CaryWx
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Everything posted by CaryWx
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That ICON run show the massive zr we would get in the Triangle from that run?
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1026 HP isn't so stout as other depictions. 1034 and even 1040 albeit they were in higher latitude locations on other runs
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With the NAM I always thought focusing on precip. amounts and temps (bl and maybe 850) beyond about 48hrs is not too reliable. Use it for the large feature movement trends
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At least we're not in Tennessee any more
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WWA Gracie? Don't you mean WAA. If it rains we get less WWAs.
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So from there it progs eventually to transfer around Savannah and move up just inland right? We need it to move east more before turning
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Will this show the transfer you think?
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Just need to see where that LP transfers to. Next 6hr frame but alas it ends at 90 <sigh>
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Hi newbie! You're going to do well on this storm.
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Show us this trick again!
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I may have to clutch my pearls if it does this shift again on the 0z
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The Op run took the top of the inner circle but the GFS center plot mean looks off Myrtle Beach
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Be interesting to see where the scatter plot has the transition LP evolve.
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Some folks getting back into the game this run
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My thought too. That LP was evolving just east of Raleigh at one point
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Where are we getting the transition miller-B Wow? Looks over Wilmington now as opposed to much further north earlier
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Hadn't really begun to look past this weekend but we have some legitimate conditions through the end of the month to get at least one more shot
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Important point to bring up Ross and I agree. In fact I posted on another board about the longer range models ability to even semi-accurately predict such an ice accrual forecast. Let alone a meteorology scientist intuitively interpreting that data to forecast in the longer range. It's such a thin area (zr) of the precip medium (between sleet and rain) that the probabilities of predicting locations for either of these other two is far more reliable
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Looks like a big damn mess to me
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Eric Webb says it ain't happening
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Glad I didn't stay up past midnight for the rest of that Freddie Kruger nightmare. Reading surface temps in Raleigh might hit 50 at some point on Sunday? Ready to throw in a hamper full of towels for the Triangle.
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Yeah, it's been coming north to align with other model guidance. UKMET was way south
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My post from 8hrs ago. Coming true. It'll be even more true tomorrow and the day after I'm afraid.
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That's what I'm seeing
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Not sure how the GEFS can continue to hold serve after that run.
