Chase

Like the roads on Wednesday night!

Heavy freezing rain has a harder time accreting than light rain, just throwing that into the discussion.

Be fair: Mike Thomas does a good job of explaining the models on social and helping the public gain knowledge. And then there's Sue Palka . Put some respek on her name.

Winter Weather Advisory extended for the metro area until 9am Tuesday.

Nice light snow in Fair Oaks, Fairfax.

Snowing in Luray as well.

Mixing in Luray.

That band of gigantic snowflakes was beautiful! Now we are 100% sleet in Fair Oaks.

Actually mostly sleet in Harrisonburg so far.

Sleet in Harrisonburg according to video.

Snowquester 2013? https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snowquester-the-pictures-tell-its-story-best/2013/03/07/876cbffc-8761-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html

Maybe LWX will hoist the Piedmont/Shen region into the Code Purple.

On his Facebook, he said "Snow lovers haven't been this excited in 2 years . I'd follow what Capital Weather Gang has to say in coming days"

Regions of Virginia:

Those three hour totals.

RNK has started to populate its snow map for Wednesday, giving us this up to the CWA line:

Hooray for Luray!

There are three regions on the map. Charlottesville is lumped in with Hagerstown, just like Fairfax is lumped in with St. Mary's. Could be area for improvement in the future if it ultimately presents a problem, but I love the product!

Confidence isn't high enough/impact isn't high enough to be at Enhanced for the 95 corridor.

Stabilized modeling? or could this still tick north or be stronger?

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 416 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Day 1 Valid 2016Z Sat Aug 01 2020 - 12Z Sun Aug 02 2020 ..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S... ...Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic... We continue with a broad Slight Risk area that encompasses various threat areas associated with an anomalously deep upper trough. A well defined surface wave will lift through the Ohio Valley this evening. Cells in the warm sector will be moving fairly quickly, but the combination of moderate instability and precipitable water values well over 1.50 inches will yield heavy short term rain rates capable of producing flash flooding in sensitive basins. Out along the warm front, storms initiating off the Blue Ridge or more generally in the very moist and unstable air mass pooled along the Virginia portion of the warm front will have potential to produce very heavy downpours. Increasing inflow speeds could yield pockets of training or propagation back into the inflow if organized clusters can persist into the evening hours. Overnight the emphasis will shift to the deformation zone of the deep layer cyclone approaching northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan. Strong lift will work with instability rooted at mid levels to produce some slow moving convection, with local inch per hour rates likely. Finally, a threat exists over eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia for the next few hours, as the sea breeze and presence of a lingering frontal zone will yield a local maximum of storm initiation, allowing for cell mergers within a very moist and unstable environment. The latest 12Z HREF exceedance probabilities are quite impressive -- with probs of >1"/hr rates peaking over 80% across this area between 20-00Z, with probs of >2"/hr rates equally as impressive during the same time (40-60%).

WWA for the Blue Ridge.

17... 22... what's it matter? Of note, I thought all the local news was calling for the 60s so maybe it's a data problem on LWX's website.

Showing 62 at IAD... Forecast high is 45 on the LWX Point Forecast.

When can I plant grass seed?