may cause some onshore winds Mon (7/6) mainly on the coast.  Overall hot pattern the week of 7/5 with mainly scattered storms as things are looking.  ECM is building another very strong ridge into the GL by the 12th but that is way out there.  LEts see if the tendency this season is relenting and the 7/5 week sees the first widespread heatwave potential.

    July 4th weather

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Holiday weekend looking warm and relatively rain free aside from stray showers.  Fri (the 3rd)  and Saturday in the park for the 4th of July  look to be the hotter days before Sunday where winds may go more NE.  Will need to watch the progression of the ULL to see if it does move out by Fri.  

    June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    70/66 here as humidity has increased quite a bit.  Line of light showers coming through and wall to wall clouds for the most part back to Harrisburg.  That should get in the way of any 90s or any stronger heat that was possible.  If we get enough breaks in clouds we'll see if anyone can squeak in a 90 but doubtful.  Looks less cloudy tomorrow ahead of any scattered storms in the evening as highs again approach 90 with more of the same on Monday. 

     

    Trough and ULL build down by Mon night (6/29) and lingers over or off the New England coast till Friday.  Still think with that proximity showers and rain chances are increased tue - fri.  By Friday the main ULL is lifting out allowing for a warm Jul 3 / 4th.   Another weakness is cutting off in the Mid Atlantic by 7/5 and pushing west towards TN by 7/6.  That could lead to (go figure) more onshore flow for a day or two till the 6th.  Beyond there lots of warm air over the region.

    • Like 1

    June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

    I don't see anything beyond what we've been seeing so far. Probably just upper 80s to low 90s. 

    Nothing crazy for July. 2010-2011 ain't walking through that door. 

    The strongest heat will likely be to our north this season.

    If we are talking 100s there is nothing showing that currently.  Although in 2011 the 100s waited till later that month.  LGA and EWR were able to reach low 90s Mon with 850 temps of 16c.  I think we are looking overall warm to hot and should we miss widespread storms and rains Sat and between 7/1 - 7/3 the tendency will be for temps to outperform guidance on the sunnier days.  850s look  between 16c- 18c by the 3rd waiting for the flow to come around to from the west.  The heat has over performed to the north and as we see the ridge flatten and expand he week of Jul 6 - 11 may see much above normal temps.  

     

    July 4th weather

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Just about a week away.  ULL looks to push out by the fourth but linger off New England coast.  Flow goes N/NW and warming by later Sat and the 5th. Looking overall dry and warm with cooler along the beaches and NJ shore Sat.  Sunday looks to begin a hot stretch that looks to linger beyond the first week of July.

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