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michsnowfreak

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Everything posted by michsnowfreak

  1. michsnowfreak
    Its not just the Euro. The CANSIPS has been unwavering with a likely too-cold look. And the CFS with its daily changes hasnt gone bonkers with warmth either and has stayed hell bent on a cold most-of-the-country look in Feb-Mar (except the far north, which is a moot point for snow lovers that far north). Im not making ANY forecast, Im just saying its not April or May anymore. Its now August, and the same models that ARE showing a record strong El Nino ARE NOT showing a record warm winter. Nor are they getting warmer as we get closer. If it was the opposite and all models showed it unexpectedly warm, say historic warm (since we already expect a warm look in a strong nino)....the SAME people dismissing these models now would be analyzing them verbatim.
  2. michsnowfreak
    For your area and mine its literally impossible. For a place like NYC or Philly its POSSIBLE but EXTREMELY unlikely. How winters like 1972-73 or 1997-98 happened are insane to even think about. Even in a terrible pattern, "bad luck" has to be involved too. A milder than avg winter is obviously the go-to choice. But in the end, the Nino will be historic, the winter will likely be supbar but not historic. The warmest winter on record for Detroit is 1881-82 with a mean temp 36.9F, which is +8.5F against the current average. The least snowy is 12.9" in 1936-37, which is -32.1" against the current average. In my lifetime theres never been a winter under 20". Raindance drew a map a bit back that had Detroit at +4F with 31" of snow. Thats honestly not a bad guess at all at this early stage imo.
  3. michsnowfreak
    The east coast is naturally more feast/famine and a much warmer climate to begin with from NYC south. But if the much wetter than avg conditions that all guidance shows for the coast comes to fruition, youd have to imagine the odds of having a good snowstorm or two are quite high.
  4. michsnowfreak
    I really dont think so. There hasnt been any debate for months. I think some confuse the weather with enso. Any discussion of the wintry potential this coming winter and the same few act like its disrespecting super nino as if its their child. Its bizarre really. I really dont care how historic an el nino (or any other enso is). Hell i dont care if el nino peaks at +7...I care about the weather imby/region. And at this point I see absolutely nothing that points to a historic warm, snowless winter here...and certainly nothing pointing to a harsh winter either. So in the end, no matter how historic the nino is, the sensible weather of winter will be what i will remember (or choose to forget lol).
  5. michsnowfreak
    Agree, but sadly some will never keep an open mind, admit error, and stop attacking those with alternate viewpoints.
  6. michsnowfreak
    People always focus on a total anamoly too much as well, warm or cold. Do you know how long a winter season is and how many fronts, systems, etc will be occurring during the season? Even if someone nailed a forecast seasonal anamoly, theres no way to tell whats going to happen with the actual weather.
  7. michsnowfreak
    1951-80 stable? By stable you mean coldest because it had the abnormally cold 1960s and especially 1970s? The 1950s were way warmer than the 1970s, so i dont see how that's "stable". How about we just use 1931-60 normals.
  8. michsnowfreak
    You know the drill lol. The summer of 1987 through July 31st was hotter at Detroit than the summer of 2026. Since winter all we hear about is the conus avg. Forget regional weather patterns or local weather. Its wild that weather, on a weather board, is now constantly overshadowed by a singular average temp for the United States.
  9. michsnowfreak
    Some assume theres some linear connection with the strength of nino and how warm it will be and simply ignore everything else.
  10. michsnowfreak
    97-98 wasnt the disaster here that it was on the east coast, but it was one of the last strong Ninos Id pick, only '82-83 was worse. Interesting about '97-98 is that it was front-loaded and Feb was a shutout. mid Nov to mid Dec was actually decent. So was the 2nd half of Jan. Everything else sucked. Shittiest strong Ninos locally: 1982-83, 1997-98, 2023-24 Best strong Ninos locally: 1877-78, 1972-73, 2015-16 At Detroit, the least snowy strong Nino is 1982-83 with 20.0" and the snowiest 45.0" in 1972-73.
  11. michsnowfreak
    My sister was born July 18, 1991. I was 8 years old and I remember how brutally hot and humid it was. My mom always talks about how it was so hot when she was born.
  12. michsnowfreak
    I got 0.37". Honestly more than I expected.
  13. michsnowfreak
    Wow we really dodged this heat. 88 at DTW today should be hottest of the week.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Those are neat snow maps. Any idea how far back they go? I tried populating 1972-73 and it wouldnt load.
  15. michsnowfreak
    Yeah thats a good point. Ive heard the average that 1" of sleet is about 3" of snow. Every location has its nuances. Up here, you get so many mood flakes that dont show in any aspect of the weather stats. In any given snow season, there will be approximately 35-45 days with a Trace of snow in addition to all the measurable snowfall. Its what happens in a Great Lakes climate. So "how many times did it snow last winter" is never a valid question here for determining winter severity. In the south, a disproportionate amount of wintry precip is ice vs snow, which is unfortunate for snow lovers because I imagine the mindset is "hey, its finally cold enough to snow, why is it raining?".
  16. michsnowfreak
    Just a suggestion if you guys make future snow maps closer to winter. It usually helps if you give a rough % of average to go in line with your thinking. I knew what raindance was getting at with the snow map (admittedly just a preliminary joke map rough idea) but it always looks funny when you see something like "snowy" in Atlanta and "not snowy" in Marquette.
  17. michsnowfreak
    Let's not forget....I LOVE Fall. So as much as I love winter, not yearning yet. However, July 5th starts my annual "bring on Fall" attitude.
  18. michsnowfreak
    So nice to let fresh air in the house! Beautiful day. Very low humidity, 50s to start rising to the mid 70s.
  19. michsnowfreak
    See my above post- almost EXACTLY what I was trying to say! I have lots of trees in my yard, drive a fuel efficient vehicle, work from home, recycle...I do my part. And I frankly could not care less about a warming planet. I have 4 distinct seasons regardless of ENSO or anything else. This year I have had wind chills to -40F and heat index to 105F, air temp from -10F to 98F. Most years have a similar range. Much like the east coast with its noreasters, its fascinating to see how often and how many ways the Great Lakes influence weather. If ALL of that is overshadowed by "but we are warming 0.5F per decade"....well, tell me youre not a weather enthusiast without telling me.
  20. michsnowfreak
    I agree with that, especially forecasting-wise. But I was more referring to it in past tense. Everytime anyone brings up this past winter's cold, like clockwork, the post gets dissected by the same few discussing warmth in the west/CONUS/globe etc. It really seems that a few of the warmistas have that chip on their shoulder. You should be able to use the words cold/snow WITHOUT prefacing "yes i know the worlds getting warmer" every single time. I was a weather observer before I had the internet, and I knew my local climate data history before I know how to read a single model map. Ive always thought it was cool to look into trends of local weather, and living in a place with extreme seasons, it's neat to see subtle trends that dominated decades past and how theyve changed for the better or the worse. I dont care if last winter was an inferno in the entire world, I will remember what happened here, and here it was a cold, white winter. Glittery snow for months straight gets an A+ for scenery/feels, but there is zero doubt in mind that the cold pattern that dominated the region was PROHIBITIVE to heavier snowfall here. So yes, Im saying if I wanted more snow in last years pattern, I actually needed it warmer. And of course the same rings true for the opposite. If its a colder CONUS winter, it wont mean a damn to me if I get a mild winter.
  21. michsnowfreak
    Good post. 99% of weather enthusiasts dont care what the temp ranking was in the Conus or the world...they care what happened in their area. The combination of a cold winter in the east and a record warm winter in the west in '25-26 brought some posters to ignore their own weather and concentrate on places elsewhere to a level I've never seen in 24 years on weather forums.
  22. michsnowfreak
    Its absolutely gorgeous. The past 2 winters here were nearly all powder. Here's the thing...powder is my absolute favorite. Its beautiful and last winter seemingly every night the snow glistened like diamonds. But I realized that even though I was getting my favorite powder, I missed a good wet snow. The winter of 2022-23 was the last time we had lots of paste snow. Below are 3 different 2023 snowstorms.
  23. michsnowfreak
    There was lots of snow left in the mountains when I went to Alaska last month! The last flakes of the season at Detroit were May 2nd. So if we can squeeze out early flakes in October, there will only be 3 calendar months in 2026 I don't see snow of some kind.
  24. michsnowfreak
    Interesting to see a map of 1877-78. I knew the core of warmth was in the upper midwest, because while it was certainly a mild winter at Detroit, it wasnt nearly as extreme as in Minneapolis. Ive mentioned it before, but the 1875-1882 period had a very odd "every other year" pattern locally of very cold winter followed by very mild winter. 1875-76, 1877-78, 1879-80 & 1881-82 were all warm winters overall. I have no idea how ENSO played into it outside of 1877-78. 1877-78 at Detroit (using present-day departures): Nov: 39.2F (-2.0F)....Snow 1.0" (-0.9") Dec: 38.1F (+6.8F)....Snow 1.9" (-7.0") Jan: 27.3F (+1.5F)….Snow 23.1” (+9.1”) Feb: 29.2F (+1.2F)….Snow 17.4” (+4.9”) Mar: 41.3F (+4.1F)…Snow M (est 1-2")) Apr: 53.4F (+4.5F)…Snow 0 (-1.5”) Huge storm Jan 31st (14.8"). The winter followed a somewhat similar path as other strong Ninos in that there were some very good winter blasts but the warmth won out. And realistically, thats the best formula to run a strong Nino in the north. You want that roller coaster up and down, helps with some good storms and assures you get some arctic blasts with the warm spells. Way better than mundane, stagnant 40s every day.
  25. michsnowfreak
    I literally did not step foot outside today because I know it would give me a headache.
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