pasnownut

Northern Pa right now.  Hearing totals of over 14" otg. in Cambria county.  Of course not a trained spotter, but if you wanna see his pic I'll share that too.  

9 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

Yeah similar story here... told the wife the snow was done after we went to sleet/rain around 9AM... then it changed back to heavy snow for a while longer... there goes my met credibility 

Wishing I would've made the predawn drive up to Blue Knob now.... was tempting to still try it after I saw they opened the whole mountain but I imagine it's still gonna get pretty wet and nasty up there very soon.

not often you get to hit 12" of fresh ungroomed snow.  Go get it....and like NOW.  

If only we had HP up north for the next one, I'd consider a road trip, but looks pretty wet...w/ little white. 

Then we set the table for the next week.  Nooners at 500 are more of a progressive look (like last weekends event...just notably colder wrt thermals), so hoping us SE'rs dont taint.  If one believes GFS...theres nothing to worry about cause there aint no storm to fret abt.  

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Exactly how you want a cutter like this to come in so snow is maximized-come in like a white wall so the temps don’t rise or crawl upward at the surface and mid levels like it would during breaks in the precip and into a big high pressure so overrunning is maxed out. Wish we had a big positive bust like this when I was at PSU. I remember disappointment one after another when I was there 2005-09. I know these are really tough to come by in central PA so enjoy! 

on occasion we've seen SLP go far enough W such that the warm air intrusion was lessend, which give some a little extra time before warm air scours out thermals.  Like you said, doesnt happen often, but it happens.  CAD feature was consistantly showing up for a while, even though many were too snakebit to believe.  Thats why I love this game...always keeps us guessing.  

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Icon now giving us snow next week. Very 6z Gfs'esq. We're  basically on the cold side of the boundary that results in overrunning. It'll changeat 0z, so...

.....we'll enjoy it for 12 hrs. 

Central and northern snow cams are just beautiful.  Enjoy it while you can lucky buggers.  

18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

At 6”, with heavy snow and 32/32ºF. I think there’s been some compacting too with the marginal temps. This event started around 630am here, what a beat down. 

Roads have been a mess, haven’t heard too many bad accidents on the scanner but lots of stuck cars. 

Congrats Mag.  Enjoy

Just now, str8liner said:

5 1/2 inches here so far and still putting it down. At this rate we might match or surpass Saturdays storm of 8 inches. 

Surprising since the NWS has me for 1-2, but I'll take it!

 

 

Today is another example of how one can miss seeing the forest through the trees.  Most didnt see this... but this storm has been modeled rather consistently for days now.  This next one is as well.  Not saying the outcome is the same, but lots of similarities and while there is no 1036 hp anchored for the next one, there may still be some more snow for some that have been longing to see it (likely northers for this upcoming weekend).  Some will say meh, but a true snow hound takes any snow they can get.  

Hoping some get more surprise snow this weekend, before we all may cash in next week.  Beyond that....who knows.  

Saw drizzle n 35 on way into office.  now light rain for me.  

Congrats to all the winners today.  Hoping you pad stats before you warm n wet like the rest of us losers.  

@Mount Joy Snowman and i heard lititz and manheim got 3-4" from weekend event prior to changeover, so I guess I verified my 3-6 even if not mby...hehe (I really dont give 2 shits....but co worker told me what we got).  I was just happy we got the storm.   

20 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah I'm thinking the heaviest of the qpf stays confined mostly to Mt. Holly's areas.  @pasnownut I'm thinking the cabins up north get a nice thumping through about lunch time.

Low of 28 here.  Currently 35 with light rain breaking out.

I have been, and continue to be, VERY intrigued about the prospects for next week.

Yep.  Snowing nicely up there now.  Been watching for last hour.  On top of what they got over weekend 4-5ish, it might make it through.  Dunno.  Nice to see laurels n central still snowing.  Happy for them. 

and yeah, a week from today the mood may be bright in here for a while.  

Squall line much?

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Going to guess a lot of power outages in the MA/NE starting tomorrow. 60 mph winds for hours and 2" rain on ground already matured from snow melt is a disaster dream nightmare scenario. 

FYP

39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon getting agressive with the cold if not the snow in the medium range. The cold is still moving east, yet to reach the coast, and is a 1pm map too.

Some of our wester and norther folk may like the GEM for this weekend.  Snow map is deep.  

Also seeing GEM now is a miller B w/ transfer at 120 as cold press is a tad deeper and likely helping.  Not sure if that gains any momentum or not. GFS not to dissimilar w/ SLP placement but warmer, so there's that.   

9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

.02" from yesterday's rain/snow showers and a low of 36.  Snow in the yard hanging on for dear life.  Whether rain or snow, looks like we have an action-packed couple of weeks ahead.  I still remain optimistic for what the back half of this winter can bring.  Onward.

yeah, it was nice to see chatter last week, and looks like more chatter (for various reasons) may continue.  Really hoping next weeks pattern can put some more snow/cold on the board for us.  

31 minutes ago, dj88 said:

I think maybe elevation played into it somewhat? I live right in Elysburg and we never had more than 2 inches on the ground before changing to rain. But I think the top of Natalie had 5. My parents in Danville also had 5. Seems Elysburg proper is always warmer?

Yeah I could have added Danville to the winners list (hills north towards northumberland anyway).  Bear Gap always "wins".  Lol.

Elevation was discussed by some of us early on wrt this event, and that surely factored into the mix of who got what.  R/S line is tricky in marginal events and always some winners and losers.  We all got snow, so it was a win IMO. 

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fyi, I hate strong winds no matter the season. Stay safe.

I have an old and huge pin oak that has lots of widowmakers hangin on it.  Was told not to trim this tree as pin oaks are sensitive.  Sounds like mo nature may do some pruning for me (right over my driveway of course, so may park cars out on street for this one. 

Hope yall enjoyed the weekend snow.  Left cabin w/ about 4-5" on top and snowing mid morning yesterday.  Nice to see winter back (albeit briefly).

Elysburg to 901 exit of 81 appeared to be the winners (eyeballing mind you).  Saw some sled tracks in fields on way home (and going into office this am).  

I was a touch heavy on Lanco accums but saw enough pics on soc media to know that it did snow.  I dont really care if I was off for MYB but sounds like it did pretty well in the Altoona/Poc axis.  Good for them.  

Enjoy the gullywasher this week and hopefully we'll be back in the game soon as tellies dont look great beyond next couple weeks.

Up at cabin enjoying the dusting of snow otg and checkin in to tell you all to enjoy the storm. First in a long while. Stickin with my 3-6 from days ago. Hope everyone beats me ( and most should). 
Happy weekend. 24 deg was hi  up on top at cabin. 

22 minutes ago, paweather said:

Its OK. i only paid for the month will likely pay 1 more month for it. 

I liked it in the old days, but I'm sure alot has changed since then. My bro suggested that he watches some of the weather guys on youtube and one guy he told me to watch called the NAO the North American Oscillation.  I chuckled and havent watched him since. Guess I'll stay here for a while longer to get my fix. 

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

JB still 3-6, 6-12 NW areas. 

Do you like WB?  I had it for a while many moons ago, and considered getting it again.  

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Indeed you are.  If I'm not mistaken you guys have a bit of elevation around your area that may help, no?  Either you or that other fella reside up near 800'?  I assume that varies quite a bit from the town of Hanover?  I'm not overly familiar with that area.  I have a ridge directly behind my house that gets to 600-700' in spots but I only sit part way up it at a little under 500'.

To add to how elevation dependent events can be down our way, I've seen brown and at the top of my hill in town, white powder bombs and the diff is literally 100-150' of elevation.  Thats how close we often are down here.  This one will likely have some characteristics like that.  

BTW, that RGEM snow map is a winner for us.  Just need to figure out how to rig other models to match it.  

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Mostly holds but gets tighter around the edges with the mix line.  Keeps encroaching a wee bit for those of us in Lanc.  Could be a tight one down this way.  But then again, when is it not ha.

If were using history as a guide, history proves this point more times than not and despite what the models show we've seen this rodeo a few times and as i've been saying for days, have always factored that in based on pattern depicted.  Making cold air is not easy for us LSV'rs.  Never has been and its all about the rates. 

14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The FV3 (a model I have little faith in) has virtually no snow for York/Lanc counties.  The 3k NAM is solid.

Lancaster crew, what do we make of WGAL having the entirety of York and Lanc counties with basically a Trace to an inch or two?  I know they use their own "predictor" model.  

I think they take the "safe" bet as its a win - win.  To the low end if a trace, snow haters are happy....to the high end, if they say 2" and we get 3-4" most people knew it was coming and most wont measure to say "you were wrong".  They dont count inches like us weenies do.  

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Agreed 2 to 3 hours of thump could give 2 to 5 inches before changed over to sleet and light rain.


.

Sounds reasonable as depicted and falls in line w/ alot of others.  I still expect my north tick tomorrow, but for now its good enough for many.