SACRUS

yesterdays highs;

6/12:

EWR: 88
LGA: 88
ACY: 87
PHL: 86
BLM: 86
New Brnswck: 86
NYC: 85
ISP: 84
TEB: 84
TTN: 84
JFK: 83

Palm Springs kind of morning 67/48 off a low of 58.

Just a tremendous bright and cooler June weekend with mostly sunny skies and nice breeze / good sleeping weather.  ULL will  take a midnight train to Georgia ans setup down in the Southeast the first half of the week.  Persistent onshore flow but mainly dry conditions will make it more May-like than mid June-like through Wed.  Warming Thu and Fri and we'll see with a week of dryness and a warmer flow if we can see the seasons first heatwave for the warmer spots 6/20 - 6/22 ahead of next front. Beyond there looks warm for most of the nation on/around 6/25 - but thats almost 2 weeks from now.  Will need to see if any variation with the ULL can muck up Wed or Thu, doesnt appear that way now.  Onward and upward.

Stations thru the first 11 days

LGA: +4.7
EWR: +4.5
NYC:  +3.3
TTN: +2.9
JFK: +2.1
 

Queue the Rascals  - It's A Beautiful Morning, 79 / 55

0.24 in the bucket yesterday as the heaviest amounts stayed south towards Ocean country in NJ>

ULL looks to be going south similar to the May progression.  Onshore flow on the go Sun - Thu next week.  I do think with enough sun (despite the easterly flow) temps will over perform Mon Tue. But Wed and Thu may be cloudier and potential misty.  Beyond there thing warm up by Friday (6/19) with Sat (6/20) - Tue (6/23) possible first heatwave potential as the big heat building in the plains and GL overspreads the Northeast.  Way out there as we close June with an eye on Jul it looks overall warmer as WC ridging again pushes east into the Rockies / Plains...

Tropical morning with warm humid breeze and clouds 79/72.  Should clear out by the early afternoon and see a few nice days to end the week and start the weekend.

Sunday (6/14) - Fri / Sat (6/19-20) ULL meanders around the east coast.  Will need to see if we can clear the cutoff out sooner and where the heaviest rain targets.  ECM would be south and GFS would be west, still looks like Wed is the wetter day.  Beyond there big heat continues to build into the Rockies-Plains and GL which seems to want to overspread east by 6/21.  Does look like it could be a warm to hot but plenty of storms activity.  

6/10

New Brnswck: 91
PHL: 91
TTN: 90
ACY: 87
BLM: 86
EWR: 86
TEB: 86
NYC: 85
LGA: 85
ISP: 79
JFK: 79

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 1  (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 2 ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 2  (April: 0; May:  0; June:2  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 1 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 1; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 2 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 2  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: (April: 0; May: 0 ; June:1  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB:  (April: 0; May: 0 ; June:  ; Jul:   ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC:  (April: 0; May: 0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK:  (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk:1 (April:0 , May:1 , June: , July: ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 2
ACY: 1
TEB: 1

BLM: 1

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6/10

New Brnswck: 91
PHL: 91
TTN: 90
ACY: 87
BLM: 86
EWR: 86
TEB: 86
NYC: 85
LGA: 85
ISP: 79
JFK: 79

78/69 here as the tropical airmass ensues. Winds NE here.    Should warm up to the mid 80s but 90s may be tough north of Philly today.

Overnight runs continue with a wacky cutoff / ULL period from Sunday 6/14 - 6/20.  Pending on where the ULL centers will determine the heaviest rains.  06 GFS pushes the ULL offshore by Wed (go figure) while Euro suite has it similar to the May brigade near KY, AR, TN.  Either way unsettled period.  beyond there plenty of heat building in the plans and GL.

6/9

LGA: 91
EWR: 91
TEB: 89
BLM: 89
New Brnswck: 88
PHL: 88
NYC: 87
TTN: 86
ACY: 85
ISP: 83
JFK: 81

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 1  (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 1 ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 2  (April: 0; May:  0; June:2  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN:  (April:0 ; May:  0; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 2 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 2  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: (April: 0; May: 0 ; June:1  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB:  (April: 0; May: 0 ; June:  ; Jul:   ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC:  (April: 0; May: 0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK:  (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: (April:0 , May:0 , June: , July: ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 2
ACY: 1
TEB: 1

BLM: 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

6/9

LGA: 91
EWR: 91
TEB: 89
BLM: 89
New Brnswck: 88
PHL: 88
NYC: 87
TTN: 86
ACY: 85
ISP: 83
JFK: 81

2PM Roundup;

LGA: 89
EWR: 87   
New Brnswck: 87
TEB: 87
NYC: 86
BLM: 86
PHL: 85
TTN: 83
ACY:  83
ISP: 80
JFK: 79

Noon roundup;

LGA: 84
EWR: 84
ACY: 84
NYC: 83
New Brnswck: 83
TEB: 83
BLM: 82
PHL: 81
TTN: 81
ISP: 81
JFK: 80

1 hour ago, frd said:

Do you think there is a risk of ridge runners and severe weather moving NW to SE in such a pattern ? Looks interesting at this time frame, even though it is way out there. 

 

Will be interesting to see how it evolves.  Could be for someone 

82 / 57

Summer breeze blowin

75 / 52 here at 9:30.  Off a low of 53.

Looks like  bit of a difficult to pin down type of pattern shaping up in the 6/14 - 6/20 period with ULL undercutting ridging.  Wont be rain everyday but pending on where the ULL(s) setup may bring some much cooler /wetter weather for part of that period.  Beyond there Rockies ridge should push east again to close out June, but center of ridge may favor warm but stormy.   

9 hours ago, forkyfork said:

guess the date of any airport's first 80 degree dewpoint

july 7

7/3

Made it down to 49 last night.  Up to 66 already with California style weather again.  Should see temps get close to or exceed 90 Tue and Wed. 850MB temps pushing 18-20c Wed before storms then again on Friday.

Overnight models still indicting a switch to a somewhat cooler period arriving this coming Saturday (6/q13) with a trough into the EC and ULL over Maine. There is a split in the speed in which the gfs, ECM  clear out the trough between 6/17 and 6/21 (06 gfs rebuilds trough).   Take the split  with a  push to warmer and more ridging 6/18 or 19th .  We shall see.  Very hot temp/airmass build into the Rockies and push into the plains and GL later in the run...

Another great beach day. 71/52 here now

Overnight models continue to have higher heights in the east Mon - Fri overall and earlier risk of onshore flow seem muted with more heat tue -wed ahead of the front and again on Friday.  The front and trough arrive by next weekend 6/13 and that's where it looks about 7 days of trouging and ULL north so cooler and need to watch how wet 6/13 - 6/19.  Big heat in the rockies and plains should spill onto the GL and NE beyond there s we flatten  out the trough and start to  build heights 

After Thu 6/11, looking like 7 - 10 days of persistent trough into the E coast/Northeast and possible rather wet.  There will be some tremendous heat building into the Rockies/Plains that could be poised to offer a very hot finish to June,  on/around 6/21 and beyond.  Perhaps the flip back to the warmer regime.  Its way out there.

6/6

EWR: 91
PHL: 90
LGA: 90
New Nrnswck: 89
ACY: 89
BLM: 88
TEB: 88
TTN: 87
NYC: 86
JFK: 86
ISP: 82

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 1  (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 1 ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 1  (April: 0; May:  0; June:1  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN:  (April:0 ; May:  0; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 1  (April: 0; May: 0; June: 1  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: (April: 0; May: 0 ; June:1  ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB:  (April: 0; May: 0 ; June:  ; Jul:   ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC:  (April: 0; May: 0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK:  (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul:  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: (April:0 , May:0 , June: , July: ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

first 90's of the season.

6/6

EWR: 91
PHL: 90
LGA: 90
New Nrnswck: 89
ACY: 89
BLM: 88
TEB: 88
TTN: 87
NYC: 86
JFK: 86
ISP: 82

Already up to 79 here 79/71.

Perhaps first 90s with enough sun.  Even before this weeks rains the park was running 3 - 4 degrees below other sites so the park will have to wait till late June or some pruning.

Do think Tue or Wed inland and warmer spots could yield some 90s before the northeast looks to get locked in a wetter period with potential ULL(s) around and influencing the period 6/13 - 6/18.  Sat through Wed does look to dry things out then we'll have to how things evolve beyond that.

Recent rains Wed - Sat AM:

BLM: 3.51
New Bsnwk: 2.52
TTN: 1.87
JFK: 144
EWR: 1.26
NYC:  0.93
ISP: 0.67
LGA: 0.61

Not sure if but likely due to the warmer winter there is a tremendous amount of birds and squirrels this season.

Remnants of Cristobal look to go  right up the Mississippi  next 5 days.   Once past today's storms and showers it looks dry again till mid next week.   Ridge builds Mon - Wed a bit too north with flow going more northerly and onshore.  Monday could be a sneaky shot at 90 in the warmer inland spots but more onshore by Tue/Wed ahead of the front.  Agree with CIK that heights look to flatten then rise on/around 6/16.  Interesting pattern right on near normal slightly warmer and will see if wetter overall can continue.  

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Newark on track for a top 10 latest first 90 degree day.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
#1 1972	07-02 (1972)	91	09-17 (1972)	93	76
#2 1958	06-26 (1958)	92	09-26 (1958)	90	91
#3 2003	06-23 (2003)	90	08-27 (2003)	90	64
#4 1963	06-19 (1963)	90	08-09 (1963)	92	50
#5 2014	06-17 (2014)	91	09-06 (2014)	95	80
1935	06-17 (1935)	90	08-13 (1935)	90	56
#6 1982	06-16 (1982)	90	08-05 (1982)	90	49
#7 1954	06-13 (1954)	90	08-25 (1954)	91	72
#8 1983	06-12 (1983)	92	09-20 (1983)	92	99
#9 1997	06-10 (1997)	91	08-17 (1997)	94	67
1967	06-10 (1967)	91	08-18 (1967)	90	68
#10 1952	06-09 (1952)	90	09-13 (1952)	94	95

weighted on the cooler side for overall summer averages. 67, 82, 97, 52, 72.  Exceptions 54, 83, 58.  More normal 2014, 35