michsnowfreak

Days since the last blizzard warning (issued by gunshy DTX no less) and a big dog are not one in the same. Since that blizzard warning, we have had multiple double digit snowstorms (including a 17" storm) and the snowiest winter on record. It is entirely plausible to have a blizzard warning with a 2" snowfall. I wonder if they would actually properly issue a blizzard warning if it was not a large snowfall (the publics perfection and actual definition of a blizzard are quite different). They did feb 11 2003

I wouldn't worry too much about extrapolating the 84 hour nam lol.

When is the all important sampling?

8.9" on Dec 22/23, 2004 6.5" on Dec 24/25, 2002 5.4" on Dec 24/25, 2017 3.0" on Dec 24/25, 2020

I'll take the 6z gfs please.

You're welcome! Xmacis is a climate stat dream. You can find data for any period you'd like.

The historical odds of a white Christmas in Toledo are 45%. Since 1874 when records began, Winter has actually COOLED in Toledo by 0.6°. The Dec 25-Jan 5 period has warmed 1° since 1874. The frigid 1970s are a dream come true for the crowd that loves to pump climate change into every article. Starting a dataset in 1970 gives an automatic regression line that's going to be more dramatic because the 1970s winters were so abnormally cold. I've seen it time again and it's laughable. It's not a 30 year average. It's not a 100 year average. It's not a period of record average. A more accurate wording would be "since the coldest time in our climate record, we have warm…"

The rule of thumb is quite simple. We get more frequent snowfalls and they have a higher ceiling for the big storms. This season has not started out particularly "normal" for anyone, but the end result is the same. Everyone wants for their backyard, no matter what the event.

Crazy wrap around on all the models too. Snowing and blowing with temps in the single digits.

Usually strong winds cut ratios. Those are some fun runs though.

I loved that storm. Jackpotted here to boot. 11.5" huge drifts. Blizzard conditions. Again... I'm sure the public considered that a blizzard over February 11th. Just my opinion, blizzard is an overused word. Give me 17" of snow with 25 mph winds on February 1, 2015 over 65 mph wind gusts and blowing snow on February 11, 2003.

Actually there was. I remember very distinctly because this went hand-in-hand with what I'm always harping on. The general public misinterprets the word blizzard. It was February 11th 2003 and the national weather service issued a blizzard warning along the Arctic front. We had 2" of snow on the ground and we got another 1.2" with the front in absolute blizzard conditions. The warning was verified but it was one of those times that the word blizzard is not to be associated with feet of snow. They get blizzard warnings in the plains with no snow falling sometimes.

In my opinion those are two overused issues brought up. Dry slots happen in most storms but it's not like any areas prone to them more than another. As for blizzard? I think the last one was February 2003 but blizzard is blizzard is more about wind and visibility. I'm totally fine getting a big storm without blizzard criteria. But if it happens, bring it

Your palms will have snow on them in April

December always seems to be gray no matter what the pattern. Certainly wouldnt call it a fall month lol, despite a string of milder than avg Decembers.

Last year, we lucked into back to back snowfalls Nov 27-29 (4.3" + 2.0") but as I recall they were isolated to just southern Michigan. Dec 2020 was also very flukey to SE MI. We basically had average snowfall while everyone else had a dumpster fire. I want to be buried all winter, but if the snow gods must I'll sacrifice another 200-300% of average snowfall February for some better times in the mid December to mid January timeframe.

While the circus of models continue their indecisiveness....it does appear that mid month amd beyond looks more wintry. Hopefully translates to a white Christmas for most of us.

November 29 gfs upgrade

Did the GFS undergo its late November "upgrade" as planned?

A definite theme lately.

Woah slow down there

There's 28 days left in the month.

I'm as guilty as anyone else in complaining about the models every year, but I can honestly say I have never seen more run to run variability than we've been seeing lately. Not just in the op runs (that's not so unusual), but even the ensemble means.