pasnownut

at 102 1007mb vs 1003 at 6z.  Precip shield responded and NW quad was not getting r done.  Still ok, but not what we wanted to see.  

trough to pos tilted and she gets 2pts for escape.  

and a tinge better w/ norther precip field at 90.

Yes, I'm still here.  This is important shit.  To heck w/ clients 

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon not heavy on the dark blues but there are great ratios with that look.

Its coming around and I'm fine w/ where its at.  Notably SLP pops in central NC (which is about 200-250 miles NW of 6z. 

Gut says GFS nooner is gonna be good.

Just now, Porsche said:

Ouch, I've seen this too many times, I just really hope the other models don't slowly move towards them.  I think the next 24 hours will be critical especially once the current storm moves out tonight.  Love seeing all other models on board, but need to see EURO move towards them soon.

As I just stated in last post, I'm riding the GFS (due to decent Op run consistency from D7 and in.  Its done pretty well wrt showing storm potential and while its waivered some (as they do), its never really "lost" it.  

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

NE thread just posted 6z Eps further SE up there.

Had to think abt this and where it applies....

20 minutes ago, paweather said:

Thanks all for showing the good runs getting a little nervous last night. 

Glad to see things coming back around.  Truth is GFS has never "lost" the storm, and this year has been decent to follow.  Like I suggested yesterday, we just want most (and hopefully Euro soon) to have the storm.

One thing I'm hopeful for (and think is starting to get sorted out on morning runs) is the amount of different pieces of energy and which one becomes our storm.  GFS and CMC are much cleaner presentation at 6z, and ICON is a hybrid B and shows a secondary pop at 108 (I think Bubbler was chatting about it). 

Personally not a fan of B's - redevelopers, even if LSV is in the jackpot (right now).  Subtle timing changes and too often our storm goes poof for MBY.

I'll take 6z GFS and CMC and sign right now...no matter the upside (and like I said yesterday - watch energy on backside for that sharpening of the trough.  The more it dives in, the more neg tilt and that could really run up some better numbers for many.)

Another part that gets me and likely a bunch of us giddy, is that whatever falls, aint goin nowhere for a while.  Been a LONGG time coming to see that.

Happy Friday gang.  I'm busy today so I look forward to the various PBP's and expect Bubbles/Mitch/ and toothless Blizz to be on point as I'll be reading from afar.

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Anyone else think some of the snows being depicted over the last few days for the monday/tuesday period have almost an anafrontal look about them?  Speaking of prior to the coastal really getting going.

IMO its more of a warm air advection kinda deal out in front of the main show.  

Something to watch (for a bigger boom) is the backside ULL and how it interacts.  12z shows a little better dive in on the backside, and tugs the SLP closer to the coast.  IF that happens a bit more, it'll help to keep SLP closer and should help thermally to add some more sicks of white dynamite to our precious storm.  Look at the ULL in Illinois.  IF we can get that to dive in, the trough could go a tad more neg, and up she comes. 

CMC sorta shows where my brain is at WRT to this.  TTFN

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

GFS and Canadian look great and Icon is fine.  Optimism cautiously growing. 

Just took a look at Kanook model before heading out and yeah....nice signal showing for next week.  

Happy Day all.

and next panel at 126...a small kaboom was heard in SE Pa. SLP notably closer to coast. Very nice.

See you HH or tonight.  Got some selling to do.  

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Believe me, you'll find no money in those panels.

I think Gfs will be better than 6z

out to 120you are correct bud.  SLP about 100-150 W of 6z and precip shields nicely into PA.  I dont need to see more.  Signal holds.  Onward.

Just now, mitchnick said:

Believe me, you'll find no money in those panels.

I think Gfs will be better than 6z

I look at Icon for fun and consensus only.  Signal remains....thats enough for me.

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Somebody forgot to tell the Icon there's supppsed to be a storm next week.

mine skips over money panels between 105-126 but extrapolated....it wasnt terrible.   Still too far out to worry much.  Signal for something remains. 

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Green Bay needs to figure out how to win the time of possession game in a big way if they want a chance - probably only chance you have to win the game of silence of the lamb. 

Any thoughts for my Eagles.....

j/k...sorta maybe

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Who would ever look at those maps? 

300+'rs were recently posted when showing warmth....so what the hell....send it. 

Maybe I'll take a muscle relaxer with a strong cocktail before viewing.  

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I am getting my wisdom teeth pulled later this morning.

I apologize in advance if I post anything incoherent over the next couple of days!

we fully expect some wonky ass drug induced snow maps.  

Also, for those of us w/ brown back yards, many central/northers have snowpack remaining from prior events, and so long as they survive tomorrow, will likely be on the way to a several week period with snow OTG. 

IF you dont have snow, but need a white gold fix, head N or W and enjoy winters splendor.  Gas wont be back to $5/gal till after the election.  Enjoy.

42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If anyone needs a good snow map fix this morning, check out the snow total on the 6z GFS through the end of the 16 days,

Amounts aside, it just screams of potential regardless of the final exact total that this period will hold for us.

For extra fun, check out the Kuchera total…

If one parses over most majors, it shouldnt be hard to see that the upcoming couple weeks that has been supported by ENS guidance is starting to have a nice look to it (pattern wise).  Win, lose or draw, several chances are showing.  Next Tues/Friday should be first 2 and week beyond....could be more, but I'm not wasting any energy beyond next week.  

As you stated, should be a fun week ahead.  

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Saw that. Exactly what we need to see. Driving so can't look at anything much.

Is it a bus?  

Looking at 12z GFS for early next week,  I'm gonna just say....right where we want it. 

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hate to say it, but the 6z Icon came west too with the cold boundary.  Idk, just thinking we're kidding ourselves to think that this thing won't end up going into the lakes, or at least far enough inland for us to fail again. Seasonal trends are a biatch when they're againt you, and it goes without saying they are against us. If we keep getting ticks west today, it's hard to think otherwise imho.

If we see things changing for the colder, we might have a chance.

Regarding your post about the ICON, look at 540's between 6z and nooner.  Jogged S by about 3 states.  IMO its a little too far out to parse over details, and while you might not like to look at 500's, thats what drives the bus, so IMO we need to "get that right" before diving too deep into surface maps.  

6z

nooner

For those that cant tell what a good look is, I'll post it for you.

300+ hr maps should be banned from weenie view, no matter how good or bad they look IMO. Hell of late 240 is really pressing the envelope.

32 minutes ago, Porsche said:

 

Just underwhelmed imho compared to the hype.  Back to tracking rain this Friday and maybe snow next week.

Agreed.  Looks like we have 1 more rainer to get through before legit winter chances start to show.  Hoping this period holds for more than a couple weeks, but we'll worry about that hopefully after a few chances at snow. 

8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

One thing I'm keeping an eye on that looks to be almost a given at this point is the lake effect machine really getting ramped up in the wake of Friday's system.  Could make for a very interesting game between the Bills and Steelers Sunday afternoon.

Both todays and this weekends event have some fetch that'll likely freshen whatever is left of the snowpack for norther wester LES folks.  Looks like a 24 to 36 hr window tomorrow into thursday and then sundayish.  

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Uncanny how this looks JUST like the stupid maps from this past weekend...

  

Was thinking the same. Hoping colder air is deeper so you n I worry less. 

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

On a side note, while working outside yesterday. I observed 2 big flocks of geese headed south. 

Lotsa migrant flocks mixed in w/ resident right now.  Nephew invited me to waterfowl w/ him this weekend.  Told him it may be a tad moist for that as we may need a boat for his fields.