NorthShoreWx

Meaningfully colder? probably 10 years. Pretty sad.

This progression of daily maxima would not be considered a heat wave using 90⁰x3 97-98-89-99-89-96-101-89-97-91-88

Edit: thanks to all who made this possible

It'll really feel like LI spring when the seabreeze kicks in.

See Bluewave's post.

Really?

I still haven't seen a reasonable justification for this position.

There's lies, damned lies, and statistics

It's a head in the sand approach.

Only 39% of the winters in Don's stats were warmer than this one (61% were colder than this "cold" winter). There seems to be an argument in some posts about where to place the threshold for whining about cold weather. Whining is unhealthy.

From the link that you posted: "Don't brush off that yearly feeling as simply a case of the "winter blues" or a seasonal funk that you have to tough out on your own. Take steps to keep your mood and motivation steady throughout the year." Getting out and allowing yourself to enjoy a cold morning sounds like a big step to combating SAD. https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/physical-and-mental-benefits-outdoor-recreation https://extension.usu.edu/healthwellness/physical/does-physical-activity-improve-symptoms-of-seasonal-affective-disorder

I was suggesting a non-meteorological reason why some (potentially including myself) might do that. I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with the rest. I think there are pros and cons to the choices of time periods to define as a baseline. As for the caveating of multiple posts with ~'the past was different' being inefficient, it's better than ending every sentence with "lol", lol.

Because the past we are speaking of is very recent and part of our experience for those of us pre Gen Z. Maybe warming will go on forever (and maybe it won't), but the new "normals" aren't normal and they have a short history.

Asphalt

Without us blocking for you, Nyack becomes "the coast" and bluewave might as well be back in Long Beach.

I found some snow today https://photos.app.goo.gl/e9GV3EYofdiq7izm9

Jan 2015 was a fail of 50+ miles and was a major storm that impacted a lot of people in the northeast. This was much worse and the extended model agreement was greater than 2015, if only briefly.

This is actually true

Bugs me that the physics packages in the models would have an unusual amount of problems with the aggressive northern stream. Shouldn't that be part of their DNA, especially for the globals?

When I was a kid we used to easily pull flounder in bunches out of Cold Spring Harbor with a hand line. I've never been a fisherman but that was easy. I assume that may have changed.

Took more like 20 minutes in Smithtown

Where's the warm front?

Still 37⁰ in Smithtown. 40+ most places south of the LIE. Latest HRRR gets Smithtown up to 53⁰ at 5pm and then back down to freezing by 10pm.

If the two forecast periods were 12 hours apart rather than 6 it would be more informative. We might be looking at the same qpf in both of those frames.