CaryWx

2 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I seen where CFS is forecasting low amounts of snow in October in Siberia!  Hope it is wrong!!! That's where we always look for a sign for potential cold in the east in the winter. (when Siberia is above normal snow in October). 

Frosty el nino (modoki style) calls for our cold to be more continental based.  Not Siberian or Polar.  Given that, northern plains and Canada cold is plenty.  We need blocking (-nao) though.

For the first few seconds there I thought we had the geico lizard holding a camera.   

33 minutes ago, Kraychav said:

The water has risen significantly in Lumberton in the last 3 hours. Some of the heaviest rain of the storm for that time period. Several boat rescues. Street in front of my house is flooded, which didn't happen during Matthew. Hard to believe this is happening again less than two years later. People were more prepared but the damage will be catastrophic.

Are there many trees down there?

WxWatcher, You still have power?

4.4" in Cary in last 48hrs

Is there a good link to get rainfall totals by town or area for what has occurred so far?

Thanks WxWatcher

WxWatcher,  You're in a hotel

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still pouring here and all the guidance has things continuing all day. 

WxWatcher,  Do you still have power?  The State and Progress Energy will need to get those crews into Lumberton to restore power later today or tomorrow latest before the river floods everything out on Monday or Tues and access is cut off for a week.

NWS just issued a flash flood warning through 3am now for much of east central NC.  Was set to expire at 12:45am

Since the center of rotation has picked up speed (a very little) and now moving wsw instead of just w, it looks like there is some reduction in precip across northern wake county, but very little

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Lumberton

Oh ok.  Lumberton is pretty much solidly without power I believe.

49 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Power flickering and it looks like LBT has been down for a while.

What is LBT?

Is there not going to be a 6pm (hrly) plot update from the NHC? Is it discontinued since it is a TS overland now?

Has the center of circulation passed in SC yet? No eye anymore

Just got my first decent breezy gusts at 6pm.  Seem to becoming more frequently now though.

4 minutes ago, weatherbubba said:

I think that is possible contingent on where you live in the Triangle.  I live just north of Fuquay Varina and

I wouldn't be surprised to see a 50 MPH wind gust in my area.  Areas north and west of Raleigh probably

will not see any winds much above 40 MPH.  WTVD's Chris Holman did not show any wind gusts above 45

MPH in his wind estimates for the area.  Mother Nature will get the final say as far as how high our winds 

will get.

NWS warning only has 25-35mph sustained with gusts to 50mph for Wake and I be that is just for southern part

1 minute ago, WeatherNC said:

It won't be good, Lumber and Cape Fear basins, based on RAH's historical graphics, Floyd and Dennis type total plus 10" in a single event.

 

 

Good news here is those river basins are way way below their levels when Matthew hit so they can (for awhile) absorb the downpours.

The eye is coming up on the continental shelf now so that will churn up the cooler water from underneath (good) but also set up the velocity and torque in the storm surge & waves (bad) to hit the coast.

957mb down to 953.8mb is not good for us land people and our stuff phish

Thanks Stephen.  The wind gusts tend to come in gales or at least with Fran they did.  The intervals were not consistent that I recall but the winds tended to well up and get louder as the gale got closer.  You would hear crashing or tree limbs snapping.  The gale was then upon you for a minute or so.  Then it would die down again while you waited for the next one.  Like some twisted chinese water torture you just hoped the next one that came was not stronger and put a tree on your home.  This went on for agonizing hours.  Night time was the worst

Does anyone have a link to the latest power outage projection map for NC?  Thanks

5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

IR and Dvorak continue to improve by the minute

Sorry...What is IR?

On 9/10/2018 at 11:33 PM, DaveNay said:

So, uhhh......what's winter really like in the Chapel Hill area?

We just bought land in Chapel Hill (out along Dairyland Rd) and we will be relocating there next summer. After the last 10 years or so of the arctic tundra of northern Illinois, we anticipate that winter down there is going to be a six month long autumn equivalent.

 

Dave,

We get about 9 weeks of "seasonal" winter in the Triangle. 

~11 weeks of spring

~11 weeks of fall

...and about 21 weeks of summer.  [Some of it really hot and humid]

=52

Hope this is not what is modeled.  Hugging the HPC forecast now.