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michsnowfreak

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Everything posted by michsnowfreak

  1. michsnowfreak
    Honestly, 2015-16 was fine outside of December imo
  2. michsnowfreak
    No, its the Wyandotte Museum. But I love Greenfield Village!
  3. michsnowfreak
    A sweltering summer night seemed like a good time for a comparison pic. July 1/January 25
  4. michsnowfreak
    Wow. Max heat index at DTW was 104.
  5. michsnowfreak
    97 at DTW today. No record, but the hottest temp since 2019.
  6. michsnowfreak
    I know my own climate very well, but I have also learned a decent amount about the east/midatlantic after being on weather boards for 2+ decades. Warm/cold/etc are always very relative, subjective terms. It absolutely will snow here in November & December. My hunch is for above avg snow in Nov & below avg in Dec, but thats just my hunch (based on strong Nino history & an odd frequency of this occurring in even non-Nino years recently). Id lean on an avg to cold November and a mild December, but even if its warm both months, the transition to winter in the Great Lakes from Oct to Nov is a sharp one, and is very apparent even in the warmest years. Meanwhile, on the east coast/midatlantic, early season snow is never a strong bet, even in a cold pattern. So in a more hostile strong Nino pattern, bad odds just got worse. So while its not impossible, dont count on much pre-Christmas snow. January-February is when the Great Lakes region is often thrust into deep winter, so you have options ranging from that to a warmer, less favorable outcome which would actually yield a good chance for dynamic, powerful wet snowstorms. This is the time of year when literally everything has to go wrong to not see much winter. Meanwhile in the east, Jan/Feb is when climo hits its sweetspot. Pair this with a time when the overall pattern becomes more wintry for much of the nation following the assumed mild December, and the tendancy/STJ in strong Ninos for strong storms, and this is when you can be on high alert for possible huge storms.
  7. michsnowfreak
    Low at DTW 78 this morning. The hot, humid final day of June took the monthly departure from -0.1F to 0.4F at DTW. June was a very average month in the southern Great Lakes in the mean, with most locations finishing between -0.5F & +0.5F, however the last day added around a half degree departure for most.
  8. michsnowfreak
    Speaking of cansips. Its July 1st update maintains a cold look centered in the Great Lakes despite the nino strength. January is the coldest month relative to average. It warmed some in December.
  9. michsnowfreak
    The irony
  10. michsnowfreak
    Actually. Strong ninos often have cool months in the Fall. And we've already had several cool months this year, so no, i dont think every month the rest of the year will be warmer than avg.
  11. michsnowfreak
    Hes an old friend under a new name, if you know what i mean. For not posting much, its always the same thing every time.
  12. michsnowfreak
    2026 already happened and was a cold white winter. But welcome to the thread and happy trolling!
  13. michsnowfreak
    Not weird at all. In fact, done completely intentionally.
  14. michsnowfreak
    Do you have any AC?
  15. michsnowfreak
    Detroit is at -0.1F on the last day of the month so with the heat it will end up a few tenths of a degree above avg. Basically, a "normal" June anyway you slice it (generally +/- 0.5F is often considered "normal" by many). For me personally it has been a cool and very enjoyable June, due to the timing of my Alaska trip coinciding with our warmth early in the month and then my return coming with 2 weeks of below avg temps.
  16. michsnowfreak
    I could be wrong, but I believe a strong El Nino is traditionally better compared to avg for Colorado than it is in the east. Plus of course, we know how Denver can rack up September and May snow with 70F in January . While measurable snow is normal here in the Detroit area from November thru April, its a more traditional curve, with the snowiest month being January followed closely by February (each month over 12"), with both November and April each averaging just under 2". A common trend seen in strong El Ninos is well ABOVE avg snowfall in November, followed by below avg snow in December. Once you get to January results get more mixed.
  17. michsnowfreak
    Good point. Its also typical to see very early and late season snows
  18. michsnowfreak
    I haven't seen anyone here forecast a cold winter. In fact, everyone expects a milder than avg mean. However, it has been discussed how there still remain plenty of opportunity for a big east coast storm, and for those of us further north multiple wintry opportunities exist in mild winters. Hes hoping for the warmest/least snowy outcome possible so he can enjoy weenie tears, but thats something thats really just wish casting.
  19. michsnowfreak
    Did they actually say this though? I dont recall anyone going full throttle "months of deep winter" in these years. Jan-early Mar 2016 is actually exactly what I would hope for in a strong nino. Multiple wintry threats here and some good cold snaps despite an overall warmer than normal mean. I searched online multiple different ways and could find nothing from JB from January 1998. Yes, he was at accuweather back then, but I dont think he had much of a follower base that long ago. You are not wrong in assuming JB most likely always goes cold, but again, its the exact same as you going warm. Im sure JB was going cold in 1997-98, 2001-02, 2011-12 just as Im sure you went warm in 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15.
  20. michsnowfreak
    I didnt say it was typical. Buckeye did lol. I said we were due for a legit heatwave. This will seem even worse than 2012 because that was a wall to wall hot summer. This has not been. 95F+ days per decade: 1880s- 7 1890s- 16 1900s- 3 1910s- 21 1920s- 12 1930s- 54 1940s- 41 1950s- 36 1960s- 8 1970s- 23 1980s- 23 1990s- 16 2000s- 14 2010s- 31 2020s- 8
  21. michsnowfreak
    We're unfortunately due for a legit heatwave. We dont get them like we did decades ago when we would frequently multiple per summer. These days we run up departures with warm summer nights. Hopefully its a one and done deal after this week. Heat looks transient.
  22. michsnowfreak
    Summers preceding El Ninos are typically comfortable (in the mean). As this June has been. The implying that it doesn't get hot is ridiculous. Were actually due for a legit heatwave.its gonna be hot and humid, and likely transient.
  23. michsnowfreak
    Literally the last 2 weeks has been colder than average every day here.
  24. michsnowfreak
    Yes 1875-76 was actually a very mild winter here, coming off the record cold year of 1875. Always a bit ironic here- 1875 is by far the coldest year on record, yet the last day of the year, Dec 31, still holds 1875 as the record high at 65°.
  25. michsnowfreak
    I went about 3 weeks without feeling 80° (Alaska trip then prolonged cooler than avg here). Its going to feel unbearable. Not that ill be out in it, but still.
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