Jump to content

pasnownut

Members
  • Posts

    9,002
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by pasnownut

  1. 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    Let’s hope the GFS gets some company at 12z.

    Yeah, its on an island right now, but man that 6z snow map was one like we've not seen in a while....

    Gotta love digital snow.  

    IF the GFS has a clue, its gonna be a nice little run in the next couple weeks.  Pattern evolution says why not, so here's to hopin.

  2. 1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

    I looked at everything before coming in here and knew Bliz would be busy. Buckle up my friend, you've got a lot of work ahead of you this week and hopefully beyond!

    Yeah, it looks like we are about the head into some fun times pattern and trackin wise.  of course we can find ways to fail....but could be a fun period.

     

  3. 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:


     

     


    Gooood

    Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
     

     

    I find it amusing that he suggests possible SSW event/lag time and what it may mean to LR guidance, but still stands firm on early spring (which would be after said voodo event)?  IF we were to get said SSW event, that might throw a small or large wrench into his call for early spring. 

    Mind you, like Mitch, I have always been intrigued by SSW events and hope this one works, as no matter when spring comes, we'd have a notable stretch of winter beforehand and if said event unfolds, the lag time and duration are really hard to pin down. 

  4. 32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

    I think we're going to be in a dry period for an extended period, short of clippers, after next week so I really hope it can work out for all.

    As I've been casually watching the evolution, that's been in the back of my mind (and some others as well).  Trough axis is an important feature along with the cold.  Of late, and IMO its been a tad east on the medium range looks, and lacking latitude in the east.  I dare say a tad of WAR could help, but thats a dangerous wish to ask for.  Soon enough wavelenghts will start to change as spring emerges, and if we could hold this look for a while, who knows....but thats getting pretty far ahead of what lies in front of us. 

    Really just shows how difficult it can be to get a really GOOD look pattern wise.  So so many ways to just miss.  Not that we didnt know that, but it's its so true.  

    • Like 1
  5. 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

    6z Eps look flatter, hence better, for next week imho. 

    As we enter the better period, gonna watch the trough axis and hope that we get just enough bend for them to come up and not slide right.  Stoudt NAO could be too much of a good thing.  Just something I'm keepin an eye on.

     

  6. 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    Good point, lots of upside potential, but the answer will probably be in between. 
    Either way, we should have lots of tracking in our future…wins & losses in our backyards are to be determined during the next several weeks.

    FWIW, I'm finally starting to believe we are about to get into some fun, or at least trackin it.  You've been all over it, and I hope we get the goods.  Seeing overnight and morning GFS keeps hope alive and I give the GFS credit for medium range as its sniffed out a few that have verified at some degree or another, so I'm dipping my toes back into the weather water as it looks like after this week, we may be having some chances.  Just hoping we don't go straight to suppression depression, as while we have a longwave trought getting established, the southern slider idea has some merit in the things to worry about dept. ENS guidance as you suggest, appears to keep cold closer to us and looks to be rather stable.  I'll take that as a win, as we've not seen a pattern "lock in", and for now the latter 1/2 of ens guidance shows this.

     

    • Like 1
  7. 10 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

    Still some nice snow up in elk county at 2300'

    Pics were taken yesterday 1-31-24

    20240131_131819.jpg

    20240131_131755.jpg

    Yeah there's snow in the north country, but not much.  For those that enjoy it, no matter how much, a couple hour drive would get you some.  I was going to take sleds up for a rip around on top, but I'm old enough to not feel pressed to go in less than ideal conditions.  Hopefully in 2 weeks there will be better conditions.  Thankful I have the harley and sxs for my motor fix(s).

     

  8. 20 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    That's what I thought. It's hard to understand negativity after two weeks where I believe everybody cashed-in? Did anybody get shafted? I don't know where my area stands for the year, N, AN, or BN for snow, and a lot of that is because I'm still relatively new to the area, but I'd have to grade winter here so far as a B, with hopes for another brief stretch late February to top things off, but it seems like others have conceded.

    Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
     

    Hope your vacation was a good one.  Nice to see you back.

    I'm just going to say that if I didn't look at weather maps to the degree that I do, I'd say that its been a HELL of a lot better than last year. 

    While I love the big dogs, the realist in me is happy for what we've had in the last 2 weeks, and it feels normal"ish" around here.  Northern Pa has been MUCH better than last year.  I'm ok w/ where we are so far and like you hope Feb delivers. 

     

    and this is my glass half full stance, and I do realize places like Tug and NE states are struggling a bit.  Overall...still better than last year. 

    • Like 2
  9. 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

    Rain has officially flipped to snow at my buddy’s cabin at 1900’ in Tioga Co. Thinking they get a nice 3-6”. Paging @pasnownut

    Been snowing up there for the last couple hours.  No mucho on the cams, but it is snowing.  Check out http://skisawmill.com/webcam/ for live stream.  

    If we get 3-6 up there, I'd be giddy.  Me thinks 1-2 w/ 3" lollipops.  Hoping the colder looks on Ops hold for this week and that we can luck into something.  Snowmobiles are just sitting in my sloppy backyard right now....once again waiting.  Heck, Tug still has rideable snow, but looks sad right now.  May be headed up there soon if we dont get the good at cabin.

     

    • Like 1
  10. 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

    48 with light rain falling. An additional .18” of rain, bringing the two-day total to .38”. 

    perfect snowpack decimation weather.  At least it lasted till mid week as we thought it would.  Boy did it go fast starting Wed night.

     

    • Like 1
  11. 3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

    It's too warm to use 10:1 Bliz. I think Kuchera is closer to reality, which is more snow tv than anything. 6z Gfs drops a bomb over mby. Lol Yeah...right. :(

    IF we had a decent antecedent cold, I'd be latchin onto the snow train.....but we don't.  Miller B's w/ warm out ahead, just dont work well around here.  

    No matter what the models show leading up, we WONT have it.  Said it yesterday and I'm holding onto it.  Elevation event is where the snow will be best.  Somerset to Hazleton and surrounding locals in CTP and North country as well.

    What I am happy to see, is next weeks colder looks here in NE and as others have suggested, maybe we can get clipped or coastal next weekend.

    Happy Friday all.

     

     

       

    • Like 1
  12. Nooner GooFuS livin up to its name.

    Not sure that I've ever seen an alberta clipper go due SE....right off the right side of the map.

    and furthermore the 500's beyond that are part of the wonky evolutions I mentioned a few days back.

    a few days later a cutter to Nebraska that retros to Southern Colorado.  Just not somethin we se often/ever.

     

  13. 33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    The full 6z GFS looks loaded with opportunities to score over the next 2 weeks.

    If that look holds, we should have chances.

    IF one believes....yeah, it did look good, but as i've always suggested, its gotta fit the pattern, and to me...I smell something foul..

     

  14. 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

    6z Euro is basically rain for all despite some mix or snow in higher elevations. It even pulls the plug on high totals in NE.

    Thats what makes more sense based on pattern.  I like to see the blocking, but its a tad north IMO.  

    Thermally, this panel seals the casket for me. 

    gfs_T850_neus_13.png

    12hrs later...still cookin

    gfs_T850_neus_15.png

  15. 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

    I'll take the 6z Gfs and call it a month.

    6z Nam looks interesting, but more for my northern...friends? Lol

    upcoming weekend event has been a wonky evolution (transfer wise).  Once that gets sorted out a bit better, maybe some get luck and freshen up.  While I'll concede to the transfer, blocking up north has me scratchin my noggin as to why this will happen as depicted.  also thermally, 700's are okish, but 850's are really lagging for se 1/3 or state.  I wanna buy what its selling, but I'll hold for now.  

    FWIW 6z nam came around a bit and is notably SE of 0z.  

    I'll keep watchin...got nothin better to do while its raining.  

×
×
  • Create New...