pasnownut

1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

Radar looks fine to me.  Enjoy the snow everyone!

Just got to office.  24-25 car thermo w/ a light to almost mod snow on way in.

Etown already has their 1" threshold met.  Lets tack a few more on today.

17 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I had stated that ratios would be 20:1 and many did not believe.

High ratio stuff coming.


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I didnt think 20:1 was legit, but that is why I'm a weenie and not a red tagger.  12-15:1 sounded reasonable going in.  

snow started right around 5, which is when mesos have been suggesting for a day now.  

Steady light snow and TGIF.  Its a good day.  Enjoy all.

28 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

I, too, am surprised how quickly the airmass has modified today under generally cloudy skies.  Low in Lebanon overnight before the clouds dipped to 7° and all morning was in the teens but now at 32°.  

WAA ahead of next system is the culprit and why some parts of state were seeing flakes this am. 

Been showing up on mesos for a while now.  

25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Good point. I still think we'd lose a fair amount of what we have though. There was melting yesterday under full sun and much colder temps with the frozen tundra. 

and if anyone thinks that ground isnt frozen, come take a snowmobile ride with me.

Need fillings replaced in all my teeth from last night.  Im telling ya, it was frozen tundra...like rock. 

Im just gonna use an easy analogy to further my point.....hockey rink

Ok, back to weather and Euro snow maps on deck

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Exactly - without the clouds, the snow would be waving bye bye. 

You do have frozen ground underneath, so I'd take that bet.  That's something we've not had in well.....like.....

forever  

and FWIW, I am gaining more trust in GFS Op, as its been pretty good IMO of late.

That said, next weeks warmup will include 2 additional mixed/snow events for northers.  Go look at snow map (I look for frozen potential, not for snow numbers in situ's like this).  

Not sure I trust it that much, but stoudt HPs show up at the right time in eastern Canada to help w/ CAD in CTP.

and fwiw, it woudnt surprise if we dry up a bit at HH or 0z's.  It happens and is something I'm personally waiting for.  

As I've already ovestated....snow on snow.  I'm good.  Stickin w/ my guess of 2-4 and will hope for coastal pop to be delayed for nice crowd pleasing light event tomorrow.  

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I've mentioned before but I really like what I've seen with the new RRFS model since its release.  I just wish we didn't have to wait so damn long for the model output after its timestamp (12z is still running ha).  Anyway, here is its total Kuch snowfall map for the event, FWIW....

 

I'm enacting weenie rule #3 and tossing merely on the grounds that i don't like what it shows.

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nams fairly similar to it.

coastal sounds like its the only real rug tugger for us.  I'm hoping for SLP in WVA to hold together as long as possible (based on progressive flow aloft and lack of trough in east, but thats wishcasting.  Coastal is largely a miss for most...even us far easters in CTP land

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looking at the Icon at 120hrs, I wonder if that rain on Tuesday may start as some sort of frozen on this run or future runs. It's building a 1040 High into Quebec.

Disco already mentions this...albeit brief, that 1047hp might cause a pause in the warm that will eventually ensue.

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nws just bumped me back up to 2-4". Lol

you speak...

they listen

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Snow aloft over me. That renegade area of snow ahead of the main course is more expansive than modeling.

WAA so often does this.  Even if some is virga, still gets the juices flowin 

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey guys. Thought I’d stop by and provide my forecast for the coming event. Looks like PA is solidly in my Zone D with a small piece in the Catoctins. Liking 3-5” for much of the subforum. Min of 2” and max of 7” in the highest elevations if everything broke right. Think 3-5” is a good call for the time being. Let’s freshen up this snow! 

Thanks for sharing bud.  Looks like you dropped a dookie on Adams County line.  lol

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

9 was my low. 

I forgot to look, but when my wife went out to start her car, and came in, I asked "is it cold"....

Her reply....."this is bullshit".

Only reading I got for ya this morning.  

7 minutes ago, paweather said:

JB and DT both are in the 4-6, 4-8" side of us. 

but to bubbles point, temps are cold, but not THAT cold.  At height of storm (ish), here are 700s.  Not supportive of 20:1 IMO.  12-14 as he suggested is more reasonable.  

Edit: Norther westers may get backside fluff factor, but not round CTP IMO.

4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Good to see that. Allows a little buffer if it comes north at last minute.


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smart minds think alike and was literally what I thought when I read that. 

4 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

read this morning, weather concerns again for the KC/Bills game this weekend 

Was thinking about that the other day.  Being that its a sunday game and flow is outta NW, Buffalo proper would just be diggin out, and not snowin

5 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

9 in the village this morning. I could see us squeezing out 5" on this for Friday

Nice to see you jumping right back in w/ a cannonball.....

Good to see you back bro. 

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I wish I  hadn't wrenched my back on Monday shoveling snow.

I'll bring the snowmobile straight down rt 30 with shovel bungie corded to back seat.  I'll take care of ya old man. 

Hope you feel better soon. 

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

We are getting Named for sure.

It really is a nice run and nice to see dryslot worries diminish as coastal takes over.  Just a nice clean handoff of sorts. Prob helps that its a 1006mb SLP and not 980's as that would dryslot the hell outta us me thinks.

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

From JB this morning: The clipper could still bomb out near the coast Friday night, but it looks like a large area of 20:1 ratio snows from the northern Plains to the M-Atlantic. It is going to be followed by the coldest weather of the winter for the East, but not the Plains, as they will start to warm

20:1  sheesh.  That MIGHT be a tad much me thinks...but if so, thats what ya call snow bomb

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Indeed it is.  The type of ramp-up you love to see on the Mesos inside of 24 hours.

And it happens plenty.  This is just a good reminder that as I semi jokingly called it model watching before bed last night, it is easy to sometimes get lost in the trees while looking for the forest...if ya know what I mean.

Not for a second was I thumping my chest....just sitting back and watching things evolve without getttin too whacked out between 1-3 vs 2-4".  Something is gonna happen and that has not changed for days.  Models are doing what they often do...thats all I'm sayin.  None of us here are good enough to fret about the details (except red taggers).

Its been fun to watch evolve and let the chips fall where they may.    

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

3-5" for the central and Southern LSV.  Close or under 3" for some of the North LSV and MSV as well as just to the West of the LSV. 

 

Crowd pleaser right there.  

I'll even approve for @Atomixwxon his behalf while he's still on "vacation".

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The odd part is that all the new runs have me at 3-4". Yesterday I said the Nws forecast of 2-4" was too high and 1-3" was more likely. So when I saw the runs overnight, I  figured they were right. Then I  check the forecast and they cut it back. Makes little sense. I'm starting to think somebody from CTP driving thru Hanover stopped at the Starlight and got a lousy meal, so now they're getting even.

ebbs and flows of models still gets us every time.  Ya'd think our old asses would know better...and just when we think we do...

Thats the fun of being a bunch of weenies....we dont get paid (and dont need to act like we get paid) to know better.  We can just chat and have fun with it. (well thats how I feel anyway).