michsnowfreak

Southeast Michigan saw high temps ranging from 80-87F yesterday followed by lows ranging from 35-40F last night.

DTW got up to 86F. Dont think my area got higher than 80-81. Actually glad it got into the mid-80s because todays record high was such low hanging fruit, better to break it than tie it. Going into the 30s tonight with a frost advisory.

Forecast high of 82 today and a low of 37 tonight lol.

Thanks to some good conversation with @Stormchaserchuck1 I dove further into the ENSO data for Detroit. And its actually surprising to see how relatively close the different ENSO states are, sensible weather wise. I suspect if many of you look at your local data, you may also be surprised. I think one of things is we all look into some of those "token" years and assume all ENSOs of that magnitude will yield similar results, but when you look at the mean...yes there are differences, but the differences are not as cut and dry as those cookie-cutter "what to expect this winter" graphics noaa puts out every fall before an expected El Nino or La Nina winter. Strong El Ninos here, as expected, are by far the warmest and least snowy...and weak La Ninas are the wettest/snowiest. But weak El Ninos are surprisingly the coldest and driest. Neutral are generally the preferred winters (and it doesnt show in this data, but 2nd and 3rd year neutral is usually REALLY the best). But all of that noise aside, all of the data is FAR closer than I was expecting. ALL El Ninos (27 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 27.9F DJF precip avg: 6.07” Season snow avg: 37.4” 1”+ snowcover avg: 44 days ALL La Ninas (25 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 27.8F DJF precip avg: 6.77” Season snow avg: 44.9” 1”+ snowcover avg: 49 days ALL Neutral years (23 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 26.6F DJF precip avg: 6.66” Season snow avg: 44.6” 1”+ snowcover avg: 55 days 1950-2025 AVG (75 years) DJF temp avg: 27.5F DJF precip avg: 6.40” Season snow avg: 41.5” 1”+ snowcover avg: 49 days DIFFERENT EL NINO STRENGTHS Strong El Ninos (9 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 30.7F DJF precip avg: 6.44” Season snow avg: 29.9” 1”+ snowcover avg: 31 days Moderate El Ninos (7 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 27.6F DJF precip avg: 6.29” Season snow avg: 42.3” 1”+ snowcover avg: 45 days Weak El Ninos (11 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 25.8F DJF precip avg: 5.63” Season snow avg: 40.4” 1”+ snowcover avg: 55 days DIFFERENT LA NINA STRENGTHS Strong La Ninas (7 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 27.7F DJF precip avg: 6.72” Season snow avg: 49.2” 1”+ snowcover avg: 53 days Moderate La Ninas (6 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 28.0F DJF precip avg: 5.46” Season snow avg: 37.7” 1”+ snowcover avg: 40 days Weak La Ninas (12 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 27.8F DJF precip avg: 7.45” Season snow avg: 46.0” 1”+ snowcover avg: 51 days

For reference if youd like to look up your areas data: Strong Ninos: 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16, 2023-24 Moderate Ninos: 1951-52, 1963-64, 1968-69, 1986-87, 1994-95, 2002-03, 2009-10 Weak Ninos: 1952-53, 1953-54, 1958-59, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, 1979-80, 2004-05, 2006-07, 2014-15, 2018-19 Strong Ninas: 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89, 1998-99, 1999-00, 2007-08, 2010-11 Moderate Ninas: 1955-56, 1970-71, 1995-96, 2011-12, 2020-21, 2021-22 Weak Ninas: 1954-55, 1964-65, 1971-72, 1974-75, 1983-84, 1984-85, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2016-17, 2017-18, 2022-23 Neutral: 1950-51, 1956-57, 1959-60, 1960-61, 1961-62, 1962-63, 1966-67, 1967-68, 1978-79, 1980-81, 1981-82, 1985-86, 1989-90, 1990-91, 1992-93, 1993-94, 1996-97, 2001-02, 2003-04, 2012-13, 2013-14, 2019-20, 2024-25

For the past several years Ive been reading the ENSO threads in the main weather forum. Usually some good discussion. Different regions prefer different ENSO states. But I decided to actually really dive into the date (for Detroit) because it was pointed out that its not always as cut and dry as it seems. I analyzed the winters since 1950 (which is when the main enso chart starts). We all have seen those cookie-cutter "what to expect this winter" graphics they put out every year for El Nino or La Nina. But with enso being just ONE piece of the puzzle, its really not as simple as that. I always knew that, but to see how close actual data was was shocking. IN SUMMARY- By far, STRONG El Ninos are the worst, as expected. They are by far the warmest and least snowy. But not really that dry - near normal precip in fact. The driest enso state is them all is a WEAK El Nino - but thats also the coldest and with the most snowcover. Colder than any La Nina or even neurtral! The wettest and snowiest state is a WEAK La Nina. There are definitely differences, but the differences are far smaller than I anticipated. THE DATA: When you break down simply as El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral, the data is remarkably close. ALL El Ninos (27 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 27.9F DJF precip avg: 6.07” Season snow avg: 37.4” 1”+ snowcover avg: 44 days ALL La Ninas (25 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 27.8F DJF precip avg: 6.77” Season snow avg: 44.9” 1”+ snowcover avg: 49 days ALL Neutral years (23 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 26.6F DJF precip avg: 6.66” Season snow avg: 44.6” 1”+ snowcover avg: 55 days 1950-2025 AVG (75 years) DJF temp avg: 27.5F DJF precip avg: 6.40” Season snow avg: 41.5” 1”+ snowcover avg: 49 days DIFFERENT EL NINO STRENGTHS Strong El Ninos (9 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 30.7F DJF precip avg: 6.44” Season snow avg: 29.9” 1”+ snowcover avg: 31 days Moderate El Ninos (7 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 27.6F DJF precip avg: 6.29” Season snow avg: 42.3” 1”+ snowcover avg: 45 days Weak El Ninos (11 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 25.8F DJF precip avg: 5.63” Season snow avg: 40.4” 1”+ snowcover avg: 55 days DIFFERENT LA NINA STRENGTHS Strong La Ninas (7 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 27.7F DJF precip avg: 6.72” Season snow avg: 49.2” 1”+ snowcover avg: 53 days Moderate La Ninas (6 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 28.0F DJF precip avg: 5.46” Season snow avg: 37.7” 1”+ snowcover avg: 40 days Weak La Ninas (12 since 1950) DJF temp avg: 27.8F DJF precip avg: 7.45” Season snow avg: 46.0” 1”+ snowcover avg: 51 days

It's really fun to look at old anecdotes (ie newspapers are a GREAT resource) for how the climate has always caused a high degree of conversation and disagreement. You can't find newspaper quotes from the 1860s where they mocked "the oldest inhabitant" for their exaggerating weather/winters from their youth. I have found some absolute GEMS spanning many facets of the weather that are nearly identical thought processes to today. Overall, I think we all agree on some stuff and disagree on other stuff...but the most difficult aspect can be trying to convey ourselves on the internet.

I dont typically feel anything outside of top 20 is particularly noteworthy, but since we get some of the most random warm stats posted in here, I might as well point out that Jan-Feb, the coldest two months of the year, ranked in the coldest third to coldest quarter of the period of record for many places in the southern Lakes/northern OV. Again, it was no 2013-14 thats for sure, but for a winter that was overwhemingly forecast to be so warm, it was a pretty cold stretch for the wintriest time of the year. Jan-Feb 2025 Detroit: 54th coldest of 152 Flint: 43rd coldest of 109 Saginaw: 45th coldest of 114 Ann Arbor: 57th coldest of 144 Grand Rapids: 47th coldest of 132 Chicago: 61st coldest of 153 Indianapolis: 49th coldest of 154 Cincinnati: 37th coldest of 153 Columbus: 38th coldest of 147 Dayton: 39th coldest of 132 Fort Wayne: 44th coldest of 129 South Bend: 49th coldest of 132

A very cold dataset here as well. The latter 4 winters were much harsher than the 1st 4 here, however. 1960s winters were often cold/dry here. 1960-61: 26.2F DJF (57th coldest of 152); 18.0” snow (136th snowiest of 145) 1961-62: 25.0F DJF (40th coldest of 152); 28.1” snow (115th snowiest of 145) 1962-63: 20.4F DJF (5th coldest of 152); 29.7” snow (110th snowiest of 145) 1967-68: 25.4F DJF (46th coldest of 152); 30.6” snow (105th snowiest of 145) 1981-82: 21.9F DJF (16th coldest of 152); 74.0” snow (4th snowiest of 145) 1993-94: 23.9F DJF (30th coldest of 152); 45.8” snow (46th snowiest of 145) 2013-14: 20.9F DJF (8th coldest of 152); 94.9” snow (1st snowiest of 145) 2014-15: 23.3F DJF (20th coldest of 152); 47.5” snow (41st snowiest of 145) Of those 8 winters: 1960-61 had below avg snowcover 1967-68 & 1993-94 had near avg snowcover 1961-62, 1962-63, 1981-82, 2013-14, & 2014-15 had WELL above avg snowcover

Yes. Like I said it's a more recent thing, but it got out of control in April. I think that's when DTX took notice. Lmao it had 88 last Friday when all surrounding areas were 80-82. But again, DET has no more weight than ARB, YIP or any coop station. First order stations are what the NWS makes sure are all good (DTW, FNT, MBS).

Detroit city temps are absolute fake garbage. I have told you many times, many non-first order stations have calibration issues that are left unattended. They arent the importance of a first order station (like DTW). The Detroit city thermometer has ran a little warm for a while, but it went bonkers in a week or two ago, running some 5-6F too high. DTX finally had the thermometer fixed a few ago per the coop leader.

The avg temp, which obviously is the main metric, ranks as a 2-way tie for 40th warmest year to date (Jan 1-Apr 24), so 39 years were warmer and 111 colder. The avg high temp ranks as a 3-way tie for 25th warmest, and the avg low ranks as a 4-way tie for 58th warmest. Obviously, this is entirely due to March/April (mostly March). I am not a fan of doing random rankings on a given day, its better to let each month play out. Jan-Feb ranked as a 2-way tie for 54th coldest at Detroit, meaning 53 years were colder & 97 years were warmer. The highs were a tie for 58th coldest & lows a tie for 53rd coldest.

Trees rapidly flowering after the warm days off and on the past week.

Even in our country, a mere speck on the globe, patterns are absolutely not the same from one place to another. I do not agree with bluewaves generalizations simply because you cannot predict the future, period. As he is familiar with NYC more than I am, Im not going to go into detail about anything, but i feel some of these assertions as about low snow winters of the past vs low snow winters today, or why there was heavy snow last decade, etc etc are a bit of a stretch. The coldest period of NYC's climate record would still be a super mild winter by todays standards in Detroit, and again, look on a globe and see how close the two are. NYC is not going from some winter paradise to the tropics. I also feel that the feast/famine approach has always applied to the east coast, even if its more extreme now. But its interesting to see that you are seeing that more in new england as well, as I have not really seen that here, and our temperatures are likely quite similar. Despite all the microclimates and nuances, I stand by the fact that from a pure snowfall perspective, anyone north of 40N is sitting pretty in a climate when winter precipitation on average is increasing yet it is still plenty cold for months to see fun snow times.

Thats insane. Whats funny is id heard several of the normies refer to this as an "old fashioned" winter. lmao, yet snowfall was way below avg, but give them a cold, white Jan & Feb with ice covered lakes and it does the trick I guess. Meanwhile, 2 years ago we saw 8" more snow than this season but we heard what a mild winter it was, and I also heard multiple times in some heavier snow winters that finished well above avg that this was a "normal" MI winter. Ive learned over the years that the general public base their general opinion of a winter (here at least) off of how cold and snowcovered Jan/Feb are. Doesnt matter how much (or how little) snow falls in Oct-Dec or Mar-May. And Ive learned that the general consensus of snow weenies is all about that final snowfall number, regardless how the winter was overall. (Again, these generalizations dont apply to all).

That 7 year "snow drought" talk is very over the top IMO. Its a simple regression to get closer to the mean. Its been happening since the beginning of climate records, and its how averages come to be. I looked at a few places. For starters, it looks like only NYC is the one who can claim their all-time low for the past 7 years, not the entire region. And for what thats worth, there were other 7 year periods closer to this 7-year low (1920s & 1950s) than any were to the 7-year high from 2010-16. But the bigger picture is that I just dont understand how the anomalously high number of heavy snow winters in the 2000s and 2010s are just dismissed as if they never happened when discussing recent low snow years. I mean, we arent talking generations ago, and we arent talking slightly above avg snowfall. We are talking very recent years that we ALL remember and that set one heavy snow record after another. NYC avg snowfall last 7 years: 14.9” 7 yr avg 2009-10 thru 2015-16: 41.0” POR avg 28.2” 21st century avg: 29.0” Boston avg snowfall last 7 years: 26.6” 7 yr avg 2008-09 thru 2014-15: 60.7” POR avg: 42.4” 21st century avg: 44.8” Portland, ME avg snowfall last 7 yrs: 51.4” 7 yr avg 2011-12 thru 2017-18: 79.8” POR avg: 65.7” 21st century avg: 66.6” ********** Detroit avg last 7 years: 36.6” 7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 59.8” POR avg: 40.9” 21st century avg: 45.8” Chicago avg last 7 years: 32.2” 7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 51.0” POR avg: 36.4” 21st century avg: 38.0” Milwaukee avg last 7 years: 40.8” 7 yr avg 2007-08 thru 2013-14: 59.0” POR avg 47.3” 21st century avg: 47.2”

I personally already like the look for next winter for the simple fact that the worst case scenario for winter here (strong El Nino) appears to be the least likely scenario for 2025-26. Multiple other things going in our favor too, but not going to get into details this early. Also, a reminder to all that there is a 2025-26 discussion thread.

Youre looking at just a small sample of La Nina years though. Youd really want to look at the entire mean of them and see if any trends have occurred/changed along the way. Several of those winters were actually quite dry here, which strays from the typical la nina mean.

Since the April 10th snowfall, the forecast wet, active, and potentially severe period of weather has produced a grand total of 0.02" rain at DTW

Every year on this date I always remember this snowfall on April 20/21, 2021. Hate late spring snow all you want, but the scenes were beyond stunning, an absolute nature masterpiece. It was the perfect storm. The spring greenup was ahead of schedule, then snow began the afternoon of April 20th and snowed all night until the early morning hours of April 21st. Temps fell to 32F for most of the snowfall, but as the snow ended towards sunrise, skies immediately cleared and temps fell to 29-30F for several hours before the late April sun did its thing. It created some surreal scenes. DTW saw 3.5" of snow, I saw 4.4", Monroe had 5.7" and Toledo had 5.0"

Thanks! No noticeable trends here, quite a variable dataset

Do you have a list of years that were cold neutral following la nina?

With yesterday's warmth and the flowers on my maple starting to emerge, I wanted to see how much they would open in one day. You can really see the difference.

DTW hit 83 yesterday. Most of SE MI topped out between 80-83 (the faulty warm sensor at detroit city airport hit 88, but it's literally running 5-6° too warm, a tcc dream). In the past 2 weeks, southeast Michigan has seen temps from the 10s to the 80s, 1-2" of snow and a tornado.

Yeah we had lots of T depth days too. Jan-Feb basically had no totally "bare" ground. T-1" is better than 0 imo. As you said, looks like winter. And very wise words from your father!