SACRUS

6/4

New Brnswck: 89
PHL: 89
LGA; 88
BLM: 88
TTN: 88
EWR: 88
ACY: 87
TEB: 86
ISP: 84
NYC: 84
JFK: 83

11AM Rounup

EWR: 83
BLM: 83
New Brnswk: 82
LGA: 82
ACY: 82
PHL: 82
JFK: 01
TEB: 81
TTN: 81
ISP: 80

NYC: 79

Transitioned into a warmer/wetter pattern overall. First shot at 90s today and tomorrow depending on clouds.  next shot Tue - Thu (6/9 - 6/11) ahead of the remnants of Cristobal. Could be sharp cut off near city/coast for onshore flow.  Beyond there  , 6/12 - 6/15 ULL  north of the region looks to keep things potentially wet and near normal by way of higher mins with heights poised to rise mid month.  Dont believe there is any likelihood of locking in any sustained cool or warm.  Overall appears to be near or above normal and much wetter than the last 7 weeks.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

If all the clouds and convection prevent a first 90 for the warm spots this week, then it may be a while longer. EPS indicating a potential blocking pattern emerging in about  8-10 days. So places like Newark could see a very late first 90 this year if clouds and convection win out this week.

 

Pending on what your timing of this week but there is a possible window 6/9 - 6/11 ahead of the remnant tropical low/subsequent cold front.  We'll see if EWR can get enough sun and heating Fri.

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The pollen is bad today 

Been a rough few days, heres hoping for some rains tomorrow for allergies and plants/veggies sake.

Cloudy and cool morning off a low of 47 Mon night,   did drop to 40 Sunday night.

We'll see if clouds cap first shot at 90s Wed / Fri for the warmer spots.   Believe we are transitioning to an overall warmer and wetter phase which should be the summer theme.

Should we miss 90s this week  -  the period 6/9 - 6/11 should yield more widespread heat ahead of the remnants of the Gulf storm followed by trough 6/11  - 6/13 with the ridge looking to be building back behind it.  Doubt any prolonged heat or cool as plenty of troughs moving along between rising heights.  Active June may be en route. 

Heights look to come up 6/3 - 6/6 before the next cold front then ridging looks to expand out of the Plains/ Great Lakes towards 6/10.  Need to watch if  more troughing over Canadian Maritimes blunts the ridge.  Still think first 90s 6/7 - 6/11 period even in the park.

Park: 6/11

EWR: 6/10

Made it to 86 yesterday after back to back 80s Wed/Thu.  Today looks spectacular (wish we could have had this last memorial day weekend) but none the less low 80s and lowering humidity with partly to mainly sunny skies. Beach weather.

Warmer overall temps appear to be coming closer to  fruition on guidance in the 6/7 and beyond period.  Ridging moves from the Plains and GL into the east  in the period but appears to be potentially active storm wise.  Would seem likely for the first 90s of the season between 6/7 and 6/12.  Could be heading into the warmer but wetter theme for the summer.  Will see how it goes and if any strong heat can overspread the area a kin to 2008.

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i think we make a late run at 90 with these clouds starting to burn off

Pushing 85 here now but some storms popping in E_PA and WNJ now

A few breaks in the clouds and just hit 80/71 here with a S-SW breeze.  

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another oddity this May was the monthly high and low temperature relationship between BTV and EWR. BTV doesn’t usually beat Newark by 9 degrees for a May monthly high  temperature. The monthly minimum temperature is also not usually within 2 degrees at both stations. 
 

Monthly max/min

2020

BTV...95/32

EWR...86/34

2019

BTV...79/35

EWR...90/43

2018

BTV....88/36

EWR...94/44

2017

BTV...93/33

EWR..94/43

2016

BTV...91/33

EWR..96/40

 

 

ULL and persistent onshore flow last 10 days + with ridge axis too far north and cloud cover the past 2 days curbing the heat here.  Beyond the very anomalous cool coming Sunday  - Tue it looks to be more normal overall with next ridge looking to build around June 7th or 8th on the latest guidance.  Persistent troughs going into the west coast.  

Up to 80 Thu for third straight day.  Clouds in the way of first 90s  Thu-Sat.   First 70 degree dewpoint this year today.

Cooler dryer air in time to open June.  Then a moderating back to normal 6/4 - 6/6.  Beyond there we'll see if we get the ridge to build in a more favorable spot for the seasons first heat into the region.

Back to back 80's here.  More cloudy than yesterday but more steamy overall.  

EWR: 79
NYC: 79
LGA: 78

Up to 80 yesterday with strong late May sunshine and a bit of humidity.  Today more of the same - low level clouds which may be tougher to burn off ahead of more clouds coming in from storms to the south.  Winds more ESE and dewpoints remaining in the low 60s before more steamy air arrives Thu and Fri on a  more Southerly flow.

Looking ahead ;

Thu/Fri/Sat (5/28 - 5/30)  : Stormy humid and warm - mostly cloudy will cap temps in the upper 70s/low 80s.  Should we see more sun Friday temps may respond accordingly i the mid or upper 80s.
5/31 - 6/4 : Cooler as cold front passes and trough digs into the east.  Possible lows in the 40s inland Sunday night.
6/5 - 6/9 :  Rebound - warmer overall but near normal.
6/10 : Ridge in the east (far out there in guidance land) but hints of ridge building - seen that before and ultimately the ridge did build  400 miles to far north to deliver any summertime heat in the area.  So ridging looks likely, have to watch how it evolves and where  axis sets up and any ULL undercutting the ridge.    

Up to 76 yesterday with full sunshine by a little past 3pm.  Think we're sunnier sooner today and that is closer to noon/1pm today for most

So-Cal June-gloom pattern  - Marine layer burns off by early afternoon to bright sunshine and warm temps.  With any sun Thu - Fri could have been a contender.  Hung up front an issue with such a stagnant airmass and massive ridge nearby.  Beyond the strong cold front passing though (maybe slowly) and subsequent 2 day cooler temps (5/31-6/4)  it could be a more normal pattern with transient height rises followed by transient troughs/ showers and storms with no cool or warmth locking in during the 6/5 - mid June period. Warmer days should yield the first 90s but need to watch how wet we get too.   

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unusual to get a 590 DM ridge overhead in late May without low to mid 90s.

 

Trying to go back and see of Mays with such a persistent onshore flow.  Even 2008 which i am liking this period and how it ended to, was more by way of deep trough into the east .  You are right there isnt any lack of ridging in the east since May 8th. with constant troughs moving into the west coast too.  Just a matter of time before the warmth spreads in from Canada :-) .   Thu/ Fri look steamy with SSW flow ahead of the front.  Clouds will hinder any chance those days of a stray 90 which was looking possible a few days ago.  

Dow to 54 last night.  Low level clouds will be slow to erode over the next 2 - 4 hours..  NE flow continues.  Clouds will muddy up any temps higher than the low 80s Thu and Fri.  Front arrives Fri PM / Sat keeping things a bit cooler than normal 6/1 - 6/4 .  Heights and temps look to rebound 6/5 we'll see how things evolve.

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Down to 51 last night.  0.59 in the bucket.  Cool and a bit breezy NE wind.  Clouds generally moving NE to SW with some breaks over LI and N-NJ so far.  

Areas with sun out in southern NJ in the mid 70s.  Looks possible to clear a bit this afternoon as this batch of rain rotates through  ahead of the onshore flow.  Already clearing to i-195.

Very tropical out there today.  Clouds and rain rotating through with sun out in S-NJ now.

66/65 here.  About 0.37 in the bucket

Up to 76 here remaining partly cloudy for a bit longer.  

Getting past the ULL Fri / Sat, the rest of the memorial day weekend looks much like the past week onshore flow / Calinfornia style weather.

Temps warming Tue/Wed with first shot of 90s Thu-Sat (5/28 - 5/30) in the warmer spots - expecting temps to beat current guidance..  Cold front arrives Sat/Sun next weekend with cooler start to June 5/31 - 6/4 as ridge builds into the  Plains/ GL.  Gotta watch hung / slow frontal passage 5/31 - 6/2.  Way out there there but  6/5  still troughing pushing into the WC, with ridge  orientation needing to improve to get the sustained warmth into the east.  Will be interesting to see how it progresses and if the current dry is ended with an abrupt soaker a few days.  

Cloud deck creeping north into C-NJ with showers into DE/SNJ