somecallmetim

If I could marry a country for its beer, it would be Belgium.

Nice to see that GIF, but glad I don't have epilepsy. Also crazy to see the 00Z Euro with a high of 15 two weeks from now.

Was out for a 90 min Jebwalk here in Alexandria--turned to sneet just as i came back about 10 minutes ago, but our rates also dropped way down. Radar reflectivity dropped by a good 10 dbz, so can't imagine that's helping. Just under 5 here depending on where i measure.

I'd be careful trying to extrapolate any positive surprises to the SW at this point, given that part of our problem has been the strength of the primary driving to our west. Their current synoptics and ours tomorrow morning I'd think may not be comparable. And yes, TSSN+ I'm probably wrong and would love it if I am.

I was in Vermont back in 1994 I think, and saw the thermometer at -28 overnight, only to have a storm cut and we rained the same day.

My completely armchair sense is that you can't trust it with precip amounts/intensity/placement, but it usually gets the mid-level warming right more often than not. We then spend lots of time coming up why it can't be right, will be later changeover, etc, and then it happens even earlier than predicted. Hopefully that's not the case this time, but I'm expecting to see a changeover around sunrise here in Alexandria, and will be pleasantly surprised if goes past that. I plan to get out and jebwalk at 5am while i can.

Actually, I'm fine with the snow and sleet glacier if we get what's behind door #1 on top of it. That look reminds me of tracking the '93 Superstorm in college in VT with the rudimentary internet. I thought finding the NWS discussions was the best thing since the weather radio.

60% of the time, their method works...every time.

Maybe we've found the true replacement for the NAM?

Euro looks to be below freezing for about a week starting next Sat. Still low sun angle, that could be a nice solid week of snowcover if it came to pass.

1035 high sliding directly over top could be a somewhat inhibiting factor. If anything does come later in this scenario, every flake should count. That would make me happy, as every flake is sacred, every flake is great. If any flake is wasted, I get quite irate.

Sign me up for the Horror. I read Nuclear War: A Scenario over the holidays. This doesn't seem as bad.

Except the GFS decamped on itself.

Agree that it is likely to continue trending one way or the other, unless it stays the same.

My first memory is from when i was 2, looking out the windows, which were low to the floor, at the great ice storm of Dec 1973 in CT. Mom says i sat on the counter as she did dishes, clapping every time a tree fell in the backyard.

This was me before cable. This plus reg radio, and trying to switch between the three local news stations at about 20 past 6 or 11 so I could catch channel 3, 8 and 30 weather forecasts in CT.

Never having expected snow here in Alexandria, I'll take as a Phyrric victory that the qpf seems to have outperformed. .64 so far.

And here was the WPC 7-day map on Monday afternoon.

Today and tomorrow is actually a great/efficient time to water anything that needs a deeper soak, as you're not having to wet the first couple of inches.

Managed about .25 of drizzle/light rain in Del Ray Alexandria this am. A lot more useful than .25 in a thunderstorm.

Down in Alexandria first storm came from the south, now line incoming from the west. Don't see that often.

Closest pws to us in Del Ray was 1.38.

.3 here in Del Ray. Mostly missed to west then east, but some soaking heavy rain instead of deluge. Lots of distant thunder with a couple very close strikes.

With the massively shifting precip totals over the last few days, including everything from a near complete miss on the 3k NAM to a proper 4.8 inch NAMming and some big numbers showing for several Euro cycles mid-week, it's yet another reminder of the falsity of "this only happens in with east coast storms in winter" (which I know most of us know).

That doesn't surprise me--when the storm arrived here in Del Ray, it came in like the derecho. You could hear it coming down the hill, and it was the strongest, or at least amongst the strongest, gust fronts I've seen with a storm in my 9 years at this location.