pasnownut

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Models are nothing more than tools that comprise what a good met has at his/her disposal. There were good forecasters in your area that were calling for 1-3". Seems like not such a bad call right now. Models are prone to inaccuracy. 

The ones who were really wrong? How about the people that slammed CTP for not issuing a Winter Storm Warning for certain areas that only have about 2" on average with not a whole lot more to look forward to? It's not over yet (we'll see what happens later on) but it seems highly unlikely that York and Lanco are getting 5" from this. 

Seems to me that CTP had our area right. Again. And I'm sure for the next storm, they'll be taken to the woodshed prior to the storm even happening again. 

 

I'm just going to add a bit to this.

You are totally on point here.  Models are tools that are used in tandem w/ a myriad of "tools" including climatology and have known biases.  We ALL know this.

I really get chapped when peeps come in....add little/nothing as to what they think may be right or wrong, and just bash.  Guess its always easier and more convenient to blame someone (or something) else.  CTP did a nice job here. 

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Man, the radar has really collapsed for the LSV, even earlier than I thought it would.  Certainly looking like the under is going to easily hit on my 3.5" estimate.

That has been modelled so its clearly an option.  Looks like later on things start back up a bit.  Well we hope so anyway.

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My Uncle in Lewes, DE reported to me that he had 9" when he measured at 9:30am. He had 2" in the previous hour. They live less than a mile from Cape Henlopen State Park. 

wife headed there this weekend with gal pals.  She told me to shussh last night when I spoke of the weekend biggin potential.  Sounds like sheel have snow otg no matter.

nice to see nooner NAM showing backfilling as 500 vort pass occurs later.  Mood snow for much of the day is fine w/ me.

edit.  most mesos look decent for rest of the day mood snows.  

Win.

7 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Just went to heavy snow.

23F


.

I hope my backyard in akron is under same band

Really rippin here in etown.  Just need this for the next few hours or my 3" min is in trouble.

31 minutes ago, paweather said:

Places to our north are getting rocked. This shows you how the models once again didn't portray a northern aspect to the storm. 

This shows how forcing is often part of the challenge, as I suggested the other day (and its known by most), one doesnt have to be in the jackpot qpf, to be able to maximize potential in areas of best forcing (700's and isothermally).  We are seeing just that in central/norther pa.  May not be a big win, but to be in the game and not on bench is good enough when livin on the edge.  

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

22.5 this morning with -SN falling. Just measured 1" on the nose. Beautiful scene. Probably won't be big totals but enjoying what's falling. 

If I had one wish, let's cover my grass blades today. I did not do my traditional snow mow as the last few years it seemed like it was a curse. Plus, I didn't want to further embarrass my weather friends by padding my total.  My grass is about 2" in height. 

Us weather geeksl MUST be wired the same.

My backyard bar for any event, is to NOT see my grass blades stickin out. 

When cleaning patios or paths to woodbin, I will kick snow over exposed grass wherever i can. 

thanks for the chuckle.  Nice to know I am in good company for being a whacko.

Icon and Rgem both continue the wagons slightly N trend.  Enough for me to sleep well no matter what the rest show.  Keeps me safely in my 3-6".  Glad to see most here will be joinin in some fun.

11 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

I am loving this 500mb chart at the end of the 0z NAM for the weekend storm potential. Kick that southern piece out and look out


.

yeah if we can get them to hook up, that might be a fun one to watch.

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Honestly, I've never cared about whether I  get warned, watch, etc. I just want frozen qpf!

you can advise my 4"

you can watch my 4"

you can warn my 4"

As long as I can play w/ my 4"....I'm giddy

43 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

NAM with a noticeable tick north on snow accums.

mesos joinin in the bump N w/ second tier southers gettin a little more.  Hoping we can eek out another bump before go time.  I'll be sleepin, so I'll just dream about it and see if dreams really do come true.

28 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Wish these north bumps started like this yesterday.


.

weve got 3 model runs of "ticks" left....

Inside 24, its nice to see N ticks still happening.  IF we can get 1 or 2 more northers, many LSV'rs are affected and snow weenies rejoice.  

1 hour ago, Festus said:

I'm in Hempfield School District and they've made extensive use of the "virtual learning day" these past number of years.

yeah thats my point.  Any reason.....

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Icon

add it to "the keep pile"

5 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Jesus these models flip flop more then a fish out of water

Just figurin that out huhh....

This is the norm and has been for as long as i can remember.

If on the fringe, yeah I get the frustration, but me thinks anyone between rt 30 and I 80 corridor shouldnt be surprised by whatever transpires model wise today

I will add that no matter what tomorrow does, ens and tellie guidance sure does look workable or better for the next couple weeks.  

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, the liabilities are the key IMO.    Plus the ability to Zoom up a day.   If they get kids in school and it is still snow at 3-4PM it is a total disaster that is fireable for some. 

Yeah, I forgot zoom.  Still think that school districts need to be reminded that whats easy for them, isnt always easy for homes/families.  Multitude of tangible/intangible liabilities attached.  But we know this, so I'll stop there. 

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, the liabilities are the key IMO.    Plus the ability to Zoom up a day.   If they get kids in school and it is still snow at 3-4PM it is a total disaster that is fireable for some. 

based on duration/timing, this one screams SNOW day for many in southern 1/3 of state IMO

14 minutes ago, str8liner said:

I am 3 miles north of the Turnpike in Bedford Co. So I still hold out hope I can get the snow blower out.

 

 

I think you are rather safe in the 4-6".  

I'm gonna blow the hell outta my 1-2" tomorrow.

That didnt sound very good did it?

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

IF an area is getting 3" or 4" and the snow has already started I doubt they roll the busses.  But 2-4" would probably preclude the risk of a 2 day snow break. 

dunno bout your hood, but down here, i think they just look for an excuse for a day off.  That coupled w/ normal liablities that come w/ snow and kid watchin seems to scare em quick.

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I read in the NE forum that Snowgoose, met from NY, says a no go.

Too early to say for sure, but except for the Gfs and Euro, there's been no hint of anything like they're showing on the Gem, Ukie? or Icon.

hell, just look at GFS op/ens, and if anyone has been doing this, that alone should cause a flag to show up.  Notable diff's within them at 500.  Just gonna be fun to enjoy a winter week and chat up more potential.  

1 hour ago, anthonyweather said:

12z hrrr slightly expanding precip for the northern flank 

today is the add any model that shows what we want into the "ones not to toss" pile.  

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Looks destined it a CT mauler to me 

CTP had MDT forecast for 1-3”. Feels right. Nuisance type event. 

That comment was in regards to the next weekend event.  I think this one is a safe advisory for you and south, but once north of the burg is gonna have a noticable drop.  I'd bet selinsgrove barley sees an inch.  

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I went 3-5" imby yesterday in the MA forum, and I think mentioned it here too, and reiterated it earlier this morning. No reason to change that yet. If I  thought a change made sense, my gut says it would be lower and not higher. This has been a central MD/VA storm since 6z Friday run when Euro and Ukie went south. Changes have not been enough in the right ways atmospherically; at least, not yet, and we're running out of time.

Next weekend thing looks very questionable too.

I'd think your by call is safe.  next weekend just looks good on Op surface maps, but ENS arent really supportive.  Plenty of time to narrow that one it.