CaryWx

Ji-casting again I see

Grabbed this from one of Bob's posts on the MA forum.  Is this like polar displacement or something?  Mercy!

50 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1084894438357377026

 

Massive cold on the Euro

This is somewhat transient though.  By mid week more seasonable/slightly-below temps return I believe.  More longer duration killer cold comes in the last week of the month if I'm reading things correctly.

14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

FWIW- 12z EPS has sped up the flip to a -NAO by about a day... It's less than 15 days away. Starts building d10 and goes from there. 

Thanks Bob.  Yes our local TV mets were mentioning earlier the GFS and Euro see the same thing but as you had mentioned earlier somewhere it was just timing that was off.  Euro was lagging I believe.  This creates more certainty when both of the top LR models see the same thing but just maybe not exactly the same time alignment.  

My guess is until we get closer (or through next weekend) the operational models will continue to bounce around.  They do not yet have a good handle on the new 'colder' pattern that is supposed to emerge beginning sometime next week. 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

This sure looks like the real deal. All global ens and longer range weeklies/seasonal guidance shows the exact same thing... a big red ball over Greenland with a strong signal for a west based neg nao and neg ao. Previous blocking episodes like the one being advertised last between 30-60 days with the average around 45. It will wax and wane over longer timescales but if it forms, expect it to stay. This isn't looking like a phantom digital block. If things change i'll post about it. 

Keep an eye on the western atlantic ridge. That's the feature that throws a wrench in next weekend but it's all part of a large scale process. The atlantic ridge should move into the nao region after next weekend.

Thanks for dropping in

Glad things are finally turning for you guys in the MA forum as well Bob.    Checking in there from time to time over the last few weeks was beginning to wonder if someone was going to need to medicate that thread. The MA was getting the DT's from snow drought. 

Cripes! We're down to 32 here in Cary

WRAL's look for next Saturday night.  Pretty sure this is the cold pressing down with copious amounts of precip.

btw nothing in Cary yet

1 minute ago, Lettucesnow said:

Decent moderate sleet moved through in Northwest Greensboro. Lightened up a bit now, but still coming down. Probably won't last too much longer, but will hopefully bring the temperatures down a bit 

    "Lettuce  now" for 400 Alex!   LOL

58 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

1052 is much more likely in the new pattern.

I don't know Widre.  That's pretty hefty and would be interesting to see if it validates plus how long it stays at 1052 and not flex down in pressure rather quickly 

I really never worry too much about suppression of any duration.  WAA and cold chasing moisture scenarios do us in more often then not.

Still might get a little snow in RDU area on way out though

Taken from the MA forum, but I like the look for NC

32 minutes ago, eyewall said:

We get one good one a year maybe. We already had that. It is extremely tough to reel in a second system in NC in any given year outside the mountains.

Statistically you are correct.  However a significant snowfall in early December is anomalous.  If the "one good one" happens in Jan, Feb or even early March I would agree. 

The euro move (twice now) to warmer was a big signal imho since it was in our camp earlier and better than the gfs.   Doubt it is going to track back south but you never know.

that's some fugly ice

4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Canadian is lights out

as in game over? 

4 minutes ago, ajr said:

18z GEFS warmed up a little and seems to like the Miller B/slider pattern with transition north of Savannah

Off Savannah is not too bad

7 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The GFS, which has been historically awful the past seven days, is changing peoples minds? Are y’all drunk? I understand pessimism but this is a bit much. 

Not me.  The 12z euro move and supporting ensembles moved more away (relative to mby) from the previous 0z solution

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

So the 18z GFS and FV3 both are just to far north... mainly ice or rain... need it to come back south...

Problem is the 12z euro headed their way more which was not good.

GFS not helping us.  Losing what we had of this thing.

ugh--Snow Drink straight please!--no ice

Can anyone post euro maps for NC/SC?

Just now, FallsLake said:

The GFS(s) are slightly warmer but still have low dewpoints; whereas at hour 84 RDU has a dewpoint of 11 on the NAM and 13 on the GFS.  

When is the expected onset of precip in our area?  Seen DPs shoot up rapidly in situations like this as well.