michsnowfreak

The southern third of DTX CWA gets plenty of warning criteria snowstorms. Since 2000, DTW has had 46 storms of 6"+ which includes 9 storms of 10"+. Yes only two of those were 12"+ but again, climate. Even areas that do get the occasional big dog (assuming its 18"+? Idk what the threshold is for that since it's a made up term)...its a very rare occurrence. Which is why im baffled at those few who follow a forum of weather enthusiasts when the ONLY thing that satisfies them is an EXTREMELY rare event. And Frogtown, I disagree. Being in the crosshairs actually gives us more chances. Again, if all your looking for in weather is a big dog, following actual weather is probably not a hobby for you. I like a good Miller B because those are often good snowstorms for SE MI (W MI not so much). Cutters can cut anywhere from Minneapolis to Buffalo so that's where individual storm track is crucial. And don't worry, there isn't a weenie around who doesnt get anxiety when a warning is issued lol.

NYC people...remind me again what this 4" snow record chase is? Longest without a calendar day 4" snowfall?

Thanks and interesting stuff! Since nearly this entire form resides in the eastern half of the country, its crazy to even think of this as being in the top warmest decembers for the CONUS. Detroit is -5.4° through Dec 25th. Im thinking we end up between -4 & -5°

There was some freezing rain here but just plain rain now. When the temp hovers near 32-33 instead of 31-32 makes a huge difference. The heaviest amounts were to my north. Really nothing but a gross day. Though I suppose its better than the 60 that was progged for today like 4 days ago.

Ive been a weather observer for 30 years now. We get plenty of all snow systems. The east coast actually gets more mix systems than we do. The pattern right now is super funky but once we flush this out im liking January overall.

It will be interesting to see how warm the conus ranking is this December, since it will have a large area of well below avg temps in the Great Lakes and northeast.

Merry Christmas all! No white Christmas here, though snow covered the ground the entire month through the 18th so there was plenty of white for holiday activities. The Christmas torch here was a fail, just annoyingly mild highs in the upper 30s yesterday & today. Ive never quite seen a forecast like the one tomorrow, with snow hitting nyc while colder climes get ice, rain, or mild temps. To say nyc has been overdue is an understatement so to the NYC observer, PLEASE measure 4 or whatever so we stop hearing how nyc used to be like the arctic and is now the tropics.

Euro weeklies keep average to below average temps for the Great Lakes the entire 5 week run (starting Dec 29). They change daily but looks like any prolonged abnormal warmth in the north is unlikely once we flush this crap out.

Merry Christmas everyone! No white Christmas here, although every outdoor Christmas event i attended here was white this season. Historical odds of a White Christmas for Detroit are around 45% (compare that to Groundhog day which is 70%).

Prime winter climo is mid January to mid February. Last 30 years, percentage of 1"+ snowdepth on Christmas is 40%. On groundhog day its 67%.

You staying all winter?

I actually didn't say I preferred it, you assumed that..it was noteworthy because the models suddenly chopped 20° off our highs overnight. But of course, your assumption was correct. The untimely melting of the snow makes for a bare Christmas, but the ground is frozen and lakes covered in ice and January and February are big winter rec months in Michigan...so why on earth would I want 60 over 40?

The models have all been struggling mightily.

After having 60s advertised for over a week either Christmas day or the day after, now we may not hit 40 lol.

DTW is at 12.9" which an exact tie for their 1936-37 futility mark. The average last snowfall is nearly 4 months away.

Yes. A La Nina is always more hostile in the south. Here in the north it looks fine. And even in the NE. By mid January temps are avg to below avg the rest of January as we get into the climatological coldest time of year. Again...euro has not done well....but still, im looking forward to what Jan/Feb may bring

I must point out the irony that today is the first official day of winter and the 7am snow depth has fallen to 0 at DTW for the first time since 7am November 29.

One of the rare times I agree with you. Its actually incredible how the Euro and its ensembles used to be "king" and how they have regressed so much.

Yesterday's weeklies were the warmest and they corrected cooler again today. The weeklies past 2 weeks, if they are correct, are like the old "broken clock is right twice a day" saying.

Yessir!

A canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter. Our region is definitely a better place to be than the east or especially south. But just be warned...there's likely plenty of excitement and disappointment ahead.

Also....a canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter.

Today is the first day with bare ground at Detroit since November 28th. It was the 5th coldest first half of December on record and still running over 8° below avg. As i recall the poster in question "predicted" a warm start to December. Unfortunately mother nature doesn't always sync herself with Bing Crosby. Remember 2022? It was a mild winter but a perfectly timed cold snap brought near record coverage of a white Christmas to the CONUS.

I agree. They change daily. When they stop flip flopping is when you can be more confident in a scenario.

First time all of December we saw bare ground today (though we got a fresh dusting), neighbors snowman appears to be on ozempic. Im liking the look of both euro and cfs weeklies for January. Only christmas week appears hostile, and wouldn't you know it, the core of the warmth here will be Dec 25-26. The insane temp departures to the south won't make it to the north for long, but it certainly looks like a mild holiday week.