CaryWx

2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Any way you can shift that 8-12 inch line about 50 miles East?!

you know that's a troll joke map, right?

Gotta love the Gainesville snow love on that call map. 

Just had a big bowl of bean chili I simmered all day and washed it down with a couple nice ales.  

Need to come in here and vent a bit. 

Can somebody open a window in this thread.

It'll be gone soon.

4 minutes ago, POWERSTROKE said:

That is not true.  It has happened but percentages are way low

Please tell Mike Maze then.  The 50% may not apply to your area.

If we get thunder tonight could be game on.  Per RAL last evening we get snow 50% of the time within 10days of thunder in winter

Wow grit.  Like the eps going from- "oh I was just all wrong back there at 240 but *this* is how it's really gonna look come Weds"

edit:  You think its done yet with the SW trend?

Looks like we're going back cold guys later in the month but I could use a week or ten days of thaw myself.

Damn boatload of long-term cold air we'll not likely see again this winter is going to be largely wasted.

According to the BRRR model it is 12 degrees outside.

 NAM has "phase delay" apparently

so the 0z gfs will contain the onshore shmampling (ROAB)  right?

34 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I predict your gonna be wrong! Don't follow in professor Packs ways

He may be correct. 

I practically shiver just watching that

5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Lol she deleted one of my post telling Grit that the trends on the models where getting worse. I could care less. The too cold too snow and people trying to talk themselves into believing it will snow in there backyard are funny. Its like every new update is the same thing. Trough is sharper it looks better through about hour 54, Mack comes in BOOM we are going to have a great run then it just takes a nose dive! 

You just need to learn to etequate sir. Etequeting is what it's all about.  Now etequate your posts 

Hey I'm still a CR camp believer.  We need cold in these parts folks.  Heck, the moisture is just down there waiting. It wants to come here.  It's aching to come here.  We just have this rare set up with the HPs.  It's going to break.  I promise you.  Just need to have a storm develop in time to catch the cold.  

3 minutes ago, Snovary said:

More preemergent talk, it pleases me, although I feel like there needs to be some new warm weather banter, frolf is good, maybe Mack could talk tan lines, that would make for good entertainment in the main threads

Oh there's no pre-emergent talk that's for sure, but no snow talk either.  Just plane ole cold

Call it a hunch but bet we get something between Jan 4th-7th.

1 hour ago, WidreMann said:

How many weirdly placed shortwaves does it take to remove all chances of snow for central NC? We're about to find out!

This storm was a small grim reminder of the gargantuan bust last January for Cary.  Albeit I knew much sooner.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qc7jblpaPdM

Just now, Poimen said:

The NAM is a great run for the Triad.

Yep and pretty much a big boo/hiss for the two major metro areas of NC

12 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

also this should scare you if you have visions of clown maps dancing in your head, models may be underdoing the warm nose (imagine that)

 

Jonathan Wall‏ @_jwall

RDU flight observed sounding vs SREF from last night. Notice shallow warm layer from 900-1000mb and the tiny warm nose just before 800mb. It’s as if it was trying to tell us something!

 

Forget all the maps, forecasting and projections.  That is as true as it gets for my area.  If that does not erode it's game cancel.

Just now, CARDC79 said:

Aren't we at best looking at 6:1 versus 10:1 on the map?  Or maybe even 4:1 aka White Rain...

I would suspect so but will let the experts comment.  Regardless you are in a decent if not solid location for the best this storm can deliver outside of the higher elevations.

Just now, SN_Lover said:

For the weenie in all of us

 

I've seen this somewhere before.  That's a 'Brick' wall-hanging isn't it?

Just be surprised if that NAM 36hr look (2.2"s of water in my location) verified

Doesn't the NAM have a tendency to overdue precip.?