michsnowfreak

Yeah, I noticed a couple decent events in PA. I have a friend in Hollidaysburg, PA (not sure which CWA that is) & he has posted a few good snowstorms. Last year we only finished slightly below avg snowfall in SE MI but Im one of those that figures cold & snowcover into the mix for how good, or not good, a winter is lol. The current avg at Detroit is 45", the longterm avg 41". Last winter saw 37.1" and this winter so far 22.6" at DTW. During these warmer winters, we get a few real good bouts of blinding snow, thundersnow, and extreme low ratio snow (case in point- Jan 12th saw 4.6" of snow on 1.04" liquid, nearly all snow) but its short on the deep winter feels. Weve not really suffered too badly at all in the snowfall dept outside of this winter, but snowcover has taken a hit. The past 9 winters (im including this winter, so could always add a bit), ever since the infamous strong Nino of 2015-16 shook everything up, the avg snowfall is 40.1" & avg days w/ 1"+ snowcover is 40. The previous 8 winters the avg snowfall was 58.3" & 1"+ snowcover days 61. The longterm avg would be about 41" snowfall, 50 snowcover days. So not bad on paper at all, but a sharp reduction from a super snowy stretch, with 5 of the 9 winters being very mild to boot. Im all for neutral too. It could shake things up for everyone. No matter how "good" or "bad" the pattern is, youll have winners and losers, but it seems neutral is a more favorable pattern for more widespread winter conditions.

My sister is 5 miles away from there and could see glow in the sky.

After recording 5.14" precip & 16.0" snow in January....I have seen a grand total of 0.17" precip & 2.5" snow since Jan 31st.

Yup. The arctic blast in Jan definitely got the Lakes moving, but theres only so much you can get in a 10-12 day period. Friend of mine who does plowing/salting had a 100-hour week in mid-late Jan and the rest of the season just isolated saltings and maybe 2 other plows. I follow this group on facebook "view from my window" where people all around the world post pics of the view out their window, and seeing lots of people in Eurasia posting and "complaining" about too much snow. Lots of them saying things like "I like snow, but this is too much". Needless to say, snow lovers from the northern US from Minnesota to Maine did not appreciate the bragging

Regardless, Id have to imagine this year is rock bottom for the east. We havent been doing as widespread poorly in the midwest/Lakes for the most part, but this winter has to be rock bottom for the upper midwest especially. Even though they have had good snow years recently (just last year in fact), this winter is so unlike anything Ive ever seen for those places. To unseat the historic warm winter of 1877-78 (also a strong Nino) as many did is crazy. And I have NEVER seen a winter with near bare ground in northern MI in Feb.

When it comes to weather analysis, especially locally, I would give myself 10/10 in past climatology and probably 4/10 in all the other factors that make it happen (ENSO, NAO, PDO, etc etc). I understand what atmospheric factors are good/bad for a good/bad winter, but I am really novice when it comes to how they work together and definitely at how to forecast them (I dont ever forecast though lol). I always look at ENSO as one piece of the puzzle. It may be the biggest piece, but there are lots of other pieces that will have somewhat of an effect. The mean of a strong El Nino here is a guaranteed mild winter, and snowfall/precip will very likely finish below normal. But what else happens and how extreme will be dictated by other factors, as sometimes late winter can get cold, and nearly unanimously December will be mild. If i chop this winter into 3rd, by calendar month at Detroit, this is what I get: DECEMBER 2023- 3rd warmest on record (40.1F), and tho precip was near normal, it was the 2nd least snowy on record (0.1"). Literally as bad as it gets (we did have snow on the ground last 4 days of November tho), but a warm December in a strong El Nino here is basically a 100% surefire bet. Just didnt expect it this warm. JANUARY 2024- Temps only slightly above avg (27.5F) and this was due to excessive cloudiness causing higher mins. The avg high was actually -0.2F. It was the wettest Jan on record (5.25") and snowfall was above avg at 17.0". It was a good month overall, and the parade of nonstop snow, rain, and ice was quite a surprise for what is supposed to be a dry winter. FEBRUARY 2024- 3rd warmest on record (37.1F) and 4th driest (0.24"). What a crazy switch from Januarys storminess, as El Ninos "dry" showed up in full force. Despite the warmth, nearly all of the minimal precip we did have was snow (3.1"). DJF 2023-24- 4th warmest on record (34.8F). Precip finished a little above avg (thanks to Jan), which goes against typical Strong Nino climo, although it was nowhere near the top 20 wettest. Snowfall finished below avg, but thanks to Jan, it too was nowhere near the top 20 least snowy DJF's. This is why looking at seasonal averages doesnt always tell the tale. We are all guilty of analyzing final numbers, but if you would have showed me a crystal ball and said these are the final numbers of this strong Nino, I would sigh and probably say "Typical strong Nino. Im not surprised". But I didnt dream the winter would be as wacky as it ended up being. Basically a nightmare of warmth that was masked by a 2 week siege of deep winter in January. We had wind chill warnings and advisories for like 3-4 days straight, and we can EASILY go a good, enjoyable winter without seeing any. Had it been even a more modest stretch of cold, this couldve been the warmest winter on record. The pic below was taken Jan 15th with a temp of 5F and wind chill near -30F. Definitely not my most scenic pic, but its one where you can "feel" the cold. I should change it to B&W and caption "taken during one of the warmest winters on record".

A memory popped up, reminding me that on this date last year we had that crazy snowstorm that came in like a wall of white, complete with thunder and lightning. Got me thinking that in these horrible mild winters, we really can get a few good bouts of blinding snow. Its one of the FEW consolations of two shitty winters in a row. Heavy snow with visib 1/4 mile or less: Jan 22, 2023 Jan 25, 2023 Mar 3, 2023 TSSN Mar 10, 2023 Nov 27, 2023 Jan 12, 2024 TSSN Feb 15, 2024

Me too! We are only on our 2nd subpar winter here, and that's MORE than enough for me. Last year wasn't too bad snowfall wise, but way too mild. This year absolutely sucked. This is my 29th winter of measuring snow in my backyard. My lowest snow season was 25.5" (2011-12) & highest 96.2" (2013-14). I have only received 20.6" to date this season.

Once again, you are not telling me anything I don't know. I have Detroits peak snow depth every winter. I have discussed many times over the years the rise, fall, & rise again of snow in the area. It does not matter what station you use (Detroit, Toledo, Chicago, etc) a well defined tanking of snow was seen from the 1930s-50s. The frequency of low snowfall at all stations was pitiful. And yes I would love a repeat of 1890s-1900s winters (with a few exceptions of course). It was an excellent era for cold and snowcover following the rollercoaster of cold/snowy and warm/snowless 1870s-80s winters. Snow depth is always an interesting stat because it helps corroborate the snowfall numbers, and usually matches well with the snowier and less snowy decades. The average yearly peak depth was highest in the 1900s & 2010s, and lowest in the 1940s: Avg Yearly Peak Snow Depth Per Decade: 1890s- 10” 1900s- 12” 1910s- 10” 1920s- 8” 1930s- 7” 1940s- 6” 1950s- 7” 1960s- 7” 1970s- 10” 1980s- 9” 1990s- 9” 2000s- 9” 2010s- 12” 2020s- 8” Frequency of 12+ depths 12 of 27 years 1885-86 thru 1911-12 8 of 86 years 1912-13 thru 1997-98 9 of 26 years 1998-99 thru 2023-24 Winters with peak depth of 12"+ 1885-86: 25" 1892-93: 18" 1893-94: 14" 1894-95: 14" 1899-00: 26" 1903-04: 15" 1904-05: 16" 1907-08: 15" 1908-09: 12" 1909-10: 14" 1910-11: 12" 1911-12: 13" 1926-27: 12" 1929-30: 14" 1951-52: 16" 1974-75: 19" 1977-78: 15" 1981-82: 18" 1984-85: 12" 1991-92: 12" 1998-99: 24" 2000-01: 12" 2004-05: 12" 2008-09: 14" 2010-11: 16" 2013-14: 20" 2014-15: 18" 2017-18: 14" 2020-21: 14"

Insane. And California mountains were begging for snow much of the 2010s. The ebbs and flows of west/east.

Of the 25 la nina winters since 1950, 15 of them I would gladly take a repeat, and only 3 are a big hell no. After multiple record snow years spoiled weenies rotten circa 2005-2015, a lot vocally had that mindset that an average winter or even a slightly better than average winter was just not acceptable. Sounds so ridiculous now.

I'm fine with strong. Strong ninas are actually the snowiest here. Modoki have such wildly different outcomes in snow & temps, makes you wonder how much of a player the modoki part is.

I have had extensive knowledge of Detroits entire climate record for decades, a local climate history encyclopedia if you will. Most long time posters here know this. It's interesting that all of a sudden, someone who does not live anywhere near here is an expert on our climate history . It goes without saying that things are different now than they were 150 years ago in many aspects at any climate station. The picking and choosing of what old data we like & don't like is ridiculous. Detroits roads were DIRT in the 19th century and the transportation was HORSES. Yes, i can see how taking temps in the exact spot now in a concrete jungle with cars everywhere is apples to apples . Present day DTW, while absolutely properly calibrated, placed, sheltered & monitored, is still near tons of concrete, especially since new runways were built several years ago. Meanwhile, Detroit City airport hasn't been a 1st order station since 1966. All automated, the record is sprinkled with missing data, questionable temperatures, no snowfall reports, and questionable rainfall amounts- it is no more accurate or used for official purposes than any other coop site. Lastly I am not surprised that the top three are being undermined by him, I fully expected it. But any and all available records for the area are similar. 1881-82, 1931-32, 1889-90 were very warm winters, and none of them had anywhere close to the stretch of wintry weather we saw for a few weeks this January. That is the difference. Toledo also placed at 4th warmest winter, edging out 1881-82 by 0.1° but behind 1889-90, 1931-32, & 1879-80. Chicago placed 5th, behind 1877-78, 1931-32, 1879-80, 1881-82.

Thanks! Hard pass on '88-89 & '11-12. But one good thing here is that for whatever reason, strength of the Nina doesn't matter (unlike Nino). All strengths of Nina have good/bad seasons but lean towards the good ones. Strong Ninas actually are the snowiest strength. Nino to Nina transition years and high ACE are also things I like. And of course, the age old "law of average" that after a highly anamolous winter the next one is the opposite type. As the tropical season and Nina develops throughout the year, this should continue to be an informative thread.

It's definitely unlike any winter I can recall. The good part is that it's unfathomable that next winter or any winter in the near future will be like this in this region. The winter has basically been non-existent (by midwest/Great Lakes standards) outside of that 2 week stretch in January. It was a pretty good stretch of deep winter, so had it not been as potent as it was, the winter would look even worse.

Wikipedia was wrong. Imagine that . Can you confirm the other years were correct? Or do you have a list of modoki years?

My ENSO knowledge is quite limited, so I go with what I read online lol. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation#:~:text=Recent years when La Niña,2011%2C and 2016–2017.

No arguments from me there.

I figured. In any event it will be interesting to see how the season does unfold. it will also be interesting to see how la nina develops. Certainly early signs are encouraging here for a MUCH better winter next year, but a lllllong way to go.

I also like to look at trends in general for the region (even though I hone in on Detroit). LOTS of mild winters in the 1930s-50s. Im fact, in particular the early 1930s & early to mid 1950s winters were absolutely dominated by warmth and lack of snow. But then an abrupt shift in the 1960s-70s. I mean there were a few scattered warm winter months for sure, but any shitty winter in the 1960s-70s would most likely be due to bad snow patterns rather than warmth. But one of the most intriguing things Ive ever seen in the climate record is the winter yo-yo from 1874-1882. I have noticed it before in passing, but I really started paying more attention to it with this winters warmth making news about Minneapolis surpassing the infamous 1877-78. This stretch of years literally alternated from furnace to ice box every other year. WHAT in the world was going on with the weather patterns over that 8 winter stretch? Each of the 8 winters has remained firmly entrenched in Detroits top 20 coldest/warmest winters list (4 a piece) for the last 140+ years. (all rankings current as of 2024) 1874-75: #2 coldest Detroit, #15 coldest Chicago, #7 coldest Toledo 1875-76: #19 warmest Detroit, #7 warmest Chicago, #9 warmest Toledo 1876-77: #19 coldest Detroit 1877-78: #16 warmest Detroit, #1 warmest Chicago, #8 warmest Toledo 1878-79: #14 coldest Detroit 1879-80: #12 warmest Detroit, #3 warmest Chicago, #2 warmest Toledo 1880-81: #13 coldest Detroit 1881-82: #1 warmest Detroit, #4 warmest Chicago, #5 warmest Toledo

Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season 1933 DTW: 42.6" 2005 DTW: 36.3" 1893 DTW: 45.5" 1926 DTW: 46.3" 1995 DTW: 27.6" 2004 DTW: 63.8" 2017 DTW: 61.0" 1950 DTW: 42.2" 1961 DTW: 28.1" 1998 DTW: 49.5" AVG DTW: 44.3” vs 41.1” mean (8% above mean) all years since 1874; 2 MAN, 3 AN, 2 NN, 2 BN, 1 MBN; 7 out of 10 above median. I also note that for Modoki La Ninas snowfall is also above avg: 1973-74: 49.2" 1975-76: 55.9" 1983-84: 51.8" 1988-89: 25.1" 1998-99: 49.5" 2000-01: 39.0" 2008-09: 65.7" 2010-11: 69.1" 2016-17: 37.9" Avg: 49.2 vs 41.1” mean (20% above mean) all years since 1874. Question though and I apologize if I missed it. Are we just assuming this years ACE will be high? Or is it a foregone conclusion?

How far back to YYZ records go? Surprised none of those warm 1870s-80s winters weren't on the list. 1957-58 and 1965-66 locally had warm, wet Decembers followed by cold dry rest of winter. Each had less snow here than this winter and were really many weenies nightmare pattern (warm and wet to cold and dry). It's surprising that 1957-58 wasn't warmer (outside December) due to a strong Nino and many mild winters preceeding that year. 1972-73 was interesting. It was amidst one of the coldest stretches of the climate record, so I'm wondering if that made it a bit colder overall (arguably the same for 1965-66). We had enough snow to make it an avg snow season (even a tick above at the time). January was warm and snowless but Feb was cold. The first half of March was and still is the warmest on record then we got slammed with a big St Paddy's day snowstorm. Some historic strong Ninos that were very warm winters include 1877-78, 1905-06, & 1918-19. Most areas had little snow as well (esp 1918-19). My take is that strong Ninos are going to have other factors at play (the current weather/climate cycle of the time, Pacific, blocking, PNA, NAO, etc) but in the end, a strong El Nino is never a sign for a good winter, at least in the Great Lakes.

I have a good friend who I always tease because she loves Ohio and she is always saying most of the state is not like what you see on the freeway.

From wettest Jan to 4th driest Feb. *EDIT* bite your tongue. Don't be jinxing next Feb Feb was 3rd warmest, behind only 1882 & 2017, edging past 1998. Winter DJF finished 4th warmest, behind 1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90. Still a solid 2° colder than the incredible winter of 1881-82. Despite tying for the second least snowy December and tying for the 19th least snowy February, a pretty snowy January kept this DJF snowfall (20.2") well outside the top 20 futile list. If no more measurable snow fell the rest of the way, this season (22.6") would tie for the 13th least snowy season on record. However, if 2.6" or more falls, it would not make even the top 20.

Oh for sure. When people in the north say "we didn't have a winter" they don't mean it literally. In places like TN or NC If they get one or two measurable snowfalls in a winter and a good cold snap, it's remembered as success. But it's a different beast in the north. For me personally, this winter has probably edged out 2011-12 and 1997-98 for worst winter in my memory. It has been remarkably boring outside of a 2 week stretch in January, but there still has literally been some snow in those boring times lol.