pasnownut

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

@Ralph Wiggum posted this in the Philly thread this morning. It is nice to see the good looks on the ensembles for late December starting to show a potential discrete Winter storm chance.

“Larger window opening up on the ens the last week of Dec as the PAC side amplifies with a transient +PNA and -EPO ridge and a vigorous shortwave slides across the SE.”

Op gfs hinting at something also.

 

The word transient is the only problem I have with above...hehe

2 hours ago, Voyager said:

Hope y'all don't mind me here. I'm 2,300 miles away, but I've been a contributor for years, and will likely return once my commitment to my mom ends.

I'm not a troll, but I do like funnin with you guys sometimes with my warmanista tendencies... 

Of course you are "one of us".  Everyone knows your situ...

when you poke warm fun, its in fun and not to troll...big diff. (and if it's not in fun....you've been warned .)

When is my shipment of snow coming......?

12 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I didn't expect to find some real snow leftover from Monday .

saw some leftover snow on my way back from Selinsgrove/Shamokin Dam.  Actually close to Elysburg (Bear Gap) had nice coating remaining in protected areas.  

13 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

If YBY doesn't receive EAS alerts from State College, PA, you have about as much business posting to this forum as I have of posting to Penthouse forum.
 

While I'm one of a few SE'rs in the group, geographically speaking regarding Chescos involvment in our convo, he is 28 miles from my door.  KPit is 242 miles from same door.

For the record, weather/forecasts for his area are often the same as many in our SE portion of the LSV'rs, so I'll look at his info any day as it aligns w/ quite a few of us climatologically.  

I've no problem when ANYONE comes in to chat it up w/ us....dont care where you reside....BUT if your coming to troll, thats a problem...... no matter where you reside. 

12 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Perhaps he will - that won't stop me from being respectful. I can control me, my words, my actions and no one else's. 

I gave them a similar lecture last year and you see where we are.  I wish you luck, but I know where I'm placing my bets.  Like you I try to see all of it, as its a community forum, but it's no longer funny/amusing, and the longer it goes on, the worse it will get.  Enough have tired of it.  

Bubbler is correct, this storm sure is tapping into some cold.  Noted below on left entrance region of SLP.  Post storm is gonna be cold for sure.

If only it could have stayed off shore, and not over KPIT, we'd be looking at potentiall a much better event for CTP.  Without NAO/AO help, there is little reason for this not to cut as the return flow of the departing HP from this weekend will flood/ruin our precious thermals pre storm. 

Keep the storms coming and a few tweaks up north and maybe just maybe we'll get ours in a couple weeks.  

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

If we only had cold air...

Can you imagine the level of excitement in here? That's the kind of map that those of us, especially in eastern PA pine for and drool over.

- NAO or -AO and we'd be going bonkers in here.  It'd b a parade of storms w/ the active STJ.  Maybe soon bud....maybe soon.

23 on car thermo on way into office.  Was nipply out.  I like nipply.

Looking at tellies, AO/NAO still look to head back down twds neutral and PNA heads slightly pos as we head towards Christmas.

MJO still a wild card, and a large one IMO. 

Above signals should support a better/more workable pattern, but nothing overwhelmingly great as of now.  Better may just be good enough.  Just happy to see signals staying on track and not gong the other way. 

Happy pre Friday all.  

44 minutes ago, canderson said:

“No chance of precip today and warm”. It rained all day and was 44 and windy.  
 

They have no idea what to forecast. It’s fascinating. 

Thats funny as hell.  Enjoy the rest of your trip.

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

I'm trying my fuckin best, okay?

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

In your own "unique" way....you're doing just fine pal.

Truth told, I'd LOVE to see you doing the weather for the Brits....

HP anchored over WVA is our saving grace from notably warmer temps here (for the next 48hrs anyway).  As soon as it scoots, it takes the cold w/ it when winds turn SW

. 

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sw'ly flow ahead of the front killed any chance at an inversion. Closest Wunderground site to me only made it to 28.6.

I saw 27 on car thermo on way into office at 7am #winning :).

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gefs look alot like the other 2 fwiw.

we just need the good 384hr maps to be showing at sub 240.  Hoping that happens in the next week.  

9 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully the MJO progression into the null phase & then emerging into weak phase 7 & 8 will help the pattern to improve by the end of the month.

I hope the emergence into 8 continues due West...right off the chart.  Low amp might not be enough help if AO/NAO are only slightly in our favor as tellies suggest twds Christmas week n beyond.  Regardless, signals are starting to look somewhat better, and lets hope that trend continues. 

Looking at the overnighers, the 0z GFS surface maps look more reasonable as to potential evolution for the 12/22 event.  As I stated previously, the lack of cold in the eastern NH, is really throwing a big wrench into what could be a formidable event.  I'm not trying to be a debbie, and yes, due to climo, there could be some surprises, as the storm has the ability to bring down/manufacture some/enough cold for some surprises.  Long n short, its just not that cold in eastern canada, and as depicted, we'd need that.

Again, I hope I'm wrong and look forward to all of you proving it. 

Like bubbles suggests, that is the fun for many of us.  Trying to figure this stuff out.  

This one is rather telling IMO.  Mind you its just a run, but sorta aligns w/ ens maps at 500mb, and thermally its just a hot enough mess.  

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. Have to chalk up Euro run as a wee bit off. Only model that keeps everything, rain included, offshore due to pressing cold front from Canada. 

gfs had the southern slider kinda look IMO.  Regardless (cause it IS a word to me)...its a wonky evolution (based on 500's), but hey, I'll play along.  

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Admittedly, at first glance it may seem like a long shot with 1 system coming through with a trailing trough that amplifies thanks to a strong 1st system. Otoh, that's sorta what brought us snow yesterday with a front/trough that moved through and trailing northern stream energy moving to our south. 

Go to this link to the Canadian 132 hrs 5h and surface map then move it forward. You'll see what I'm talking about. Icon is similar, so try that too, but it stops before the end of the run for some unknown reason. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023121212&fh=132

just looked and yeah, IF that can evolve as depictec, your suspicions would have a chance.  closed off n column cools sufficiently to get er done....well....maybe. 

Hey, if I was a bit trigger happy on writing off the rest of the year, it wouldn't be the first time in my life I was wrong....it'd be the second.  

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Hahaha no way.  Probably a weenie eyeballing it.

MY wife and I were at PF Changs for grub and both saw it.  She said, "did you get that much at work"?  I said, not at my office.  Dunno either.

59 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Hey, Canadian has the threat now too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2023121212&fh=168

Hey, if theres a chance, lets chat it up.  Not sure about the evolution (162-168 a secondary pops due S of primary thats a beast at 989mb, but there is enough cold "close enough" to keep hope alive I guess.  GFS Op 500"s has a 4 contour closed LP of NC coast, and GEFS has 1 contour similarly placed.  GEPS is pos tilted and progressive scooter kinda look.  

23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think (?) it was WGAL and MU that both called for 1-3" of total snowfall for the month of December, specific for Lanco. That appears on track it seems. 

At least one of those outlets was that specific. 

FYI, ABC 27 last night said Elizabethown recorded 2.3" yesterday.  Dunno who he was chattin w/ but i didnt see that here.  Barely a coating.  @Mount Joy Snowman said he got 1".  Sounds like pockets of good stuff might have happenend.  I was just happy to see anafrontal snow.  

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

27.3 for the low this morning. 

You know, a lot of the winter outlooks had a common theme this year - a warm December with little snow followed by a pattern change in January that delivered a grand 2nd half of winter goodness. I speculated at that time (early November) that this place might become unhinged by December if the seasonal forecasts looked on track.

Un-hinging has commenced, I see.   

I see no reason why it won't be a good season overall. Unless you just want to say that it won't because it hasn't. I mean, the Cubs didn't win a World Series for like 650 years until they did. 

Just because we've had a succession of crappy winters doesn't mean things won't change. Doesn't mean it will, but there's objective reasoning that says it will. 

Hope your trip was nice.

Unhinged....sounds a little much IMO. (and the ones that are unhinged arent really from "in" here anyway).  They just come in to kick up the dust.  

I had a response to DT's comments typed, and forgot to hit post, so it went poof when I came back to my puter.

I'll just say that i agree w/ you.  Dec was never really looking good, and it already exceeded expectations for some/many of us CTP'rs.  If we go into Christmas like a lamb (sorta fitting eh??), the bang may happen as we turn the calendar.  No reason for anyone to fret.  Keep being nice, n santa may deliver the goods just a bit late.  NBD.

18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z GEFS has a workable looking pattern at the end of its run on 12/27.

Yeah just need to get through the next week to 10 days and hopefully the better looks start to have merit once things shuffle a bit further down the road.  

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I've seen snow fall imby 3 days out of the last 7, one with an inch+, anotheŕ with a tenth or 2, and the other decent flurries.  This week through Sunday per NWS is at or a little below normal with highs from the low to upper 40's and lows from the lower to upper 20's.  I haven't looked at the days before Christmas, but I  trust your analysis. When I  step out of my whinny, weenie shoes, I  would think this is feeling like a normal winter between now and Christmas. 

warmish look on Ens guidance doesnt mean HOT.  For timestamp of next chance, here is 2m temp anoms for conus.  Find me some cold air....please n thx. My observations are mine and mine only...of course the weenie in me wants bubbles to be right - yes i typed that....tis the season. 

10 minutes ago, paweather said:

Sometimes I think we will have to bank on one big Snowstorm to come close to our normal winter snow amounts anymore. 

While it does feel that way, I'd say its a byproduct of the regime we've been in w/ big fropas and trailing vorts trying to take advantage of antecedent cold.  Hoping as the nino evolves (and the pattern starts to do the same, that more "normal" kinda storms are modelled. 

Personally I'm not down at all....as stated, its been normal to me so far, and has been looking warmish for a while (even though LR GFS Op runs show otherwise (look at the ridging from same timestamp 3 runs earlier FWIW). 

Hoping we keep the southern jet active and can get the Pac/NH to reshuffle to a bit less hostile look as the year end nears. Then we just need to time things a bit more right and who knows... 

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No room for it to develop but at least the cold is in place.