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CaryWx

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Everything posted by CaryWx

  1. When I think about the coverage area they have to account for there will be vast differences between say Goldsboro, Southern Pines, Roxboro and Rocky Mount. Then there is Wake county. They'd need to issue micro forecasts
  2. Wish he would incorporate more spellcheck products into his forecast
  3. Kind of confused by that 18z NAM run. Seems like it went off point from 12z and dampened out a bit more. Although looking at 84hrs is a non-no for stuff like that.
  4. UK is usually to far south for it's bias right? If this comes north--whoowee schwing!
  5. Heck, they are probably in for a few more solid hits this winter anyway.
  6. I'm sure it's overdone even in the best of times but gives you an idea what could start happening if ratios go above 10:1 for a bit
  7. There's more alignment than you think, especially up around Norfolk area
  8. Kind of what I'm expecting but wishcasting a jog of 850s further south and east
  9. Most models agreeing now and focusing the center on NE NC/SE VA just not on intensity?
  10. CMC suppression really making the 12z euro a thing of anticipation now. Would think better alignment would be in the cards by now instead of the ways this phase/no-phase is getting handled still.
  11. gfs does seem to be handling this whole thing in a clunky fashion run-to-run more so than how the European is managing it.
  12. I didn't really see that this time on 12z gfs. The 12z euro going to be interesting to see how it continues to handle.
  13. Where does the miller-B transfer look to set up? From SC coast to off Hatteras?
  14. Remember it's the NAM at 84. Overall set up more reliable than p-type specifics/locations and amounts right?
  15. I'll defer to you here certainly Matt but are you seeing severe ice in the Triangle?
  16. Both the ECMWF Ens (M) and (C) have improved for my area over last three runs. Small changes but certainly gotten better
  17. I actually think things improved well for the Triangle on the 6z model outputs. Coupled with last night's runs there is less threat of a major ice storm and trend to more snow/sleet. 6z EPS shows a move towards gfs
  18. maybe, but UK could cave tomorrow if euro holds on it's solution too
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