SACRUS

Happy 4th of July!  Realizing this is the 21st July 4th spent in the various and legacy weather communities .

72/68 (0.29) from yesterdays storm. Morning clouds clearing out with  cooler but still currently humid NE flow.    Coolest day in a while that isn't cloudy and raining.  4th of July coolest in a while but a beautiful day for America the beautiful in the mid 80s and near 80 long the coast with dry and less humid by the afternoon.  Sunday the flow is coming back around to the NW / W and we warm things back to the upper 80s and low 90s.  

Monday through Friday look to continue to the overall warmer theme with strong heat building by Wed - Fri.  Each day should see widspread 90 degree readings and the first true heatwave in the metro areas/wider region.  Storms should be possible most evenings so the days that stay drier and more sunny should exceed guidance but Wed  - Fri have shot of strong heat for consecutive days.   A more southerly component to the flow will bring the humidity by Wed PM and Thu with Dewpoints in the 70s.  ULL/cutoff a bit more south on the latest guidance but still needs to be watched Wed PM - Sat AM.  Beyond there Euro and GFS building a very strong ridge into the Mid West in the long range.  So week of 7/13 looks to continue the warm July's.

7/3

PHL: 97
ACY: 96
LGA: 94
EWR: 94
New Brnswk: 93
TEB: 93
TTN: 93
BLM: 92
JFK: 91
NYC: 90
ISP: 88

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 7  (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 2 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 7  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 2  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 6 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul: 2 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 6 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 1; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 7 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 2 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 4 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 2  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 4 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 2; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 2 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 2 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 6 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 2 ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 3
ACY: 1
TEB: 2
LGA: 3
TTN:1
EWR: 1
PHL: 2
BLM: 1
JFK:1

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7/3

PHL: 97
ACY: 96
LGA: 94
EWR: 94
New Brnswk: 93
TEB: 93
TTN: 93
BLM: 92
JFK: 91
NYC: 90
ISP: 88

93 here in CNJ

Clearing more now as clouds breakup.  Heating up between 2:30 - 4:00 should push mid 90s maybe higher in some spots. 

Full sun now with clouds over NW NJ.  Should be about an hour to heat up more before next mass of clouds moves in around 1 for an hour or so.

11ish AM Roundup

ACY: 91
PHL: 89
New Brnswk: 89
LGA: 88
TEB: 88
EWR: 87
NYC: 86
JFK: 86
BLM: 85
TTN: 84
ISP: 81

More sun now and up to 85 , make that 86

You can see the onshore pushing in through MA and into RI on loop above.

Hope this loop works

42 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Your satellite loop is showing yesterday. I’m thinking these clouds are going to keep a lid on temps with the backdoor front clouds racing in from the NE as well. 

Thanks - there is some cache issues when you post a link in the thread it defaults 24 hours prior.  Going to be close today and f we get enough clearing, off to the races and some fuel for storms later.  

Next week Mon - Wed look solidly hot with pm storms, need to watch ULL Wed PM - Fri/Sat.  See if its on todays guidance.  ECM more emphasis on it and more north and sticking around the Carlonias/ Mid Atlantic.  Would bring the humidity and keep coastal onshore. Will see .

very hot period for large sections of the country. ECM also builds 600DM ridge into the Mid west way out in the run.

81/65 with mostly cloudy skies.  Some of the clouds are breaking up and burning off a bit and should shoot temps into the 90s.  With enough sun ahead of storms later this afternoon and early evening, it should push temps to or beyond yesterdays maxes.  

Cooler NE flow for the 4th of July and Sun, will produce gorgeous weather both days mid upper 80s, cooler california like beach weather.  Heat returns next week Mon - Fri.  Need to watch cut off setting up over the Carolinas by Wed PM/ Thu otherwise the heat is on and looks to continue beyond into next weekend 7/10-12.

7/2

EWR: 95
LGA: 95
TTN: 94
TEB: 94
PHL: 93
NYC: 92
ACY: 92
New Brnswk: 92
BLM: 91
JFK: 90
ISP: 87

Locked in .  Hot Fri, warm but cooler (splendid) Sat and Sunday.  Enjoy the fourth!  Heat is poised to return on Monday and really sizzle the rest of next week.

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 6  (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 1 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 6  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 1  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 5 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 6 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 1; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 1 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 3 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 1  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 3 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 1; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 1 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 1 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 5 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July:1 ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 3
ACY: 1
TEB: 2
LGA: 3
TTN:1
EWR: 1
PHL: 2
BLM: 1
JFK:1

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7/2

EWR: 95
LGA: 95
TTN: 94
TEB: 94
PHL: 93
NYC: 92
ACY: 92
New Brnswk: 92
BLM: 91
JFK: 90
ISP: 87

1PM Roundup

EWR: 90
New brnswk: 89
TEB: 89
TTN: 88
LGA: 88
NYC: 88
JFK: 88
PHL: 88
BLM: 87
ACY: 87
ISP: 84

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

90 at Newark with a warm northerly flow.

Agreed , sunnier than i thought and also impressive heat around.  tomorrow barring clouds arriving too early should see the hottest of the year so far.

77/67 and mostly sunny.  Surprised we cleared as well as we did, so temps may exceed prior thoughts and be on forecast near or low 90s.  Friday still looks like the hottest day of the season (so far) pending on clouds and any afternoon or early evening storms.

Fourth of July weekend looking down right splendid. Sunny warm and manly dry aside from a stray storm.  Beaches look cooler (70s) by Saturday and Sunday is very californi-like.  By Sunday the heat is building just outside the area, and starting Mon (7/6) to at least Sat (7/11) queue Glenn Frey - The heat is on.  Potential for strong heat (no records expected yet) peak heat looks tue - fri.  DO expect routine pm t storms.  Beyond there in the long range does look like a cold front arrives 7/11 weekend.  Ridge is building into the southwest and expanding east again into the Plains by mid month.  Overall much warmer than normal 7/6 week, warmer than normal 7/13 week and progression should see a hotter 7/20 week.

Happy fourth.

2 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

The last few days have been one of the more interesting setups I've seen for the area, I'll give them that.  Cell to my west is hammering Somerset County and has dropped many nice CTG strikes.

Question for everyone: does anyone remember a day 2-3 years ago, incredibly hot and humid, where at some point in the afternoon the entire region exploded with thunderstorms crawling random directions?

It was a very distinctive event.  At some point in the afternoon, like 2:30 PM, the radar went from clear to cells gushing everywhere.  There was no steering flow.  Cells just appeared everywhere and drifted around, the whole state was covered by red echoes, flash flooding must've been everywhere.  I don't even think it was due to a seabreeze front, they didn't really propagate along a front that I could see.  The atmosphere pretty much rained itself out.

Wish I could remember what day that was and what the setup was, pretty wild.

Do you recall which areas might have been hit the hardest and was it 2018 or 2017?

Locking in now for a mainly dry fourth of July weekend.  Starting hot Friday cooling by Sat afternoon especially along the beached to more Southern California type weather Sat PM and Sunday.

EWR: LGA:
Fri: 93
Sat: 87 cooling by the PM
Sun: 86

NJ shore (Belmar, Lavalette)
Fri: 89
Sat: 82
Sun: 77

Happy 4th.
 

7/1

PHL: 87
TTN: 84
LGA: 84
ISP: 83
New Brnswk: 82 
ACY: 82
EWR: 80
JFK: 80
TEB: 80
NYC: 80
BLM: 78

Rainfall today.  Thought EWR had much more.  Will check in later

EWR: 0.20
New Brnswk: 1.13
NYC: 0.03
JFK: 0.05
BLM: 0.02
TEB: 0.08

75/68 and a trace of rain so far.  Some breaks in the clouds but like yesterday storms and showers should develop more of the same and perhaps a bit more widespread than then.  Warming tomorrow but i m still have a hard time with forecasts of mostly sunny verifying, would go partly or mostly cloudy for Thu and temps low to mid 80s vs upper 80s or neat 90.  Fri the heat is on and pending on any onshore NE/Flow or storms - it should be the hottest day of the season so far.

The rest of fourth of July weekend looks spectacular.  Warm inland mid to upper 80s perhaps a stray 90 and cooler but nice along the beaches.  7/6 - 7/11 heat rebuild and pending on storms and clouds and a low pressure off the south east coast tht could led to some easterly flow Tues, the area should see widespread 90s and first strong heat potential/ heat wave in the period.  Overall looking warm to hot but wetter as storms should occur frequentlyly.  Next Thu (7/9)- Fri (7/10)look to sizzle at this point and Tue could as well if a low off the southeast coast is quicker or more south.

Half way point of the year 

June Departures

LGA: +3.7
NYC: +2.3
ISP: +2.3
BLM: +2.2
EWR: +2.0
TTN": +1.4
JFK: +1.0 

Forecast looks to be locking in.  Friday the hottest day with pm storms (scattered).  4th of July warm but cooler in the evening and especially in the PM along the beaches.  Sun looks beautiful mid - upper 80s.