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michsnowfreak

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Everything posted by michsnowfreak

  1. michsnowfreak
    Its crazy to think an area that relatively far north can have an entire snow season with 0.2" or 1.2".
  2. michsnowfreak
    My low mark is 21.5" in 2023-24. Looking at all the strong Ninos, snowfall ranged from 20-45" here. So a realistic early guess for a strong nino for me would be 30-35". Much less dependent on the boom or bust storm than you guys.
  3. michsnowfreak
    Huge difference in climo between ORD & DCA tho
  4. michsnowfreak
    Luck, good and bad, happens in pretty much all winters. Everytime you guys talk 82-83 i cringe because it was definitely the worst strong nino of the bunch here, but I also realize some bad luck was involved in January and February. The extremely uncharacteristic lack of snow here was likely an extra slap in the face coming off the very snowy 1981-82.
  5. michsnowfreak
    Perfectly stated. Ive noticed its very common with some to make winters of yesterday seem harsher than they were, winters of today seem less harsh than they are, and use all-time severe winters as baseline for "typical" cold. Its funny to see so much pushback by some in admitting last winter was cold. Mind you, this a winter expected to be very mild by these same folks. Since it was cold, all we hear is "it was record warm in the west" "this used to be the norm" (it did not) "it was colder in the 1970s" (who said it wasnt?) etc etc etc
  6. michsnowfreak
    Id take Dec 1997 over Dec 2015 but 2015-16 as a whole over 1997-98.
  7. michsnowfreak
    I made a winter purchase yesterday too! Bought a new sled for my nephew, he has an August bday but is obsessed with sledding. Never too early to prepare
  8. michsnowfreak
    Almost my response exactly!
  9. michsnowfreak
    54F at DTW this morning. Though we did come close with 55F on July 23, this was our coldest morning since June 24th.
  10. michsnowfreak
    I love living in Michigan. Like ALEK, I plan to live here the rest of my life. However, if I had to live somewhere else it would be northern New England.
  11. michsnowfreak
    Different regions definitely prefer different ENSO's. For here its NO contest - La Nina all day, any day. Strong El Nino is typically the worst ENSO state you want to see here in winter. We still get multiple rounds of snow/winter in strong Ninos, just usually less of it than normal. For the midatlantic where it's more of a feast/famine climate, the history of large snowstorms in El Nino vs La Nina makes it easy to see why you guys prefer Nino.
  12. michsnowfreak
    Beautiful day. Summers winding down fast!
  13. michsnowfreak
    Sept 1997 looks cooler than avg but nothing crazy.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Had to go back to March to find me saying I was doubtful of a strong el nino. "we wont know what its like for months". I believe early March to late August - 5.5 months, qualifies as "months".
  15. michsnowfreak
    It can torch away all 3 months and it will still be colder than an average winter in your area.
  16. michsnowfreak
  17. michsnowfreak
    Its all part of his schtick. Troll posts that almost never have anything to do with the weather. You have a board full of people whove followed the weather for decades and he actually thinks people take any of his one-liners seriously.
  18. michsnowfreak
    Great shots! You should pop back up during winter!
  19. michsnowfreak
    If December is as mild as early thoughts, im hoping we get a Thanksiving wintry blast. 4 of the 5 past Thanksgiving weekends have been snowy in the Lakes, and the last 2 years there's been snow on the ground when cutting down the Christmas tree black Friday. It really helps to get that early jolt if Decembers gonna suck.
  20. michsnowfreak
    Possible. Just hope youre wrong lol. January being the coldest month is still very workable with temps solidly above avg here. But want to avoid the +10 nonsense.
  21. michsnowfreak
    Bookmarked it! Looks great! Just one question, any idea why the CANSIPS seasonal looks quite different than on tropical tidbits?
  22. michsnowfreak
    Troll comments arent even worth a response. If there is a +10F month, I cant see how it's anything other than December. It wouldnt shock me knowing the history of strong Ninos, but it seems a low chance the way everything looks now. Regardless of actual departures, Id put money on December being the warmest month relative to avg, not just of the winter, but the entire cold season.
  23. michsnowfreak
    The Marquette example was just sort of a fun stat of what can and does happen in the far north. Certainly not a projection for anyone lol. For me, being in the Great Lakes region but outside the heavy snow belts, theres no question that "deep winter" needs average to below average temps to maintain a constant snowpack, thick lake ice, etc. Last year is an absolute textbook example. Well above avg snowcover and below avg temps gave us a severe winter despite actual snowfall finishing around 90% of average (was on pace for better but March fell totally flat). But actual total snowFALL is really dependent on how a season goes. It's a long window from November to April to get snowstorms, so its quite feasible to get average snowfall (40-45") with above to well above avg temps. Pretty much getting over 50", however, tends to require near normal (or below) temps.
  24. michsnowfreak
    Sometimes people confuse the discussion of wintry potential and temp departures as if the two have to go hand in hand. Discussion of above avg temps in the mean has never wavered in this thread, even when pointing out models that disagree (ie Cansips). A cool stat out of Marquette, MI. Their snowiest winter on record, 319.8" in 2001-02, was also their 3rd warmest winter on record.
  25. michsnowfreak
    I will say, all things considered and all the discussion in this thread....I am not as worried about this winter locally as I would a normal strong Nino. Of course, I still expect an overall subpar winter. Just not as subpar as strong Ninos can be. Its going to be fascinating (and likely at times frustrating) to see how the nino does affect overall weather patterns.
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