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SACRUS

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Posts posted by SACRUS

  1. Made it to 79 yesterday a nice change from the week prior with snow showers and low 40s. 

    Another beauty out there today. Clouds holding off west of the region wit onshore flow building. Currently 61 with a NNE wind now. 

     

    Still wouldnt completely  write off all meaningful rain yet this week but model trends are dryer as TS Arthur  has less impacts Mon/Tue.  Cut off is pushed way south and west towards TN/VA area through Thu before lifting back out Fri and Sat.  Think the warmup is delayed not denied as we get to Memorial Day and the following week for first shot at 90s.  We'll see how it trends.  I think a 2008 style switch to a very hot period is still in the cards.

  2.  

    Probably a compromise between the now heavy QPF GFS and Euro which is now just west  of the area with the heavy rains.  Long duration cut off ULL Mon - Fri/Sat next week.  Still much uncertainty of timing and positions but likely see 3 or 4 of the 5 days mainly cloudy with 1 or 2 days very wet and a sneaky partly cloudy nice day.  Beyond there as we move into Memorial Day weekend we should see the ridge rebuild as the ULL moves out with warming temps and our first shot at some heat/ 90s into the Memorial day holiday and subsequent week 5/25.

     

    68 degrees and clearing on our way to a third very nice day.

     

  3. 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

     

    Looks like my thoughts on the models going drier for next week may wind up be wrong. The overnight Euro was pretty wet and like you mentioned we will have to see how a PRE sets up for early next week.

    It'll be interesting to track the ULL next week with the TS off the coast.  Mid Atlantic is a good bet for the heaviest but we'e not far off.  Wouldnt surprise me to sneak in a nice day (maybe Wed).  Looks like the ridging finally establishes itself on/around 5/23 in time for a warm Memorial Day as it looks now.

  4.  

    Should get the rest of the spotty rain to pass through before noon and clear things up for the warmest day of the year so far for many along with the first 80s for some places who missed it on My 3rd.

     

    5/17 - 5/22 very unsettled with cutoff meandering along in the east.  Perhaps sneaking in a nice day.  Summer looks to arrive in time for Memorial day weekend with perhaps some consecutive warm to hot days and the seasons first 90s.

     

    vis_nj_anim.gif

     

  5. Dont think we are too far from our first 90s of the season / near memorial day weekend.

     

    2020 projections

    Hotter / wetter version of 2008.  Bookend hottest temps of summer fist half of June and early/mid August, Jul longest stretch of heat.. Possible century mark heat in Aug.  Thinking near normal to wetter overall. If things go to one way would argue more chance of warmth underscoring temps

    90 degree (+) days 

    PHL:  30 - 33
    EWR: 31 - 34
    NYC: 17 - 20
    LGA: 27 - 30
    New Bnswk: 26 - 29

     

     

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  6. Lows of 31 and 30 Fri night/Sat night (Sun am).  Currently mostly sunny and 51 here.  It  does look like a good area of clouds pushing in from PA, hope we can clear that up a it  as it  moves through.

    May 14th tipping point to a more normal / warmer pattern.  Will need to see how stormy it gets Thu - Sun.  Sun out should yield second or first 80s for most.  Still looks potentially cut-off-ish towards early the following week 5/19.  Does look more active and with numerous troughs goig into the west coast.  So dont see a prolonged cool down or warmup staying dry...  More normal overall.

     

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  7. 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

    Just give me temps in the 70's for now, we can turn on the oven Memorial Day weekend.

    Last weekend's oasis of warmth seemed so long ago.  Agreed on the 70s but Ill take the upper 50s/low 60s  with sun tomorrow and enjoy it :-).  I guess i brought the cooler weather when returning from a winter on the wc easter weekend.  

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  8. 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

    Models could be too quick to break down the pattern but as of now there's hints of warmer weather near or just after mid May. 

    A lot of morning cloud debris could make 80F out of reach, will be close. 

    80 is toast.  Mostly cloudy through noon and much of the afternoon.  Still a nice day overall.  The cool period looking dry but i woudlnt bet on it.  Id expect things becoming wetter as we go through the next 10 days.

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  9. On 4/26/2020 at 10:23 AM, SACRUS said:

     

    A week away but its currently looking that with enough sunshine next Sun (5/3) and/or Mon (5/4) could see the warmest temps of the season before a return to cooler weather into the 5th.

    Not betting on it but models hinting brief warm up as transient ridging moves through ahead of the next trough.

    Overall it does look like a slower transition away from the sustained troughing/cooler weather we've had since around Easter.  Somewhat reminiscent of 2008 (so far).

    Still think (Sunday 5/3) could yield the warmest temps of the spring so far which isnt much a feat.  Beyond there by 5/5 back to the cool/wet.  Perhaps as we get into the 5/13 range things may shift a bit.  2008 migrated into a very hot first week of June.

  10.  

    A week away but its currently looking that with enough sunshine next Sun (5/3) and/or Mon (5/4) could see the warmest temps of the season before a return to cooler weather into the 5th.

    Not betting on it but models hinting brief warm up as transient ridging moves through ahead of the next trough.

    Overall it does look like a slower transition away from the sustained troughing/cooler weather we've had since around Easter.  Somewhat reminiscent of 2008 (so far).

  11. 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

    read above.   -NAO, -EPO pattern for awhile.       Meanwhile today is shaping up to be nice-sunny and low 60's here

    Last nights runs showed more of the same overall trough into the east with a day or two of transient warmth towards or slightly above normal the next 10 days to 2 weeks..  Still thinking  into the first week of May we return back to a warmer pattern, more a bit of sustained umph...

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  12. Brief reprieve from the recent cool Sun (upper 60s) and Tues (near 70) before more cool unsettled weather Wed - Fri. .  Troughing looks to linger into late April. Think it may take till on/around May 4 to see more sustained warmth into the area.

     

    vis_nj_anim.gif

     

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