CaryWx

The GFS ensembles look like they have a stronger HP at 1040.  That's stout if it verifies.  Didn't most of the other guidance have it 1034-1038 or so?

Where's that 850 line ajr refers to lining up?

I like that high placement but not so much where the LP is

edit:  It's baggy though at 1017 so hopefully not too much WAA in my neck of the woods

event trending away from anything in triangle. boo

LP's coming in too far north. Needs to be hugging the GC.

Looks like we got some players lining up in the tunnel.  

1 hour ago, griteater said:

12z Euro

Has me on the edge like last time.

Grit,  The MJO could loop tightly right back inside the COD and pop out in phase 6 or 7 though right?

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just joking around but the eps wont be later 

My old eyes will not be up for it so I'll have to wait until the sun is high kemosabe

Bob is a cool cat but I almost fell for the banana in the tailpipe

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

0z eps is going to start showing the flip back to warm. It was great while the cold and blocking was here tho

You're just playing into the thread here right?

56 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Late next weekend into Monday is really starting to look interesting. Been watching since Grit post yesterday on Euro 12z. Now fv3 and gfs starting to send smoke signals. Im not ready to fire up the bus but i got the keys in my hand. 

Yes, may not be snow sign yet but I can open the fireplace again after mid month I think

1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

CPC on board for transition to colder than average pattern and wintry precipitation for mid-Atlantic (week 3-4 discussion lead by S. Baxter)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Yeah, but about 10days ago they were also projecting much more cold for Jan 7th thru the 18th. Guess that ain't happenin'

I think the 12z euro today becomes more critical about what might be happening

Question on the MJO folks.  Does it ever take a straight dive across the COD from say 4 to 8 (or even 1) like we see it projected to go from 8 back across the COD the other way.

It's difficult to read long lead 'potential' positives when it is now Jan 1st. 

So it sounds like we have virtually zero chances of a cold regime, let alone any snow before say MLK day right?   

Tough around here for the heart of winter.

I can't believe the 2 week outlooks for most of north america east of the rockies right now considering we are heading into what should be the dead of winter.

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

It doesn’t matter if there is a SE ridge or not, 40s-60s aren’t going to get you wintry precip, and that’s about all we get as far as cold goes, the next 2 weeks plus

Some of those 384 global looks actually do have Egypt in the real cold.  I thought you were kidding when you posted "Congrats Egypt..." or whatever it was last week.

Not sure if this still holds but the NWS prediction of below normal temps and above normal precip. from Jan 7th thru 18th is still solid I would think.

weeklies look great for our area

1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said:

All the models are scoring very poorly the last 5 days,anything 5 days and beyond should not be trusted at all until things shake out.

We're pretty much on point here for the 26th based on what was modeled back on the 19th I believe.

44 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

For a place that averages 1-2 feet per year I've never seen so much crying and moaning. You clowns would be suicidal if you lived down here in the Carolina's and had to deal with craptastic winters every year.

errrr....not so craptastic for me. Looking at 8+ for snow so far his year and it is not even 2019

56 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I don't know what y'all are looking at. All of the indices except the PNA are going in the wrong direction or are neutral. CFS is blowtorch across most of the continent as we head into January. The SSW probably won't result in a full PV split and may not propagate downward. The models are slowly backing off that solution. There's a chance of a cold January, but it's far from likely TBH.

I know this is not my sub forum but you guys are in the cross hairs from the 5th thru the 18th per NOAA today.  They uncharacteristically literally spelled it out in their weeklies.  Why the gloom?