SACRUS

See how things progress but potentially looking like the next multiple day warmup to and above normal  on/around 5/14.

Not sure we will hit the high end of projected highs but should things clear a bit 80 not out of reach.  Cant add the loop (cached on may 1) 

Beauty out there 68 so far.  Back into the dinginess next 10 days.  Looking like till later part of May for a  possible transition into less troughing in the east.  2008 feel to me, ended the cool with a resounding heatwave.  

On 4/26/2020 at 10:23 AM, SACRUS said:

 

A week away but its currently looking that with enough sunshine next Sun (5/3) and/or Mon (5/4) could see the warmest temps of the season before a return to cooler weather into the 5th.

Not betting on it but models hinting brief warm up as transient ridging moves through ahead of the next trough.

Overall it does look like a slower transition away from the sustained troughing/cooler weather we've had since around Easter.  Somewhat reminiscent of 2008 (so far).

Still think (Sunday 5/3) could yield the warmest temps of the spring so far which isnt much a feat.  Beyond there by 5/5 back to the cool/wet.  Perhaps as we get into the 5/13 range things may shift a bit.  2008 migrated into a very hot first week of June.

A week away but its currently looking that with enough sunshine next Sun (5/3) and/or Mon (5/4) could see the warmest temps of the season before a return to cooler weather into the 5th.

Not betting on it but models hinting brief warm up as transient ridging moves through ahead of the next trough.

Overall it does look like a slower transition away from the sustained troughing/cooler weather we've had since around Easter.  Somewhat reminiscent of 2008 (so far).

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

read above.   -NAO, -EPO pattern for awhile.       Meanwhile today is shaping up to be nice-sunny and low 60's here

Last nights runs showed more of the same overall trough into the east with a day or two of transient warmth towards or slightly above normal the next 10 days to 2 weeks..  Still thinking  into the first week of May we return back to a warmer pattern, more a bit of sustained umph...

Brief reprieve from the recent cool Sun (upper 60s) and Tues (near 70) before more cool unsettled weather Wed - Fri. .  Troughing looks to linger into late April. Think it may take till on/around May 4 to see more sustained warmth into the area.

9:41

60 here.

About an inch on the grass 0.41 in the bucket.   

Cool looking sat loop (real-time)

33/32 here mod snow .5 on the ground

Through Nov 8th departures

EWR: -3.6
NYC: -2.5
LGA: -2.9
JFK:  -2.8
ISP: -2.8
TTN:  -5.3

Look to add to these negatives through the 18th then moderation 11/18 - 11/23-24ish before next cold period to end the month.   Looking like a lock for a -3 or colder month for many,

Down to 19 - coldest temp since March 7th here. .

Partial Clearing into C-PA now looks to get here by 3. Rain ends between 1 and 2.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html

hauling and through MD/DE and almost SNJ.

Yesterday more sunny than forecasted and today more cloudy

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html

Add another great weekend to the overall (majority) streak going back to Memorial Day, July 4th, Labor day etc..

Today looks great! Made it down to 46 last night and likely make a run at  the low 70s here.

10 hours ago, doncat said:

My station  has hit 80° once in Nov, and that was on the 3rd in 2003.

I recall that and some readings (in Staten Island at the tme) in 1993.  Will needs to check but thought it was later in the month too, making it really impressive before the change locked in.

Edit - saw you replied.  Was 79 here as well that warm Nov 15th  day in 1993.  80 at LGA/EWR

1950 saw the month (nov) start off hot 85/84  in Newark.

Currently partly sunny sandwiched between the clouds from Sub Tropical storms and approaching clouds to the west.

The next period to watch for strong warmth to record highs (in the extreme) would be starting net weekend 10/20 - 10/23 period.  Pending on  how things progress we could be looking 75 - 80 range, perhaps above.   We'll have to watch the center and positioning of the ridge and with clouds and any S / SE flow developing to limit the potential.  

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

While that's probably not the most likely scenario, it is a possibility sometime after mid-October if things turn out a little warmer than currently shown on the guidance. November would be less likely, as such readings are relatively rare.

That timeframe to watch for any shot at upper 70s to low 80s would be Oct 20th / 21s.  It'll be interesting to track as guidance is suggesting heights build and 850s peak in the 10-15c range.  Get enough sunshine and its very doable.  

Northen California like feel today

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NE/anim8vis.html

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice if the Euro is correct about the stalled front merging with a coastal storm this week. Rain amounts like this would go a long way toward ending the drought conditions around here. 
 

 

Id count on it - we're overdue for a deluge