CaryWx

6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Well this is a shocker...

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/nam.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=Snow_Depth&initcycle=determine&initfhour=078&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=669&initrange=34.156551683777:277.835199999948:32.607949264087:280.751514074022&initcx1=NaN&initcy1=NaN&initcx2=NaN&initcy2=NaN&initcross=False&initsound=True&initsoundx=456&initsoundy=353&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=084&initlint=6&initol1=Snow_Depth&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On

I make it -1.2c  Good no? 

Not sure I see anything to warrant a WSW for next layer of counties in the eastern piedmont.  Just Advisory criteria

Would anyone hazard to guess the euro lines up with the NAM?  Double EE rule and all.

Watching WRAL weather video I'm guessing the NWS is holding off on Vance/Franklin/Wake/Lee and perhaps Moore counties on deciding if to issue a WSW or just SA later today.  Probably after all the 12z model suites are in.

5 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Lancaster County, SC is now under a Winter Storm Watch. It was previously under an advisory. Makes me feel slightly better about there being less of a warm nose for the CLT metro. 

Yeah,  Not in that neck of the woods but find it strange for that one county sort out by itself to have a Watch.  Almost have to believe the adjacent counties to its west would also come under WSW

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Maybe, that would match up with the NWS's worse case situation; which it looks like the models are leaning towards (at this time). 

But, the last few storms we've tracked have been a little warmer then advertised at go live. Maybe this is different, I would like to see the models come in a little colder; whereas the snow line stays down in Harnett and Johnson county the whole event. 

That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake.  Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid.

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Based on past systems, I'm giving preference to short/medium range models.  I think the NAM has a much better grasp, like it did with January 2017.

With all due respect (and I lived and died on that 1/2017 storm) we still aren't in the NAM wheelhouse yet.  That said this one does have that look.

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

If the NAM can saturate the column by 6Z, it will make a world of difference in the snow totals. It took a good step in that direction tonight. 

Yes that is the positive take away but we need a couple more trending runs though.

.70 is no bueno for Wake on zr

1 minute ago, WidreMann said:

Big blow up of snow accums just north of the Triangle. We're over to ZR by late morning.

It's a better look though.  Was afraid the trend was going to be worse

Some serious gulf convection robbing the system on that 57hr look 

8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

SREF snow mean for CLT remained at about 4.5”

Queen, Could you tell me the SREF snow mean for RDU

Looking good grit.  I just picked up my firewood today.  

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

It would also be nice if people gave proof as to why the models are wrong, other factors they can actually show, instead of just saying climatology and it's rare to get a big winter storm here. 

One of the posts I saw pointed to the fact that the global models may not be capturing the mid-level temps very well

Definitely seem to be trends taking snow out of the forecast for Charlotte to RDU.  We were borderline anyways.  Could tack back in with future (and other) model runs but we are seeing this over a couple 12z models now.  Canadian coming in stronger though towards NC overall so there is that I guess.

Thanks for the insight Matthew.

One thing the NAM seems to be pointing too on a more global scale for this storm is that the precip will go further north.  Whether correct to not I don't know

Pretty sure the reason we don't rely on NAM beyond ~48hrs is the precip projections are low score.  Not sure on the other aspects it can sniff out though.  Like dew points,etc. 

Just now, Pilotwx said:

Thunderstorms on the Gulf coast , probably robing moisture as well as warming the Atmosphere

Oh, Almost forgot about that potential feature in storms like this.  Definitely have an effect up this way wrt available moisture

beenskip, weaker HP and further west

Thanks guys

2 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said:

Maybe a touch less QPF but I'm only seeing the maps through Monday at 12z....still have the upper low to go by on Monday

 

Do you still that track mid-MS to off ILM?

How is the sounding for RDU on the 18z?  Should I ask?

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

850mb low track is central MS to Wilmington on the Euro

any 850 track south and east of the triangle cannot be all bad.

NAM and Euro lining up is great for mby but I also realize this is premature.  Need that alignment to hold for about 36hrs longer than I'll become more of a believer.