NorthShoreWx

1/13/78 ice storm: https://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html

That was a reference to an expression from an old regional (mostly joking) argument and is indeed based on the low water content of most lake effect snow, rather than the processes that form it. I've spent some time in lake belts, and if you've ever cleaned 6" of snow with barely a tenth of an inch of SWE off of your car, you'd understand the genesis of the expression. But yes, fake effect is real snow. I'm pretty sure some of the really mammoth lake dumps can run into inches of water equivalent, but most are relatively light.

Fake snow.

Happy Snow Year!

Another 30° + temperature spread on 12/30 in north Smithtown. Low was 31, high was 62. 62 didn't last long, but the run-up was glorious. As of 11:45pm, temp is 41°

Kind of reverse here. I keep the car in the garage. When I took it out at 12:30, the car and the garage interior were still at 40. I opened the windows to let the 60 degree outside air warm the inside of the car.

High temp here was 16 at 1:15. Down to 13 now. Could be problematic with local ponds which really have only had skim ice at best before yesterday.

Friday 12/23 in Smithtown Min 8 Max 59 Range 51 degrees. Storm total rainfall 0.40" Snowfall: Trace Minimum temperature Christmas Eve morning was 7.

OES on LI on a south wind:

A 240 wind might do it. Any north of that and you'll have to watch it from the beach, other than some tea kettle flakes. Where I am, it would take a thread the needle around 215 (I've seen it once, but that wind was closer to 180). New London County and southern RI over to the cape might get a wintry treat.

When OKX updates the p-type but not the temps: Extended Forecast for Smithtown NY Click here for hazard details and duration Wind Advisory NOW until 10:00pm Fri Wind Advisory This Afternoon This Afternoon: A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 62. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=183&y=176&site=okx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=183&map_y=176#.Y6YZunbMJhE PS Max here was 59. Down to 29 as of 4:15. Another 30 degree swing day (and counting)

Meanwhile, HRRR continues to insist on a coating of snow the length of LI between 5 and 8pm (west to east)

0.40" total rainfall In Smithtown. If this had been a snowstorm, we'd be fuming about dryslots.

We already had a 30 degree swing here on Thursday 12/22. From 26 shortly after 12am to 56 at 11:55 pm. Looks like we'll do it 2 days in a row.

Old man winter pulling everybody's chain. We had our big model snowstorm a week ago then it pushed west. Chicago's was just 2 or 3 days ago. I think they got an inch...and I believe a flash freeze with that. Nothing more than light accumulations in the lakes states outside of the snowbelts which will eventually do well.

Might be a long shot, but if it did happen that would support the flash freeze on the roadways. Lots of parties on for tomorrow evening. Would be ugly.

Christmas maybe, but there was a decent snowstorm around the 10th of December 1982 so it wasn't a shutout. I think it was one of those memorable Patriots-Jets games played in that storm, but I might be mixing my football folklore. There was also a big snowstorm around the second week of January 1983 (15th?) that went over to rain for a while along the coast, but left accumulations almost everywhere. Pretty big difference from LI south shore (where mostly rain) to north shore in that one. Even more snow on the Connecticut coast and a lot inland where there was no rain. Plus 5 or 6" that ended as some rain or drizzle about a week before PD1. Scary how I remember stuff when I was young better than stuff from last winter.

@bluewave I've been thinking that for a couple of days. Maybe for friends of ours in East Falmouth too. (CC)

I did do a lot of cross country skiing before Christmas 2 years ago. That was nice.

I wouldn't count 97-98 as a backended winter. There wasn't any winter that year, just a rainy season. However, 4 of the last 10 winters qualify (5 if you include 2015). I refuse to give up on cold snowy Decembers, but I'm an optimist.

They're hard to come by in Florida. I've seen quite a few here. Most were associated with an artic cold front passage accompanied by snow squalls and I don't recall the dates. Others associated with more notable low pressure have been mentioned here (2\76, 3\2005). One thing they have in common is a minor snowfall accompanying the temperature drop. Without precip, the roads tend to dry out. They haven't been common over the past few years, but when you have to be out when a flash freeze is occurring, it will leave a mark.

I might have been confusing 1980 with 1983. I don't think the Yorktown 24 hour period is midnight to midnight. Maybe 8am to 8am? Here are hourlies from KSWF. This isn't error free either...I think most of the 0° temperatures are a stand-in for hours that the temperature is not available. Also, no precip...just sky conditions. The wunderground link is https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/newburgh/KSWF/date/1983-12-25 Date Time Temperature Dew Point Humidity Wind Wind Speed Wind Gust Pressure Precip. Condition KSWF - 1980 19801224 12:00 AM 25 °F 17 °F 72 % WSW 14 mph 0 mph 29.49 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801224 1:00 AM 25 °F 17 °F 72 % WSW 14 mph 0 mph 29.47 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19801224 2:00 AM 25 °F 17 °F 72 % WSW 16 mph 0 mph 29.46 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801224 3:00 AM 25 °F 17 °F 72 % WSW 9 mph 0 mph 29.46 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801224 4:00 AM 24 °F 16 °F 71 % WSW 9 mph 0 mph 29.44 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801224 5:00 AM 24 °F 16 °F 71 % WSW 12 mph 0 mph 29.42 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801224 6:00 AM 25 °F 16 °F 69 % WSW 12 mph 0 mph 29.40 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801224 7:00 AM 25 °F 17 °F 72 % WSW 9 mph 0 mph 29.40 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19801224 8:00 AM 25 °F 17 °F 72 % WSW 9 mph 0 mph 29.39 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19801224 9:00 AM 25 °F 17 °F 72 % WSW 12 mph 0 mph 29.38 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801224 10:00 AM 26 °F 18 °F 71 % WSW 12 mph 0 mph 29.37 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801224 11:00 AM 27 °F 18 °F 69 % SW 6 mph 0 mph 29.32 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 12:00 PM 27 °F 18 °F 69 % W 12 mph 0 mph 29.29 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 1:00 PM 29 °F 19 °F 67 % SW 6 mph 0 mph 29.23 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 2:00 PM 31 °F 22 °F 69 % WSW 7 mph 0 mph 29.20 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 3:00 PM 31 °F 28 °F 89 % WSW 9 mph 0 mph 29.20 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 4:00 PM 31 °F 28 °F 89 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.15 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 5:00 PM 29 °F 29 °F 100 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.15 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 6:00 PM 29 °F 29 °F 100 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.12 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 7:00 PM 29 °F 29 °F 100 % W 7 mph 0 mph 29.11 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 8:00 PM 28 °F 24 °F 85 % W 7 mph 0 mph 29.11 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 9:00 PM 28 °F 24 °F 85 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.14 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801224 10:00 PM 23 °F 10 °F 58 % WNW 29 mph 40 mph 29.18 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy / Windy 19801224 11:00 PM 17 °F 0 °F 47 % WNW 29 mph 40 mph 29.23 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy / Windy 19801225 1:00 AM 9 °F -7 °F 48 % W 35 mph 46 mph 29.37 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy / Windy 19801225 3:00 AM -2 °F 0 °F 0 % W 35 mph 0 mph 29.37 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy / Windy 19801225 5:00 AM 0 °F -12 °F 57 % W 23 mph 35 mph 29.51 in 0.0 in Fair / Windy 19801225 6:00 AM 0 °F -12 °F 57 % W 35 mph 48 mph 29.52 in 0.0 in Fair / Windy 19801225 7:00 AM 0 °F 0 °F 0 % WNW 23 mph 35 mph 29.57 in 0.0 in Fair / Windy 19801225 8:00 AM -7 °F -20 °F 53 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.62 in 0.0 in Fair 19801225 9:00 AM -7 °F -20 °F 53 % 0 mph 0 mph 29.67 in 0.0 in Fair 19801225 10:00 AM 0 °F 0 °F 0 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.72 in 0.0 in Fair 19801225 11:00 AM -3 °F -17 °F 51 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.73 in 0.0 in Fair 19801225 12:00 PM -3 °F -17 °F 51 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.72 in 0.0 in Fair 19801225 2:00 PM -3 °F -17 °F 51 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.71 in 0.0 in Fair 19801225 3:00 PM 0 °F -11 °F 60 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.75 in 0.0 in Fair 19801225 4:00 PM 2 °F -9 °F 60 % W 17 mph 25 mph 29.77 in 0.0 in Fair 19801225 7:00 PM 2 °F -9 °F 60 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.79 in 0.0 in Fair 19801225 8:00 PM 0 °F -12 °F 57 % W 17 mph 0 mph 29.82 in 0.0 in Fair 19801225 9:00 PM 0 °F -12 °F 57 % W 2 mph 0 mph 29.84 in 0.0 in Fair 19801226 1:00 AM -4 °F -11 °F 72 % WSW 12 mph 0 mph 29.84 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801226 3:00 AM -4 °F -11 °F 72 % WSW 5 mph 0 mph 29.85 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801226 5:00 AM -4 °F -11 °F 72 % WSW 14 mph 0 mph 29.85 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801226 7:00 AM -2 °F -6 °F 83 % SW 9 mph 0 mph 29.87 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19801226 8:00 AM -2 °F -6 °F 83 % WSW 12 mph 0 mph 29.88 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19801226 9:00 AM 1 °F -3 °F 83 % W 9 mph 0 mph 29.88 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19801226 11:00 AM 1 °F -3 °F 83 % ENE 9 mph 0 mph 29.88 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19801226 12:00 PM -6 °F 0 °F 0 % WSW 5 mph 0 mph 29.88 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801226 1:00 PM 19 °F -4 °F 36 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.84 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801226 2:00 PM 19 °F -4 °F 36 % W 5 mph 0 mph 29.82 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801226 3:00 PM 19 °F -4 °F 36 % W 5 mph 0 mph 29.82 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801226 5:00 PM 18 °F 1 °F 48 % WSW 7 mph 0 mph 29.83 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801226 6:00 PM 17 °F 6 °F 62 % WSW 5 mph 0 mph 29.85 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801226 7:00 PM 17 °F 0 °F 47 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.86 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801226 8:00 PM 17 °F 0 °F 47 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.88 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19801226 9:00 PM 17 °F 0 °F 47 % CALM 0 mph 0 mph 29.89 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19801226 10:00 PM 15 °F 3 °F 59 % W 5 mph 0 mph 0.00 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19801226 11:00 PM 15 °F 7 °F 70 % WSW 7 mph 0 mph 29.90 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy Date Time Temperature Dew Point Humidity Wind Wind Speed Wind Gust Pressure Precip. Condition KSWF - 1983 19831224 12:00 AM 19 °F 9 °F 65 % WSW 8 mph 0 mph 29.43 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 1:00 AM 19 °F 10 °F 68 % WSW 5 mph 0 mph 29.38 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 2:00 AM 19 °F 10 °F 68 % WSW 5 mph 0 mph 29.36 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 3:00 AM 19 °F 11 °F 71 % WSW 7 mph 0 mph 29.32 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 4:00 AM 19 °F 10 °F 68 % SW 5 mph 0 mph 29.28 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 5:00 AM 19 °F 10 °F 68 % SW 5 mph 0 mph 29.24 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 6:00 AM 19 °F 10 °F 68 % SW 5 mph 0 mph 29.22 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 7:00 AM 19 °F 9 °F 65 % WSW 7 mph 0 mph 29.20 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 8:00 AM 18 °F 11 °F 74 % W 14 mph 0 mph 29.18 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 9:00 AM 18 °F 9 °F 68 % WNW 14 mph 0 mph 29.15 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 10:00 AM 18 °F 11 °F 74 % WNW 14 mph 21 mph 29.14 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831224 11:00 AM 18 °F 7 °F 62 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.09 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19831224 12:00 PM 18 °F 5 °F 57 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.06 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19831224 1:00 PM 18 °F 5 °F 57 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.06 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19831224 2:00 PM 15 °F -3 °F 45 % NW 29 mph 37 mph 29.02 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy / Windy 19831224 3:00 PM 14 °F -5 °F 43 % NW 21 mph 37 mph 29.03 in 0.0 in Cloudy / Windy 19831224 4:00 PM 13 °F -6 °F 43 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.04 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19831224 5:00 PM 11 °F -7 °F 44 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.09 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19831224 6:00 PM 11 °F -5 °F 49 % W 14 mph 25 mph 29.11 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19831224 7:00 PM 10 °F -5 °F 51 % WNW 14 mph 23 mph 29.12 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19831224 8:00 PM 10 °F -5 °F 51 % WNW 14 mph 23 mph 29.14 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19831224 9:00 PM 10 °F -5 °F 51 % W 14 mph 23 mph 29.14 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19831224 10:00 PM 8 °F -9 °F 46 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.12 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19831224 11:00 PM 8 °F -9 °F 46 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.12 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19831225 7:00 AM 4 °F -8 °F 58 % W 14 mph 25 mph 29.20 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831225 8:00 AM 4 °F -8 °F 58 % W 14 mph 25 mph 29.22 in 0.0 in Cloudy 19831225 9:00 AM 3 °F -7 °F 63 % W 12 mph 25 mph 29.23 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19831225 10:00 AM 4 °F -5 °F 66 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.26 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19831225 11:00 AM 4 °F -5 °F 66 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.26 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19831225 12:00 PM 9 °F -1 °F 64 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.26 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19831225 1:00 PM 10 °F -2 °F 58 % NW 17 mph 29 mph 29.26 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 19831225 2:00 PM 10 °F -6 °F 49 % NW 17 mph 29 mph 29.26 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19831225 3:00 PM 11 °F -8 °F 42 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.28 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19831225 4:00 PM 9 °F -11 °F 40 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.30 in 0.0 in Fair 19831225 5:00 PM 9 °F -11 °F 40 % WNW 17 mph 29 mph 29.33 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19831225 6:00 PM 8 °F -11 °F 42 % W 14 mph 0 mph 29.35 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 19831225 7:00 PM 7 °F -11 °F 44 % W 17 mph 0 mph 29.37 in 0.0 in Fair 19831225 8:00 PM 7 °F -8 °F 51 % W 14 mph 0 mph 29.38 in 0.0 in Fair 19831225 9:00 PM 7 °F -7 °F 53 % W 14 mph 0 mph 29.39 in 0.0 in Fair 19831225 10:00 PM 7 °F -6 °F 55 % W 14 mph 0 mph 29.40 in 0.0 in Fair 19831225 11:00 PM 7 °F -5 °F 58 % W 17 mph 0 mph 29.39 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 12:00 AM 7 °F -6 °F 55 % W 21 mph 0 mph 29.39 in 0.0 in Fair / Windy 19831226 1:00 AM 6 °F -6 °F 58 % W 18 mph 29 mph 29.40 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 7:00 AM 4 °F -9 °F 55 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.51 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 8:00 AM 4 °F -9 °F 55 % W 17 mph 29 mph 29.51 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 10:00 AM 6 °F -5 °F 60 % W 14 mph 25 mph 29.60 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 11:00 AM 8 °F -3 °F 61 % W 14 mph 23 mph 29.60 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 12:00 PM 10 °F -4 °F 53 % W 12 mph 18 mph 29.57 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 1:00 PM 12 °F 1 °F 61 % W 14 mph 18 mph 29.55 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 2:00 PM 14 °F 1 °F 56 % W 14 mph 21 mph 29.55 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 3:00 PM 15 °F -3 °F 45 % WSW 17 mph 0 mph 29.56 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 4:00 PM 15 °F -3 °F 45 % W 16 mph 23 mph 29.57 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 5:00 PM 14 °F -6 °F 41 % W 10 mph 0 mph 29.58 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 6:00 PM 12 °F -7 °F 42 % W 7 mph 0 mph 29.60 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 7:00 PM 12 °F -7 °F 42 % W 7 mph 0 mph 29.61 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 8:00 PM 11 °F -6 °F 47 % W 12 mph 0 mph 29.61 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 9:00 PM 11 °F -6 °F 47 % W 12 mph 0 mph 29.62 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 10:00 PM 10 °F -6 °F 49 % W 7 mph 0 mph 29.63 in 0.0 in Fair 19831226 11:00 PM 10 °F -6 °F 49 % W 7 mph 0 mph 29.63 in 0.0 in Fair

That's what happens when I don't post much in the summer. I miss all the important terminology changes. Is weenie still a word?

If there is no snow on the ground beforehand, is it really a Grinch storm?

It did stop abruptly on the snowfall map you posted, probably because of rendering problems with the graphic. The only time I can recall something that looks like the quoted map in this post was late February 2010. The low west of the Catskills must be stacked and occluding, but that's still a whacky deform under the circumstances. Model roller coaster seems likely to continue.