michsnowfreak

That winter was crazy in that we did so much better in Detroit than you guys did in Toledo, but then further north towards Flint they actually had a snowy winter. Talk about gradient. Toledo did have SOME light snows, but the lnly worthwfile storm was that April 8 incher. I remember as it was opening day for the detroit tigers, I had tix and was watching weather closely for a snow out. We had a dusting up here, but the heavy snow stayed just to our south.

I agree 100%. I wish I studied for exams back in college half as much as i've studied detroit's weather data history, I would have aced every single thing. It's fascinating to see different trends in weather over the years. I always say, winters are like the snowflakes they produce: no two are the same. But there have been certain decadal trends that are sometimes seen. A lot of people have unrealistic expectations for winter to begin with, but ever since our stretch of great winters in the Midwest, computer model accessibility for free, and media hype, it has gotten even worse.

Actually, looks like Toronto's on a stretch of above average snow seasons per your sig.

It's hard to believe that winter was ten years ago. It truly was incredible. It actually defied the odds in terms of getting so much snow with such cold weather.

So true. Quite a few wintry Novembers have preceded blah Decembers the past decade.

The irony of someone who has palms in an area that only stays frost free for 5 months of the year using the word "delusional".

Oh I definitely think Feb is the best month of winter this year, as has been the case often recently. I think too many are confusing a change around new years as meaning arctic cold. No one is saying that. Just get me a more seasonable pattern and im happy. You and I EASILY can get snow in above avg patterns. The midatlantic usually needs some cold, which looks like they may have some colder anomalies. It basically increases snow chances for all while waiting for a deep winter pattern.

Can you elaborate lol?

Lol. But it's definitely good to see that the flushing out of the anamolous warmth shortly after christmas has not been "can kicked" down the road.

I was referring more down the road several weeks.

Thanks for the links, I'll save them! When you go from having a snow machine in your backyard to painting your grass green & having palm trees in a humid continental climate, lmao. But yes, his posts are all trolling. This december will likely be a top 5 warm December. We've only had 2 good cold and snowy Decembers the last decade, we've done actually decent with White Christmases, but December themselves have left much to be desired. What's really interesting is that we have no problem consistently getting early and late season snowflakes (Oct/May), November cold snaps and snowfalls, and loads of snow in February, but it's like pulling teeth to get a good December. Detroit's winter warming over the last 100 years is entirely from December, as Jan (-0.5°) and Feb (+0.5°) are a wash. There have actually been many winters in the past where december was by far the most severe winter month.. That did happen more recently in 2000, 2005, & 2016, but for the most part it's as if We are two completely different climates in december and february.

March Nino snowstorms are definitely common. You would still see snow in a colder pattern in Jan/Feb tho. Remember, you arent in Atlanta anymore lol.

I got 37.1" of snow in a +5.0F winter last year. Temps are not the end all to begin with for people north of 40N. But when it comes to those temp departure maps, people really start to lose focus when getting hung up on departures. When you see Canada reds and southeast blues....its still way colder in Canada than the southeast. Average Jan high/low is 14/0 in Winnipeg, 13/-6 in Saskatoon, 0/-15 in Yellowknife....versus 43/25 in DC, 47/28 in Richmond, 53/33 in Atlanta.

A lot of people here say the same thing, It seems like the seasons are getting pushed later. I look at it as an annoying december reprieve. We have no problem getting early and late snows, but Dec has become less harsh and Feb more harsh. Though we won't this year, we actually have lucked out quite a bit here with White Christmases, but the decembers themselves have mostly sucked outside of 2 the last decade. Meanwhile, February (outside of a couple of clunkers) has been snow heaven.

Dec has been horrendous. We had snow on Halloween, snow Thanksgiving weekend, and will have absolutely no snow Christmas week. Hope its a white easter lol. Obviously winter will come, but the snowbelts in the North may suffer most of all, because they're the ones who rely on stacking feet upon feet and they have no base to start with.

That's why i'm so into weather stats. Weather has always been fascinating and always will be. I brought up the record warmth In December of 1877 & 1881. But adding on to that, the winters of 1877-78, 1879-80, and 1881-82 were very mild winters that featured at least 1 or 2 record warm winter months. Sandwiched between those were brutally cold winters of 1878-79 and 1880-81. I can't imagine what was going on with the jet stream and all other factors that 5 year stretch.

I would assume

boston doesnt even keep track of snowcover anymore. And how can they lose 30-days when they only averaged 35-40 days (1"+) to begin with. I mean I dont live there, but sounds like a bunch of crap to me. Here is nyc avg days with 1" snowcover NYC 1920s- 29 days 1930s- 21 days 1940s- 32 days 1950s- 15 days 1960s- 28 days 1970s- 25 days 1980s- 19 days 1990s- M 2000s- 20 days 2010s- 27 days

White Christmases havent really been affected away from the east coast. And the east coast has seen its share of early season snowstorms over the past few decades. Seems flukey to me. Since 2000... New York City: 1 of 23 Christmases white Providence: 2 of 23 Christmases white Albany: 7 of 23 Christmases white Pittsburgh: 7 of 23 Christmases white Portland: 9 of 23 Christmases white Chicago: 9 of 23 Christmases white Cleveland: 10 of 23 Christmases white Detroit: 12 of 23 Christmases white Buffalo: 15 of 23 Christmases white Minneapolis: 16 of 23 Christmases white Burlington: 17 of 23 Christmases white For Boston, from 1923-1944, only 1 Christmas was white. Though its happened several times, Boston has never had more than 2 White Christmases in a row.

National snowcover is 15.4%. Last Christmas, 53.0% of the nation was covered in snow.

Notable Christmas Events in Detroit's records 1871 -- 4.2” of snow fell on Dec 22nd 1882 -- 6.1” of snow fell on Dec 23rd 1884 -- 4.2” of snow fell on Christmas Eve. 1886 -- 6.5” of snow fell on Christmas Eve. 1889 -- 61 degrees on Christmas Eve accompanied by thunderstorms! 1895 -- 59 degrees on Christmas is followed by 6.5” of snow the next day 1901 -- A Norman Rockwell Christmas scene with "moist snow" falling late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day, with 0.62" liquid, and depth of snow 5.5". Snow "adhered" to everything. Unfortunately, a high of 41 degrees melted much of the snow. 1915 -- Snow began around sunset Christmas Eve and continued into Christmas day, totaling 8.0”. Some rain mixed in at the end but did little to mar the scene. 1929 -- The snow depth is 12” inches, the 2nd deepest amount of snow on Christmas day in Detroit's records (behind 1951). This is thanks to a 13.8” storm on December 18/19th. 1931 to 1933 -- Yuck! Three consecutive Christmas Eve's topped 50 degrees (57, 57, 50) though only one (1932) topped 50 on Christmas Day. 1945 -- Late on Christmas Eve and into Christmas morning an ice storm occurred, with the icy pavements causing almost impossible travel & walking conditions. The rainfall of 1.16” is a record for Dec 25. 1951 -- After a deep snowcover to begin with, heavy snow falls Christmas day, heaviest in the morning, dropping 6.2” and bringing the snow depth to 13”, the deepest White Christmas in Detroit's record. We paid for it as the next 6 Christmases were not white. 1957 -- A very rainy Christmas week. 0.94" fell on the 18th, 0.18" on the 19th, 1.00" on the 20th, and 0.99" on the 25th. All wet, no white. 1964 -- After six straight White Christmases, a warm and wet one. 1965 -- A very heavy rainstorm set in Christmas Eve, flooding area basements. After parts of the Detroit area got up to 4” of rain (3.75" at DTW, 2.50" at City Airport), the rain turned to snow on Christmas day. Only 0.5” of snow fell but winds of 50 mph caused blowing snow. 1973 –- Christmas morning started with a heavy 7” snowcover but all day rain & temps in 40s dropped snowcover to 2” slush by evening. 1974 -- Though it was 40 degrees on Christmas Eve, the snow depth was still 6” from the 19.3”-inch storm of the 1st (and falls after that). 1975 -- Though the snow depth of 2” inches was good for a White Christmas, a storm hit on the 26th dropping 6.3” more of snow. 1979 -- A wet & warm Christmas. 1.58” of rain fell Christmas Eve & Day with temps falling from the low 50s through the 40s. 1980 -- After a fresh 3-inch” snowfall Christmas Eve, bitter cold set in with a low of -8F on Christmas morn. 1982 – A record 64 degrees in Detroit is accompanied by thunderstorms. 1983 -- Mother Nature payback. The COLDEST Christmas one year after the WARMEST Christmas! High/low 4F/-10F. 1990 -- Fresh from a 5-inch” fall on the 23rd, the 1990s starts with the only White Christmas of 1”+ of the decade (tho a Trace was on the ground in 1993, 1995, & 1996). 2000 – Detroit had 6” of snow on the ground, but 15-18” covered the ground from the northern suburbs towards Flint. 2002 -- Perfectly timed Christmas snowstorm. Snow began around 10:30 p.m. Christmas Eve and ended early afternoon Christmas Day, totaling 6.4” at Detroit. 2003 -- For the second year in a row, snow fell Christmas Eve & Day. Though only 1.7” fell at Detroit, up to 3” fell nearby. 2004 -- A cold, white Christmas. After Detroit saw 8.9” of snow on the 22nd, the low dipped to -4F Christmas morning. 2008 -- Christmas Eve rain atop a foot snowpack froze into a glittery 7” snow crust for Christmas Day. 2013 –- The official snow depth of a trace on Christmas morn was a bit or irony in the historic 2013-14 winter, as snow buried the ground nearly constantly from early December to late March, with one of the only times of scattered depth being the Christmas to New Years period. 2015 –- A springlike Christmas Week saw temps hit the 50s daily from the 21st-25th. The high was 58F on Christmas Eve & 50F Christmas Day. 2017 –- A 4.5” snowfall hit during the afternoon & evening Christmas Eve, then on Christmas day, snow squalls dropped another inch with blowing snow, falling temps, and bitter wind chills. 2020 –- Snow developed around 10:30pm Christmas Eve and continued throughout Christmas Day, dropping 3.0” at Detroit. 2022 – With a few inches of drifty snow already down, more snow developed late Christmas Eve and lasted through Christmas Morning, dropping another 2.4” at Detroit and bringing the depth up to 4”.

You guys are talking about a White Christmas, I had just looked a bunch of historical odds on this. I have mentioned this before, but no idea why Boston doesnt do snow depth anymore since 2003. Stations in the box nws are literally the ONLY ones I can find anywhere (of places that get snow) that dont do snow depth. White Christmases in Detroit are pretty much 50/50 (officially 47%), and the last 20 years saw 10 white, 10 not...2022, 2020, 2017, 2016, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2003. Bostons historical probability shows 1 in 4 Christmases should be white, yet they have only probably had 2 in the past 20 years (based on what you guys said). It seems more flukey than anything that snowfall increased and white christmases disappeared during the 2000s/10s. Midwest/Great Lakes Marquette – 95% (1961-2022) International Falls – 95% (1948-2022) Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022) Alpena – 79% (1916-2022) Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022) Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022) Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022) Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022) Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022) Lansing – 55% (1863-2022) Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022) Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022) Chicago – 45% (1901-2022) Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022) Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022) Omaha – 37% (1948-2022) Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022) Columbus – 27% (1948-2022) Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022) Louisville – 15% (1900-2022) Northeast Caribou – 93% (1940-2022) Burlington – 74% (1896-2022) Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022) Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022) Albany – 42% (1938-2022) Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022) Boston – 24% (1891-2003) New York City – 14% (1912-2022) Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022) Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022) Mountain West Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022) Denver – 38% (1921-2022)

We all know this year will not be kind to those looking for a White Christmas, but here are the historical probabilities for some places. It is interesting to note that the memories of those who claim Christmas was always white are almost always...wrong. Locally I find it interesting that no matter how harsh or mild December was, White Christmases in the Detroit area have remained relatively steady (a 50/50 shot basically) regardless of the month of December's overall weather. 10 of the past 20 were White. The worst decade for White Christmases locally was the 1990s. Midwest/Great Lakes Marquette – 95% (1961-2022) International Falls – 95% (1948-2022) Sault Ste Marie – 94% (1931-2022) Alpena – 79% (1916-2022) Minneapolis – 72% (1899-2022) Green Bay – 68% (1948-2022) Grand Rapids – 64% (1903-2022) Dubuque – 57% (1896-2022) Flint –-- 56% (1921 – 2022) Lansing – 55% (1863-2022) Milwaukee – 50% (1893-2022) Detroit – 47% (1900-2022) Toledo –- 46% (1893-2022) Chicago – 45% (1901-2022) Cleveland – 42% (1893-2022) Fort Wayne – 40% (1909-2022) Omaha – 37% (1948-2022) Indianapolis – 28% (1896-2022) Columbus – 27% (1948-2022) Kansas City – 21% (1893-2022) Louisville – 15% (1900-2022) Northeast Caribou – 93% (1940-2022) Burlington – 74% (1896-2022) Portland (ME) – 59% (1893-2022) Buffalo – 58% (1893-2022) Albany – 42% (1938-2022) Pittsburgh – 31% (1948-2022) Boston – 24% (1891-2003) New York City – 14% (1912-2022) Philadelphia – 13% (1893-2022) Washington DC – 10% (1893-2022) Mountain West Salt Lake City – 52% (1948-2022) Denver – 38% (1921-2022)

Back to the weather...all ensembles in agreement that the warmth starts to scour out bigtime after Christmas, so while Im never ready to rush Christmas, it will certainly be nice to turn the page to January weather-wise. This December will go down with 1877, 1881, 1889, & 2015 in the shit category.

Few things. #1) Where can you browse toronto's climate data online? I really can't find non-US stations or at least detailed data of them. And they need to get with it (updating the normals) as it's almost 2024 haha #2) If you REALLY have been following, you would know nobodys denying climate change, they're mocking a troll that everyone is tired of. Have you ever actually seeing some of the things he has said? Most of them arent even acknowledged or replied to, they are so outlandish and ridiculous. He doesn't like stats. Just will say your in denial if you don't think Toronto winters will warm 30° in 20 years. #3) funny you mention having warm Decembers close together. 3 of Detroit's top 4 warmest Decembers occurred in 1877, 1881, 1889.