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SACRUS

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    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Tropics this morning. 83/76 here feels like Jamaica.  The heat is on and temps will challenge this past Mon-Tue as guidance continues to forecast a push of 850MB temps 22-23C Monday PM through Tue PM.  That should translate into many 97- 101s under mostly sunny conditions.  Clouds and recent heavy rains the only factors that may halt any triple digits in the hot spots NE/C-NJ / LGA metro.  Front triggers some widespread storms - looking at timing later TUesday.  Well have to see what debirs clouds and storms linger into Wed which may cause a break in the 90s, otherwise Wed should get into the 90s.  Thu (7/30) -  Sat(Aug 1) now looking much warmer on guidance and should see temps at or above 90 for much the area.  

    Warm and wet.

     

    Beyond there the tropics will need to be watched.  As WAR is nearby and retrograding west in the next week to 10 days.  This should keep heights higher along the east coast with nearby trough into the GL/OV is the ridge moves back towards the Rockies for a period.  We'll see if it trends less cool but guidance has D8- 10 cooldown to near or below normal.  8/2-4/ .  By the second week of August the ridge is on the move east again into the Plains and Midwest and strong heat looks to again eject east in that time-frame.  Timing the WAR expansion could again trigger a strong heat spike in that 8/6 - 8/14 time-frame.

    • Like 1

    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 hour ago, binbisso said:

    Monthly departures

    Cp +2.8

    Ewr +2.6

    Jfk +3

    Lga +4.7

    Is there any way we could remove LGA as a reporting station or can they move their sensor to a better spot to give a better representation of Queens it's pretty ridiculous that they're about two degrees above normal from any of the local reporting stations

    Adding a few

    ISP: +3.2
    TEB: +3.1
    BLM: +3.7
    TTN: +3.4
    PHL: +3.3

    90 Degree Days

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

     

    2020:

    PHL: 21 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 16 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
    EWR: 17  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 12  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    TTN: 16 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4;  Jul: 12 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    LGA: 19 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 14  ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
    ACY: 16 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 11 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
    TEB: 13 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 11  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
    NYC: 11 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 9; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    JFK: 7 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 7 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    ISP: 3 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
    New Bnswk: 15 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 11 Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)
    BLM:   19

    89 degree days;

    New Brnswick: 8
    ACY: 3
    TEB: 5
    LGA: 5
    TTN: 3
    EWR: 2
    PHL: 4
    BLM: 4
    JFK:2
    NYC: 1

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    7/25

    LGA: 92
    TEB: 90
    EWR: 90
    New Brnswck: 89
    PHL: 89
    BLM: 89
    TTN: 88
    NYC: 88
    ISP: 86
    ACY: 86
    JFK: 85

    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

    despite the trough next week the euro keeps us in the low 90's most days

    Guidance had certainly moderated in that Jul 30 - Aug 1/2nd period from showing below normal temps to near normal now.  Looks to get quite humid early Aug. Only below normal days will likely be attributed to conditions like yesterday cloudy/showers most of the day for the next 10 days / 2 weeks.

    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

    The early next week heat will probably be the strongest heat of the season.

    I don't see it getting hotter than that in August. August could be more warm/humid than near record hot. Lots of tropical activity lurking too.

    This coming week's heat likely the hottest along with this past week but I've learned never to say it cant happen.  In these warm / hot years all it takes sometimes is a ridge in the right spot.

    Agree August theme looks warm and wet (humid) and may see Tropical tracking most of the month.  That ridge building back from the Atlantic and the Rockies ridge returning eat towards the Midwest and Ohio valley seems to be the tendency so id watch August 6 - 14 more the next sustained heat spike.  

    • Like 1

    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    80/72 S/SW wind.  Low clouds burning off and today starts the next surge of heat which briefly ended Friday.  Onshore component to winds may keep coastal areas from 90 today.  Sun - Wed widespread strong heat peaking Mon -PM  Tue with 850MB temps pegged at 22C which with enough sun should translate  to the upper 90s with EWR/LGA a shot at 100.  850s actually look highest on Tue but storms timing could limit max heating and Mon is the better bet for the hotter day right now.  Recent deluge may prohibit 100 but dont think we are done with strong heat so perhaps not the last chance or hottest air of the season yet.  By Tue and Wed heights are dropping ahead of a front so numerous storms are likely later Tue and perhaps Wed morning which would make Wednesday (7/29) the tossup day for 90s.  

    Beyond there drier cooler near normal  Thu (7/30) and Fri (7/31).    August looking to begin warm / humid and likely wetter than normal.  US ridge shifts west to the Rockies to open the month with W. Atl Ridge shifting south with some weaknesses  into the Mid West.  W.AR does looks to migrate west with the Rockies ridge pushing into the plains again by the second week of August.  Overall warm with no prolonged / strong heat the first week, which should feature chances of 90s.  Hotter, stronger more sustained period looks possible by Aug 6th.  TIme will tell as tropics ramp up and WAR steering storms towards the US..

    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    77/76.  Nearly 2 1/2 inches of rain overnight with persistent and prolonged thunderstorms.  Like yesterday clouds should dissipate in the afternoon but unlike yesterday temps should stay below 90 with additional showers and storms through the PM. Sat we dry things out and warm it back up.  Inland areas not impacted by coastal seabreeze will close in and resume the next stretch of 90s.  Sun - Tue strong heat peaking MOn and Tue with 850MB temps near 22C which should translate to upper 90s and some stray triple digits.  Have to watch storms Tue and stronger storms on Wed as front moves through and should bring temps back towards normal to close out July Thu (7/30) - Fri (7/31)

    Warm and wet opening to August.  Western Atl Ridge nearby and retrogrades west into the Southeast at times and Rockies/Plains ridge ejecting heat at times that migrate east into the MW/GL and east.  Humid, warm and at times hot with plenty of storms chances.  Likely see 1 to 2 day surges of heat with plenty of storms and need to watch tropical activity as well.  Can see a similar pattern evolve  to what we have seen the last 10 days towards the second week of August with more ridging into the MW/OV and WAR nearby potentially hooking really raising heights.

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