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michsnowfreak

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  1. michsnowfreak
    Looking very dry as May turns to June.
  2. michsnowfreak
    It was a rough winter for the warm troll crowd. Many of them went into hibernation but like other things in nature they woke up with the warmth of spring. This will be the 5th of the past 7 months that most of Michigan saw negative temp departures, so of course youre going to hear nothing but March/April March/April...
  3. michsnowfreak
    Exactly. The mean winter temp departures were very impressive considering it was all Dec/Feb. January was a decent winter month.
  4. michsnowfreak
    Feb 2024 was NOT forecast to be a cold month in the midwest. https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_width_620_original_image/public/2024-02/Feb2024_tempoutlook.gif?itok=NFbaJvRE
  5. michsnowfreak
    He would never. Look at his post history, speaks for itself. We used to think he was a former banned troll poster (but hes not) based on many of his posts. Hasnt posted in over a year (absolutely no surprise he was absent this winter). But heres his week out prediction for January 2025 (a month his hometown Chicago finished -2.6F. Detroit was -2.8F).
  6. michsnowfreak
    Wow, I didnt see a torch 2-3 months out after 4 consecutive colder than average months here. Bravo! And I couldnt think of a month I could not care less about for warmth/cold than April. The important months were cold. Speaking of aging like milk, it will be wonderful to bump this "non winter" post. We dont have "non winters" in the Great Lakes. Mild? sure. Below avg snow? Sure. No winter? Not happening. And if you're banking on a strong Nino mild winter, then calling for a warm April is a big no.
  7. michsnowfreak
    Same here in the Great Lakes- strong ninos usually are bad news. But its all relative. Winters in the Lakes and interior northeast are much harsher than the coast. So winter is more often characterized as a whole versus the coast where one huge storm (or lackthereof) often makes or breaks the winter. So basically, I already know im going to have winter, its just highly likely I'll get less of it than usual. Whereas those along coast from NYC south to the midatlantic wont be surprised in April 2027 if they've just seen a 5" winter with no storms or a 35" winter thanks to a massive storm.
  8. michsnowfreak
    Yikes its pretty much the best ones here are the worst ones there and vice versa.
  9. michsnowfreak
    To clarify...I meant 1982-83 was the absolute shittiest winter of the bunch here. I grew up with my winter-hating dad saying he remembers how "great" that winter was. My mom (who loves winter) was pregnant with me and said she remembers feeling sick at Christmas Eve midnight mass because it was warm in her coat. It was pretty much on its way to being the least snowy winter on record, with only 9" falling thru March 19, but then two spring snowstorms (Mar 21 & Apr 17) added 11" so the winter finished at 20". No winter since has seen that little snowfall. Also, it still stands as the least snowy astrononomical winter on record with only 5.8" falling Dec 21-Mar 19. 1957-58 and 1965-66 at least had some cold, white stretches but were also absolutely atrocious snow years. In fact, both finished UNDER 20" of snowfall. I only give them the nod above 1982-83 since they had some cold & white stretches in winter. With the abysmal snowfall, as you would imagine, the snowdepth was only 2-3" during these wintry stretches 1997-98 and 2023-24 sucked overall, but were better than 1957-58, 1965-66, and 1982-83. 1972-73, 1987-88, 1991-92, 2015-16 all had some fun winter stretches and while none of them were great winters Id take any of them in a heartbeat over the others.
  10. michsnowfreak
    It was frosty in much of the lower peninsula too. The U.P. is a different world BUT I am convinced Bo literally lives in the best spot possible (at least the best spot thats inhabitable) for a winter lover.
  11. michsnowfreak
    1982-83 was hands down the worst winter of the strong nino bunch here.
  12. michsnowfreak
    Oh for sure. Its all relative. We still have winter, just not as much as we normally do. Ive been saying since March, and will only get more confident if el nino stays on the strong path, that next winter will see less cold and snowcover but a bigger storm. Multiple instances of good storms in strong Nino winters. Usually get a few of the very scenic paste jobs too.
  13. michsnowfreak
    You thinking wall to Wall torch or torch periods? Im not sure on wall to wall. If I had to rate the strong nino winters since 1972 from most to least desirable, I assume it ranks different than yours. 1991-92 1987-88 1972-73 2015-16 1997-98 & 2023-24 (tie) 1982-83
  14. michsnowfreak
    Solid wind with the squall line and 0.75" rain.
  15. michsnowfreak
    I wasn't implying you said that. I was just making a very generalized statement (using the assumption that stronger = worse). We all know that 2009-10 was a weird ass winter. Bare ground in Maine with feet of snow in the Mid-Atlantic. I already have a feeling for the type of winter it'll be here, but ill wait til fall to see if it changes. Im thinking one real shitty warm month. Multiple stretches of winter weather the rest of the time but no sustaining like the past 2. Another wildcard is the traditional el nino = dry can actually really be a fail during strong ninos with some surprisingly wet results (chuck pointed this out).
  16. michsnowfreak
    A few warm days in any given May are normal. The monthly departure is still colder than avg. Looks like all pre-stromg nino Mays had a max in the mid to upper 80s here.
  17. michsnowfreak
    Actually I see it as the opposite. There were a few very disappointed with how last winter turned out cold/wintry. Didn't sit well with them at all so with a big nino coming and better odds for a milder winter, the excitement cant be contained. We will still get winter regardless, but if you want the mild strong el nino pattern, you can say goodbye to any winter sun. No winters are grayer in the already gray Great Lakes than mild nino ones.
  18. michsnowfreak
    I would never count on a "good" winter in a strong nino. But I also wouldn't just assume that the stronger the nino the worse the winter will be. There are other pieces of the puzzle besides enso.
  19. michsnowfreak
    They dig and dig to find this stuff lol.
  20. michsnowfreak
    2015-16 had multiple wintry bouts outside the torch December. I feel like for here, a strong (or super) nino is going to have 1 horrendous month and the rest of the time will have multiple chances that make or break how bad (or good) the winter is. Its different in the east coast where it seems going on getting (or not getting) one massive storm will be the story of a strong nino winter.
  21. michsnowfreak
    As terrible as '23-24 was, January was a good month here. Just the rest of that winter absolutely sucked. And the March thing is wild lately....November has been more wintry than March of late.
  22. michsnowfreak
    Mar & Apr were warm doninated...the rest came dominated here. DTW monthly departures- Nov: -0.4 Dec: -3.6 Jan: -5.2 Feb: -0.2 Mar: +4.9 Apr: +5.2 May: -5.4
  23. michsnowfreak
    Yeah there's some interesting stuff in the dataset. I believe the warm winter of 1949-50 was a strong Nina.
  24. michsnowfreak
    I was only referring to the comment about 2013-14...I said it in spring 2014 and ill say it to the end...there will never be another 2013-14. Goes far beyond just being the snowiest winter on record. A retired local climatologist did a writeup at the time how it was the most severe winter on record and all the things that made it that. Not repeating that winter has nothing to do with warmer globe or anything like that. It was a winter that defied local climo. As for 2015-16 thru 2024-25, ive discussed it several times as well as how it differed from the warmth of the east. Here it was a product of 5 very mild winters (15-16, 16-17, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24) and the rest around avg (+/- a minimal amt) whereas the east was consistent mild each year. I will say though that 2025-26 was solidly colder than avg. Its colder than the longterm avg and its colder than the coldest 30-year normal in the entire period of record. The departure would be even more impressive if not for a sharp rebound the 2nd half of Feb. Lastly, what has intrigued me more than anything is how the past several decades, milder winters have less correlation to low snowfall (not just les but synoptic too) than they used to. Its more of a crapshoot now.
  25. michsnowfreak
    Agree. The physics of meteorology are fascinating and often completely lost in these threads by some.
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