NorthShoreWx

Those temperatures are off by a day. The 12/25 temperatures are actually from 12/24 and the temperatures shown for 12/26 are from 12/25. Of course that might be dependent on what the observer considered the time of observation.

15" in South Amboy and nothing in Metuchin. What's so strange about that?

I remember waking up to that. It was the first snow day in my school district since 1969. I have some old Central Park ob's...peak wind gust was 59 mph and temp dropped from about 35 at 5am to 11 at 9am. Temp didn't budge from the low teens the rest of the day.

Not to dredge up old trauma, but the mix line was super close...right over LI for the first part of that storm. We barely had any rain here at all, less than 0.2" of rain/sleet out of about 3.87" LE for the storm. We had a mix, then some light rain for a short period late morning then slowly accumulating light snow for a few hours before it went nuke late afternoon. There was also a short period of sleet mix a little after dark, but not much. South and southwest areas of the island did get a bit screwed, especially since it was such a close call.

Jeez. So much for not hitting cities.

3 or 4 inches of low density snow over unfrozen ground is not "snowpack".

https://www.instagram.com/p/CmFIaispb3g/?igshid=MDJmNzVkMjY%3D

0.6" here. Streets were completely covered early this morning but it has since melted off the pavement. Snow on the trees...pretty morning.

32F very light snow At the moment, it doesn't look like anything better is going to find it's way north of the Expressway.

Flurrying in north Smithtown.

Noticeable band of OES (OER?) south of LI into the central Jersey coast (south of 195), but it's probably just drizzle on the Jersey shore.

That's a good point. The color differences are so stark that you can lose track of what they mean. My location is in the skunked area but if you look at it closely, it's 70%. Not shocking that it's less than inland, but not a suicidal difference. Another way of looking at it is that there is a 28% higher chance of this outcome away from the immediate coast.

That spread looks great. With the HP oriented the way it's depicted, boundary winds would be more N than NE for most of the individual members.

12/31/62 Central park low temp was 4 and max was 13. Downside: only 16.3" snow winter of 62-62

Is this your forecast for Christmas morning temperatures?

A lot of places do better than ISP on average, although undeniably ISP has had some big storm jackpots in recent years.

I'm not taking issue with any of that. But I'm willing to bet that in 10 years whatever version exists of the American medium range model will be better than it is now. Which is why I think running the 240 - 384 hour op forecasts might be useful for future benchmarking. I don't use extended op runs from any of the current model suite for planning, although I sometimes enjoy the eye candy they print out.

When the model gets better. Some day it will. You could have said the same once upon a time about the LFM past 2 days.

If we don't run it, how will we know when it gets better?

Better than Smithwicks

Yeah, and the stouts are mostly munged with coffee and chocolate. I've had the Smuttynose. Like the 78 better.

I'll have to look and see if I can find it near home. Had it on draft in Woburn this evening.

For the record, Wormtown Blizzard of '78 is pretty good.

Interesting storm here. Normally the LE that we received would have been enough to get us easily into the 15 - 20" range, but the high winds and fractured snowflakes struggled to get past 12". If memory serves, there was also some graupel, but mostly I remember the wind. That was a great year for snow cover. The December snow dwindled down to 2" by 1/7, but then replenished and we had constant snow cover of at least 2" until February 28, with 10" or more from January 12 to February 17.

That's cool, thanks! Using that data, 30-year averages for ISP: 5/1/1970- 4/30/1999 - 24.2" 5/1/1980- 4/30/2009 - 25.2" 5/1/1990 - 4/30/2019 - 32.5" Additional: 70s (5/1/69 - 4/30/79) - 26.9" 80s - 22.8" 90s - 22.9" 00s - 29.8" 10s - 40.1" 5/1/1999 - 4/30/22 (2000's) - 35.8" Prior to 2000 (36 years) - 25.7" POR (59 years) - 29.7"