NorthShoreWx

Here's a cynical take: So if anywhere on the island gets accumulating snow they can say they called it. They probably have forecasted little or nothing nearby so that if that happens, they can say they called it. Don't know if that is true, but false verification has become a national pastime.

We haven't had a calm night here during the last week so it's been a little warmer. LI Sound is doing its thing. Lowest it has been here is 9 on the 21st.

Low here 11.5⁰

Not sure what is official, but I round to the even number.

2015: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62470-january-2026-obs-and-discussion/page/84/#comment-7969408

If we wind up with a period of strong northeast or east-northeast winds here, that will make a mess in terms of coastal flooding, but it will also introduce the possibility of some sound effect snow. Didn't check dT or wind direction, but it seems reasonable. Kinda rare, unlikely, but I'm grasping at straws here. Might work for the NJ coast. That one ephemeral depiction of a 950s benchmark blizzard with a 1040s high over the Midwest would have been something to tell our grandkids about. Maybe I'll tell them about the great model run of '26.

2/2/1976

I had to think too much to figure out that he was using 15:1 ratios at all of those locations. If this thing hits LI, it'll be around 10:1.

I think there was one in January 1948 with 4 or 5 inches during a great stretch of winter.

Speak English.

Is it too soon to start a thread?

NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT. MONTAUK SUFFOLK 13.5 730 AM EAST HAMPTON SUFFOLK 10.0 700 AM SHINECOCK SUFFOLK 8.5 730 AM BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 8.5 700 AM ORIENT POINT SUFFOLK 8.0 700 AM NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 6.4 700 AM PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 5.9 700 AM RIDGE SUFFOLK 5.0 730 AM MOUNT SINAI SUFFOLK 4.7 700 AM FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 4.6 800 AM SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 4.5 800 AM RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 4.0 700 AM ISLIP SUFFOLK 3.0 700 AM CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 2.8 800 AM FARMINGDALE NASSAU 2.0 700 AM OCEANSIDE NASSAU 1.8 600 AM NORTH MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 1.5 700 AM LA GUARDIA AP QUEENS 2.0 700 AM KENNEDY AP QUEENS 1.0 700 AM GRAVES END BROOKLYN KINGS 1.2 800 AM CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 1.5 700 AM WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 1.3 700 AM

If I'm not mistaken, airport observers clear the board every 6 hours. Is that your understanding?

Local perception. Montgomery is down towards central NJ

Looks like a little sound effect snow trying to fire up along the SE Connecticut coast. Winds are west to southwest at the moment. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0Q-1-24-100-usa-rad#

Mixed precip

Of the mesos available on TT, FV3 and RGEM seem to have the best handle on where there is precipitation right now (18z). Both give a coating to most of us this afternoon. Not saying I believe it, but they are off to a good start.

Manhasset Bay Live: https://baycam.manhassetbayyc.org:37777/view/view.shtml?id=288&imagepath=%2Fmjpg%2Fvideo.mjpg&size=1

The water at Kings Point is either right at the freezing point (for western LI Sound salinity) or already frozen. Bridgeport and New Haven are getting close: https://www.weather.gov/okx/Marine_Obs.html

No thanks. There's enough of you doing that already. My point was, that's far from a clear swing and a miss signal.

Do they still dump it in the river?

It's implied. Personally, I find the actual QPF maps more helpful at this timeframe.

That's a lot of QPF for an ensemble mean 5 days out.

I'd be more worried about ice damming than structural issues, unless your house is framed with balsa wood. Based on the temperature forecast and the amount of snow on my roof, I am worried about ice damming.