CaryWx

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Here's this aftn's week 3-4 forecast from NOAA (for Jan 5-19).  Their forecast discussion is good and touches on many things that have been part of the long range discussion in here over the past few weeks - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

 

"While we do not issue explicit forecasts of winter weather potential at this lead, it would seem prudent to note that the forecast circulation pattern would favor an enhanced chance of winter storm events east of the Appalachians, including the major population centers of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, especially later in the period."---That's about as good as you will get from them to signal snow chances even for our (NC/SC) respected areas

59 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Absolutely Grit! It was about the best run of the season probably.  I'm still very hesitant on biting on this pattern change currently.  Let's get into the first of January and see how the models look then.

I suspect we'll know before then.  Closer to NYE

2 hours ago, mclean02 said:

It looks like most of it is over Europe am I reading that right ? I hope I am wrong lol 

East based US which is what we want.  Other indicators are starting to point to this as well I understand

39 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Santa is bearing good gifts this year...even if they come after Christmas: 

 

What's considered a more solid number of members to be a high confidence in the forecast?   Thinking 32-40??

47 minutes ago, griteater said:

I mean, things are lining up really nicely.  The SSWarming looks legit here at the end of Dec (which is early for one), and it's more and more looking like a good one w/ PV split.  Give that a week or 2 for the effects to kick in.  As that occurs, the tropical forcing heads into the phases with +ENSO that would favor -EPO/+PNA.  That's just Jan...but good, cold patterns are favored, in general, in Feb during +ENSO winters...and the effects of the SSW could very well linger into Feb as well.  Positive optimism is warranted IMO.

Grit, Sometimes from what I've read we need the SSW to benefit NA though right, and not Europe or Asia. Some of those weeklies were showing Canada getting the cold though I think

1 hour ago, WFFaithful said:

There is a map on page 57 of this thread.

Thanks

Are there any NC maps out there with totals from last week's storm.  I could not find one on NOAA yesterday

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

The latest 18z GFS would confirm Allan's thoughts. But the good thing is Christmas is looking cold (40s for highs 20s for low). For me that's good enough.  Lets hope it hold true. 

Agree Falls.  Just would like to build a fire

34 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Control run of the Euro had a snow event on christmas day. 

In NC?

45 minutes ago, Solak said:

18z GFS suppresses the 'Christmas' storm across Florida and OTS with no impact on the SE other than FL.

Yep.  Let's see if it stays there in a stronger STJ year. Cold suppression of a system would not be what I think happens very much in  a mod. el nino 

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Dude we all know JYO isn't a real airport 

8 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Models have been trying to kill that western ridge for over a month. It never disappears for more than a couple days. We may hit some transient mild periods but I see no major torch in the near future

Sounds plausible.  Uptick last week of Dec maybe

WS, Does it bring any moisture back north tonight?

Wonder if any of this is going to break back north into the Triangle tonight as potentially modeled

1 minute ago, rduwx said:

Ripping snow in downtown Cary.

Back to sleet now in my area with some snow

This precip is moving from north to south I noticed.  Pushing down out of Va is seems

5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Wonder why it will change back to rain when the upper low comes through?  Are they expecting the surface to warm?

All snow in downtown Raleigh now, it looks like.

EG didn't say. Just showed their model forecast.  You'll need to watch it on WRAL site

WRAL calling for potential of 2-4 inches in Triangle until around lunch before changing back to rain and temps plummet after sundown.  May see some more light snow tonight but not definite on that yet.

Just now, Queencitywx said:

NAM holds with almost an INCH QPF for RDU/Durham/CH

Our temps are decent. Went from 32 down to 30 in last hour

Moderate to almost heavy snow now

Look to go to a warmer zonal flow for week of 16th I believe.  Maybe we catch this snow around Christmas during transition back to a colder regime  

Snowing in Cary now

18 minutes ago, griteater said:

A visual of the upper low dropping down thru Nebraska and Kansas - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid

That's got some real estate to cover in a short period of time

Have a hard time believing we will get more than about 2' in Wake but like was posted earlier ULL's can do some odd things 

Is that the 850 coming over northern Ala?