SACRUS

Clouds in CPA teetering into NW-NJ but some are burning off and dissipating.  Does look like there will be more clouds reaching the area by noon.

47 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

even if we don't get a TC next week looks wet with the WAR battling a trough

That position of the WAR will be key on focus of the consistent almost daily storms or deluges or if/when it pushes far enough west would force rain into PA/NYS/OV.  The 12z guidance had the WAR further NW and the 00z went east and now showing much more rain next week 8/2 - 8/7.

Jul 90 (+) degree days; Monthly departure / monthly avg
 

EWR:
2020 (so far): 14 / 80.5 / +3.3
2019: 14 / 80.6 / + 3.3
2018: 9 / 78.2 / +0.9
2017: 9  / 77.3 / +0
2016: 16 / 79.9 / +2.6
2015: 13 / 79.1 / +1.7
2014: 8 / 77 / -.3
2013: 15 / 80.9 / +3.6
2012: 16 / 80.8 / +3.5
2011: 22  / 82.7 / +5.4
2010: 21 / 82.3 / +5.0

LGA:

2020 (so far): 17 / 82.5 / +5
2019: 14 / 81.5 / +4.0
2018: 10 / 79.8 / +2.3
2017: 8 / 78.1 / +0.6
2016: 15 / 81.1 / +3.6
2015: 6 / 79.2 / +1.7
2014: 3 / 77.1 / -0.5
2013: 15 / 81.2 / +3.7
2012: 13 / 80.4 / +2.9
2011: 13 /  80.4 / +2.9
2010: 18  / 82.8 / + 5.3

10 AM  - beach days

ISP: 90
LGA: 89
ACY: 89
EWR: 88
BLM: 88
JFK: 88
TTN: 87
TEB: 87
PHL: 87
New Brnswck: 87
NYC: 85

87/71. Off a low of 75 here.  Some clouds about 90 mins but are dissipating as the head east.  Enough launching pad and storms holding off till later will continue the 90s streak with more mid 90s today where its clear.  Wed and Thu again looks to see low/mid 90s with 850 temps >16c - 19C.  Thu.  At this time in  most spots Fri and Sat look (like last week) to break the streak although in the warmer spots we could see a few 90s.  ECM continues to show a quick surge of strong heat as the Western Atlantic Ridge expands west on Sunday (8/2 - 8/3) Monday.  Humid and storms likely those days to watch timing.

Beyond there 8/3 - 8/9:  Warm and humid with plenty of storm chances withstrpng Rockies Ridge /  trough into the MW/GL and WAR nearby. Pending on strength and position of the W. AR and the Rockies ridge begins to migrate east into the Plains and OV may be closer to 8/7-8 before more sustained heat arrives.  Before that sprinkled upper 80s low 90s with plenty of humidity.  If we can get on the N/NW flow perhaps a day or two near or below normal.  Warm and wet theme by way of heavy rains not conistent rains. 

Midnight at the oasis.  850MB temp surge may have happened a bit too late for the peak heat as 850s are near 21c now.

LGA: 89
EWR: 86
NYC: 86
TEB: 85
PHL: 84
New Brnswck: 82
JFK: 82
ISP: 82

2016 warm water article, that also references 2011

https://www.nj.com/weather/2016/08/nj_ocean_temperature_heats_up_to_record_level.html

https://pressofatlanticcity.com/news/why-the-water-off-the-jersey-shore-is-the-warmest-its-ever-been/article_489d6142-5fbb-11e6-9b89-f7d4137d245a.html

Storms and bank of clouds moving into W-PA some scattered storms jumping ahead of the line into C/E PA.  Timing of this line would be early Tue.  Perhaps clouds and storms may muddy up 90s tomorrow.  Will see if the storms hold.

7/27

LGA: 97
EWR: 96
ISP: 95
TEB: 95
BLM: 95
PHL: 95
ACY: 94
TTN: 94
JFK: 94
NYC: 93
New Brnswck: 93

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 23 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 18 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 19  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 14  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 18 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4;  Jul: 14 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 21 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 16  ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 18 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 13 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 15 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 13  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 13 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 11; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 9 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 9 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 5 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 5 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 17 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 13 Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)
BLM:   20

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 8
ACY: 3
TEB: 5
LGA: 5
TTN: 3
EWR: 2
PHL: 4
BLM: 4
JFK:2
NYC: 1

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7/27

LGA: 97
EWR: 96
ISP: 95
TEB: 95
BLM: 95
PHL: 95
ACY: 94
TTN: 94
JFK: 94
NYC: 93
New Brnswck: 93

Cant post the satellite loop but still a counter clockwise rotation to clouds with high clouds coming out of the NW.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

Noon Roundup:

TEB: 92
LGA: 92
JFK: 92
EWR: 91
TTN: 91
New Brnswck: 91
ACY: 90
PHL: 90
NYC: 89
BLM: 87

85/68 at 9:30.  NE to SW almost circular rotation to the clouds but overall winds out of the SW/WSW.  Hottest day of the year (so far) look on tap today. 850s are peaking this pm and evening to near 21 - 22C.  Lots of 95(+) and possible 100 near LGA / EWR metro locations.  Looks hot and humid Tue but storms may e present by the early afternoon or later PM.  With enough sun some places will exceed the 95(+) range especially with a high launch pad.  May see some lows at record highest minimums for dailys or  greater.  Thu and Fri now look to be in the low 90s, ECM spikes 850s Thu near >18C.  Weekend looks closer to noraml may sneak in some 90 / low 90s in the hot spots NE-NJ/LGA etc.

Beyond there.  warm (to hot at times) and wet pattern as WAR keeps east cast above normal with higher heights but US ridge back west to the Rockies creating trough into the Midwest and weakness and fronts that could be close by or get hung up.  ECM does have another day or two of strong heat on Aug 2 - Aug 4th ahead of front.  Need to watch the Tropics as WAR will be pulsing west at time but any storm could find weakness and push towards the EC otherwise FL/GOM threat.

10PM

LGA: 91
EWR: 86
NYC: 85
TEB: 83
JFK: 82

Rockies Ridge, Trough into the MW/GL and WAR close by / expanding west at times keeping EC warm to hot.  Warm/wet opening to August.  Tropics could add to recent excess rainfalls.

JULY

90(+) days last 10 years.  2020 will be at or in top 3 of last 10 years of 90 degree days.

EWR:
2020 (so far): 13
2019: 14
2018: 9
2017: 9 
2016: 16
2015: 13
2014: 8
2013: 15
2012: 16
2011: 22 
2010: 21

LGA:

2020 (so far): 15
2019: 14
2018: 10
2017: 8
2016: 15
2015: 6
2014: 3
2013: 15
2012: 13
2011: 13
2010: 18

For reference record highs.  Most look safe but with enough sunshine could do it... JFK, LGA, EWR

7/27

JFK: 97   (1963)
ISP: 94    (1999)
LGA: 100 (2005)
NYC: 98 (1963)
EWR: 101 (2005)
New Brnswck: 99 (1999)
TTN: 98 (1940)
PHL: 100 (194)   

7/26

LGA: 95
EWR: 94
PHL: 94
JFK: 93
TEB: 93
ACY: 93
TTN: 93
BLM: 93
NYC: 92
New Brnswck: 92
ISP: 90

On 4/26/2011 at 9:17 AM, SACRUS said:

 

2020:

PHL: 22 (April: 0; May: 0  ; June: 5 ; Jul: 17 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  ; Oct:  )
EWR: 18  (April: 0; May:  0; June: 5 ; Jul: 13  ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
TTN: 17 (April:0 ; May:  0; June: 4;  Jul: 13 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
LGA: 20 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 5 ; Jul: 15  ; Aug: ; Sep:  ; Oct: )
ACY: 17 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 5  ; Jul: 12 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct: )
TEB: 14 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 12  ; Aug: ; Sep: ;  Oct: )
NYC: 12 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 10; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
JFK: 8 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: ; Jul: 8 ; Aug:  ; Sep: ; Oct:  )
ISP: 4 (April: 0; May:0 ; June:  ; Jul: 4 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 16 (April:0 , May: , June: 4, July: 12 Aug:  ;Sep: ; Oct :)
BLM:   19

89 degree days;

New Brnswick: 8
ACY: 3
TEB: 5
LGA: 5
TTN: 3
EWR: 2
PHL: 4
BLM: 4
JFK:2
NYC: 1

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7/26 Clean Sweep for all locations and sites.

LGA: 95
EWR: 94
PHL: 94
JFK: 93
TEB: 93
ACY: 93
TTN: 93
BLM: 93
NYC: 92
New Brnswck: 92
ISP: 90

Just now, Rtd208 said:

Current temp up to 94 here.

Almost completely clear. 850s near 16-17C now.  Add 3-5 more tomorrow 19-22C and we got a real shot at triple digits with W'rly flow and full sunshine (if it stays this clear).

Quick downpour in rhe LBI/ACY vicinity.

3PM Roundup

LGA: 95/59
EWR: 93/62
PHL: 93/65
New Brnswck: 92/66
BLM: 92/74
TEB: 92/65
ACY: 91/73
NYC: 91/63
TTN: 91/64
JFK: 90/73
ISP: 88/75

Had about 35 mins of clouds between 1:15 and 1:45 here in CNJ with light shower. Sun out and 93 now but dewpoint from from 76 to 68 now and likely dropping.  Could beat hottest high here so far (97).

2PM Roundup

LGA: 95/59
EWR: 93/63
New Brnswck: 92/68
ACY: 92/74
TTN: 92/67
TEB: 92/64
PHL: 92/66
BLM: 91/77
NYC: 91/63
ISP: 89/70
JFK: 88/755

Drier/lower dewpoint working south the last hour