SACRUS

Jul precip so far

EWR: 3.07
TEB: 3.04
New Brnswck: 1.99
ISP: 1.06
NYC: 0.72
TTN: 0.53
JFK: 0.52
LGA: 0.42
PHL: 0.25
 

77/74 here in Havana (I mean CNJ).  Low clouds burning off with a general S/SE flow.  Very warm airmass >18c (850 temps) should allow 90 degree readings in places that stay sunny away from the coast.  The storm that could be Fay will bring 2 - 4 swath of rains Fri PM into Sat AM PM.  Clear things out Sunday and begin the warmup as ridge builds over the Mid West and Mid Atalntic / Northeast 7/15 - D12 and beyond.  Western Atlantic ridge builds west and may hook with the MW ridge and enhance heights the week of the 7/19.  Perhaps the hottest airmass of the season and in a few years.  Could push triple digits in LGA, EWR, JFK, PHL, TTN.  Does look to include regular storms which should help keep things wetter.  Pushing a hot July and w'll see if we go more 2013 / 2017 like which was followed by a cooler / wetter August or do we continue the hot run like 2016,2012 and keep the wamrth into August,

7/8

PHL: 91
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 90
LGA: 89
EWR: 86
BLM: 87
ACY: 87
TEB: 86
JFK: 84
ISP: 84
NYC: 83

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 11 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 6 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 9  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 10 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul: 6 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 9 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 4; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 9 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 4 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 3 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 3 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 1 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 9 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 5; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 3
ACY: 1
TEB: 3
LGA: 4
TTN:1
EWR: 1
PHL: 2
BLM: 1
JFK:1

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7/8

PHL: 91
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 90
LGA: 89
EWR: 86
BLM: 87
ACY: 87
TEB: 86
JFK: 84
ISP: 84
NYC: 83

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The heat is coming 

Its been around although this seems to be and having staying power.  A

77/73 Florida Feel.   Low clouds burning off but already storms into EPA (mostly NE PA) right now.  Yesterday anyone north i-195 was low / mid 80s with ares just south (TTN) near or at 90.  Warm and wet (Florida-like) pattern continues the next 4 days.  Today steamy but clouds should hinder widespread 90s but also may inhibit a Monday replay.  Thursday is a beach day much like Tuesday perhaps a tinge warmer as 850 temps are near 20C.  By Friday  lat morning / early afternoon, as had been well modeled,  the low should ride the coast from DE/MD into LI and provide a swath of rains to make up the May - Jun deficit 2 - 4 inches of rain (locally more) this is in addition to the 2 - 3 we have had the last 7 days. Storm pulls out by Sat afternoon.

Beyond that warm and less wet as we get to Sunday 7/12 through Tue 7/14 with mainly upper 80s - near 90.  Park needs some time to dry out.  By 7/15 very strong ridge building into the GL, Mid West and Northeast.  Western Atlantic ridge building west to o in the period will enhance heights perhaps ner 600 Dm over the Mid west. Between 7/15 and at least 7/20 could be hottest air- mass of the season.  Perhaps EWR and others may see the return of triple digits in this period.  Hve to watch anything undercutting the ridge but that would likely be towards the southeast.  Tropical acitivity may also become more active.

July precip totals

TEB: 3.02
New Brnswk: 2.12
EWR: 1.92
NYC: 0.73
TTN: 0.53
JFK: 0.51
LGA: 0.41

7/7

TTN: 90
PHL: 88
ACY: 86
EWR: 83
NYC: 82
JFK: 82
TEB: 82
BLM: 82
New Brnswck: 82
LGA: 81
ISP: 75

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

WAR retrograde signal showing up toward day 10. i've posted before that it's the only way we'll get any extended heat this year a la july 2013

There is some guidance with a few runs showing this in the 7/15 - 7/20 period starting D 7 or 8.  Some prior runs showed very strong ridge building into the mid west 600 DM, perhaps thats the linkage needed to kick the weakness and onshore tendences.  Even with that we are running warm (above to much above) that would push it further..  

Steam bath days are here.

Steamy 77/71 off of a warm low of 69 here.  Partly cloudy ENE wind flow should cap temps in the upper 80s (max) if we have enough sun and less active than yesterday (monday) but some pm fun along the coast.   Wed looks to be more stormy land with enough sun like Monday could make a run at 90 and add fuel to storms (further erasing the dryness from May/Jun).  Thursday a more tame day  and good beach time again temps near 90 well see if recent storm rains slows temps beating guidance.

  The Sub tropical ULL (whatever it my be at the time it passes) should ride coastal DE to LI Fri PM to Sat PM bringing more rains. Once we clear the ULL Sat we should less wet and more warm Sat - Tue. 

Looking beyond , by 7/15 looks to start another hot period.  Recent runs building ridge into the Mid West now showing possible linkage with the Western Atlantic ridge in the period. We'll see how it evolves but a very hot airmass over mid section is spreading into the region by mid month.  Can we pull off a century mark reading outside of LGA this year.  This is the period to watch. 

Daily precip 

TEB: 2.89
LDJ: 0.68
New Bnswck: 0.66
EWR: 0.58
NYC: 0.54
BLM: 0.27
PHL: 0.27
JFK: 0.03

7/6

NYC: 96
LGA: 96
TEB: 94
ACY: 94
EWR: 94
TTN: 93
BLM: 92
New Brnswk: 92
PHL: 92
JFK: 91
ISP: 91

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 10 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 5 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 9  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 8 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul: 4 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 9 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 4; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 9 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 4 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 3 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 3 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 1 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 8 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 4; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 3
ACY: 1
TEB: 3
LGA: 3
TTN:1
EWR: 1
PHL: 2
BLM: 1
JFK:1

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7/6

NYC: 96
LGA: 96
TEB: 94
ACY: 94
EWR: 94
TTN: 93
BLM: 92
New Brnswk: 92
PHL: 92
JFK: 91
ISP: 91

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 9 am, the temperature in Central Park was 84 degrees. The 0z GFS MOS showed a high of 86 degrees and the 6z GFS MOS showed a high of 85 degrees. Today will likely see the temperature approach or exceed 90 degrees in Central Park. As has become fairly common over the past few weeks, perhaps on account of the continuing rainfall deficit, the MOS will fall at least several degrees short of the actual high temperature.

Lots of very warm air around even to the north so its been taking  while for the typical backdoor effects to settle in 850 temps near 18C right now SW winds.

85/68 here off of a 96 yesterday.  Warm and wet the next 6 days.  Today more 90s ahead of cooler flow and storms.  Tuesday looks to be cloudy/ more stomry and NE flow should keep 90s south and west of the are.  Wed if enough Sun some more 90s but plenty of storms in the PM.  Thu my be the quieter day with temps near 90 again.  ULL (low) impacting the area Fri PM and into Saturday before clearing out.

Sun 7/12 - 7/14 : not as warm and perhaps not as wet as this period with strong heat building into plins and GL.  ECM and some guidance  has a very strong ridge centered over the Mid West way out in 9 days 7/15.  We'll see if that materializes and could provide the allusive triple digit readings. 

7/5

LGA: 96
EWR: 95
BLM: 95
TTN: 95
New Brnswk: 95
PHL: 95
TEB: 94
NYC: 92
ACY: 90
JFK: 88
ISP: 86

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 9  (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 4 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 8  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 3  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 7 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul: 3 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA:87 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 3; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 8 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 3 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 5 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 3  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 5 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 3; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 2 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 2 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 7 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 3; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 3
ACY: 1
TEB: 3
LGA: 3
TTN:1
EWR: 1
PHL: 2
BLM: 1
JFK:1

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7/5

LGA: 96 8
EWR: 95
BLM: 95
TTN: 95
New Brnswk: 95
PHL: 95
TEB: 94
NYC: 92
ACY: 90
JFK: 88
ISP: 86

On 7/1/2020 at 8:31 PM, SACRUS said:

Locking in now for a mainly dry fourth of July weekend.  Starting hot Friday cooling by Sat afternoon especially along the beached to more Southern California type weather Sat PM and Sunday.

EWR: LGA:
Fri: 93
Sat: 87 cooling by the PM
Sun: 86

NJ shore (Belmar, Lavalette)
Fri: 89
Sat: 82
Sun: 77

 

Happy 4th.
 

 

Going to be too cool for today but Fri/ Sat right on.  Enjoy the rest of the july 4th weekend.

77/70 as low clouds burn off with wind change.  Next two days should see temps exceed guidance where its mostly sunny.  Temps low to mid 90s perhaps hotter as 18-20C 850 temps are nearby today and monday.  Tuesday we will see how far NE flow keeps the cool, but another day that could get use our heatwave before the next chance Wed - Fri. Storms possible each day Mon - Fri.   

ULL (sub tropical low) again further north on guidance, ECM had that feature since earlier last week  - lost it,  then  it over the southeast  and is back now. north since 00z Sat runs.   Could be a soaker Fri evening if it comes north and id bet on it ending a dry pattern with a soaker.  Beyond there as we clear this feature plenty of heat rebuilding into Lakes, Mid West by 7/13.  Believe that allusive triple digit may have a chance between mid July and early August with one of these surges.  Warm and wet now evolving looks like June might have been an anomaly.  

7/4

PHL: 92
TEB: 89
TTN: 89
LGA: 88
NYC: 87
EWR: 87
New Brnswk: 87
JFL: 85
ACY: 83
ISP: 83
BLM: 83

Thu / Fri much the same on the Euro here 850s near >18 - 20C.  Very warm airmass nearby as Bluewave noted any W or Nrly component to the flow will bring the heat.  These are the best free maps i could post 0z

Saturday that low off the coast of the Carlonias pushing Easterly winds - gotta watch that ULL as previous runs that off the coast of DE by sat.

Queue the Beatles here comes the sun and up to 81/69 here. Quite humid.

Happy 4th of July!  Realizing this is the 21st July 4th spent in the various and legacy weather communities .

72/68 (0.29) from yesterdays storm. Morning clouds clearing out with  cooler but still currently humid NE flow.    Coolest day in a while that isn't cloudy and raining.  4th of July coolest in a while but a beautiful day for America the beautiful in the mid 80s and near 80 long the coast with dry and less humid by the afternoon.  Sunday the flow is coming back around to the NW / W and we warm things back to the upper 80s and low 90s.  

Monday through Friday look to continue to the overall warmer theme with strong heat building by Wed - Fri.  Each day should see widspread 90 degree readings and the first true heatwave in the metro areas/wider region.  Storms should be possible most evenings so the days that stay drier and more sunny should exceed guidance but Wed  - Fri have shot of strong heat for consecutive days.   A more southerly component to the flow will bring the humidity by Wed PM and Thu with Dewpoints in the 70s.  ULL/cutoff a bit more south on the latest guidance but still needs to be watched Wed PM - Sat AM.  Beyond there Euro and GFS building a very strong ridge into the Mid West in the long range.  So week of 7/13 looks to continue the warm July's.

7/3

PHL: 97
ACY: 96
LGA: 94
EWR: 94
New Brnswk: 93
TEB: 93
TTN: 93
BLM: 92
JFK: 91
NYC: 90
ISP: 88

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 7  (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 2 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 7  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 2  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 6 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul: 2 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 6 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 1; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 7 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 2 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 4 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 2  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 4 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 2; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 2 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 2 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 6 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 2 ; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 3
ACY: 1
TEB: 2
LGA: 3
TTN:1
EWR: 1
PHL: 2
BLM: 1
JFK:1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

7/3

PHL: 97
ACY: 96
LGA: 94
EWR: 94
New Brnswk: 93
TEB: 93
TTN: 93
BLM: 92
JFK: 91
NYC: 90
ISP: 88