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SACRUS

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    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    78/65 felling much less tropical today.  Clear skies should get most stations outside the park to 90 today.  Will post monthly precip totals next,. Warm and wet continues.  ULL brings more E/ NE winds Wed  - Thu before the heat is on. Lots of 88/ 89 days perhaps a 90 or two in the warmer spots Tue - Thu.

      Ridge centered a bit south for the extreme potential record breaking heat till at least 7/18,  perhaps during the hottest time of the year it moves over the area..  Beyond storms tomorrow (Mon 7/13) the week looks to dry things out.  Heights are high most of the next two weeks with a very hot airmass over much of the east.  Flow will determine extent of maxes.  ECM pushes 850 temps >16 by Fri PM and near 20c next weekend so what looked like strong heat Thu is now being forecast  7/18 - 7/21 (next weekend)  as cutoff  over New England moves through by 7/18.  Overall as the heat comes and we are away from the center of the axis which meanders towards the plains then GL, storms should continue to be consistent so no true drying out. 

    • Like 2

    Tropical Storm Fay

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

    Looks like landfall is coming near Atlantic City or Brigantine island. 

    Cannot remember the last time a tropical cyclone made its first landfall in NJ.

     

    Close to it, maybe eye crosses over the Beach Haven / LBI areas in the next hour.

    July 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    77/73 as clouds have moved in from the SE to NW.  Rain to about Barnegat Lt House and moving north quickly.  Widespread 2 - 4 inches of rain from the cut off ULL that became Fay.  Well modeled on the Euro from last week.  Once we clear fay humid and steamy weekend and if enough sun more 90s and fuel for some storms sat and sun.  Mon - Tue we clear out the trough but still in a very warm airmass.  By 7/15 a very strong ridge will anchor into the Mid West and push heights and heat into the northeast. First push of heat peaks with upper 90s and some century mark r Thu - Sat  (7/16 - 7/18) ahead of a front by next Sun  (7/19).  Ridge looks to rebuild ad Western Atlantic Ridge builds west again in the 7/20 - 7/24 (way out there) period.  ECM and GFS have 850 temps >16 through 7/20, before brief cool down to 12c - 14c air, followed by high heat 7/21 and beyond the long range forecast.   Believe EWR, LGA, PHL, JFK will approach and perhaps exceed 100 a few times in the overall period, recent rains may hinder the park and other areas.  Flow looks solidly W / SW but still need to watch fairly consistent storms.  Night time lows could rack up some upper 70s and 80 degree minimums.  Have to see if we evolve for like 2013 / 2017 where heat fizzled by the second week of August or we follow more 2016/ 2012 where August continues hot.

     

     

     

     

    • Like 1

    90 Degree Days

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

     

    2020:

    PHL: 12 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 7 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
    EWR: 9  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    TTN: 11 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4; Jul: 7 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    LGA: 10 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 5; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
    ACY: 9 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 4 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
    TEB: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
    NYC: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    JFK: 3 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 3 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
    ISP: 1 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 1 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
    New Bnswk: 9 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 5; Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)

    89 degree days;

    New Brnswick: 4
    ACY: 1
    TEB: 4
    LGA: 4
    TTN:1
    EWR: 1
    PHL: 2
    BLM: 1
    JFK:1
    NYC: 1

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

     

     

    7/9

    PHL: 94
    LGA: 91
    TTN: 91
    TEB: 89
    New Brnswck: 89
    NYC: 89
    EWR: 88
    ACY: 87
    BLM: 86
    JFK: 86
    ISP: 85

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