pasnownut

34 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I'd drink to that

who you kiddin.....

you'd drink to many things..........

18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

ALEET , ALEET! Lunchtime ALEET 

12z Euro…. For Sunday night.

If this happens, we should call it the @mitchnickstorm!

guess i shoulda looked at this post before i posted my previous one.  GFS/CMC favored northers, this one favors many.  

You just found your model to hug. 

Just peeked on pivotal and it looks like ULL dives in to save the day for us...thermally.  Not sure why it slides SE at 96 as the HP up north is too far N to force it under, but hey....what do I know.  We'll take it. 

44 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I believe snow depth is to be reported as an average.  I.E. if half your yard has 3 inch depth and half is bare you would report a snow depth of 1.5".  @Cashtown_Coop can verify

 

Yep, yard was full and solidly covered when I left for work this morning.  My backyard faces ESE but lies on a NW-facing slope.  Also have some tall trees around the perimeter that provide ample shade, but even the parts that aren't shaded were holding strong.  Tomorrow morning will be a different story ha. 

My yard was showing signs of caving....to the grass, but like yours was still holding up where it wasnt thin.  Tonight will be a snow eater. I've seen snow otg for about a week, so its a win for me no matter.  

Hoping we are trackin again soon.  This weekend is a sneaky surprise for the northers (as currently modeled, but would be backend loving for the lucky ones), as cold has been scoured and is gone leading up to the Sunday potential and with a cutter/redeveloper, I fear cold is too late to do much cept for elevation folks, but I've been wrong before. 

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The EPS weeklies then lock the good pattern in from the second week of February through early March.

 

 

 

Thats a decent look right there.

39 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Give us a picture of your dream 500mb

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

many 384hr 500 maps come to mind....

Nice well placed PNA ridge in the west

west based NAO or neg AO

active STJ across the south. 

I can draw but I hope that works for your visual needs

and for any wondering what "wonky ass looks" definition is.  See below.  F'd up omega block is also one that comes to mind. 

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Although I'll likely never see a storm exactly like March 1993 again, a wound up triple phased monster is something that I yearn for. And if it means I mix over at some point while areas west get obliterated with feet of snow, so be it. I'd just like to experience something close to the Superstorm again in my life. 

I honestly think that even though March 1993 was dubbed the 100 year storm, I think the odds are at least decent that there is a wound up monster sometime sooner than later. 

We've actually had a couple decent looks so far this season that had the 3 in play, just off on timing.  

With the active STJ, all we need is for the wonky ass 500 looks to settle down, get the PNA back to + and then maybe....just maybe.    

14 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said:

I'll split the hog with you on the 9th. That's my bday.  Also the NWS's bday!  A crippling triple-phaser for the ages is all I ask for each year.  Or cash.

i got a 1/2 hog last year.  First time i've ever gotten custom meat. 

I will do that again.  lotsa good eats.  

Oh and we'll start a gofundme for the cash.  Much easier gift to get (than triple phaser). 

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

A lingering memory of Dt's typing skills when he posted on Eastern.

all good pal....

just having some fun while we wait for better weather......

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Already better than last winter somewhat…so that’s good.

this post for 1000......

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The Canadian comes close to a miracle with the Sunday/Monday storm. It does get some snow into the state but no big deal. Gfs and Icon are carp with it.

carp?

is that in the sucker family....... 

30 minutes ago, paweather said:

I was thinking Feb 10th on will be very good for us with a favorable pattern. 

I'm going whole hog on the 9th....

anyone wanna box him in and take 2/11??

and fwiw, I'm not doom n gloom, just being a realist.  

And the realist in me just looked at the tellies, and all is surely not lost. 

AO/NAO headed neg in Feb, will get cold back/closer

PNA headed neg - not good but AO/NAO could offset 

MJO headed twds p7 may help as well 

Unfortunately MJO/NAO are volatile and can shart da bed w/ the best of em, but IF one believes what the tellie ouija board suggests....it should be more workable as we turn the calendar.   

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The GFS capitulating to making the 28th low an inland runner and not sending it up to be a new 50/50 is not helpful for early Feb cold.   The 0Z was truly ugly and more matches the painful look on the Ensemble anomalies. 

12Z yesterday

 

 

 

6Z Today

 

 

Don't "like" this post, but I agree w/ you.  While I've taken a break from models (while enjoying winter IMBY), after lookin at overnighters, this weekend event would have been sneaking one in during a shit pattern. 

Next week may try to do the same, but we need wholesale changes in pattern before we can get better looks and thats a couple weeks out.  If we can time something just right/thread the needle, then maybe, but those odds are a crap shoot down here.  

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

So why is the Gfs operational looking so much colder with the 0z and 6z runs? Could be its MJO prediction that now gets us into Phase 7, which puts troughiness in the east. By the way, here's a link to MJO phases during El Niños.

https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

Here is another that I use in case anyone want to look at a couple.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Nice winter weekend.  

Now we wash, rinse and ......

repeat?  

Hoping this weeks warmup is short lived and we get the repeat sooner than later.

When I measured around 2:45 we were a tick under 4”. Guessing 1/3-1/2” addl at most.  Still very light  snow n I’m loving every flake. 

12 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Asphalt and concrete surfaces turning white again.


.

Was just going to add that it’s snowing nicely (albeit rather fine). All shoveled plowed etc has turned white here as well. Enjoy every flake. Might be a bit till we see more falling. 

20 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

In Carlisle, at 3:26pm there are just some flurries going on.  During the past 2 1/2 hours I've picked up a whopping 0.2" to bring the storm total to 2.8".  I melted down the snow and got 0.21" of liquid.  This produces an SLR of 13.3 : 1.  My temp peaked at 29.8 degrees and has fallen back down to 28.6 degrees.  That's it for me.  Off to DC for the weekend to visit my son.

Enjoy time w/ your son.  Safe travels.

13:1 sounds rather reasonable for the whole event total.  

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Agree with everything but would add that it's a thin overcast and I've been seeing the sun off and on through the morning ever since the heavy stuff moved out.  Add to that the fact we're at a solar max, which I  know I've mentioned a couple times recently already, and that boosts the melting process.

You bring some good stuff to the group.  Glad you are with us.

1 hour ago, Coop_Mason said:

M4.1”.   Snow depth is 7”.   Marking this storm down as a win!!

as well you should.  Really light snow here and holes in radar say were close to a wrap here.  Last measure for me was a pinch under 4" and it absolutely was a win for most of us as per obs that are being shared.

Just got done doing my neighborhood snowblowin n cracked my last mad elf in celebration of a snowy weekend.

Just got home a bit ago.

Eyeballing and spot measurements in Etown Manheim, Lititz and my house

Etown 2.5 ish  27 deg

Manheim 2.0ish  25deg

Litltz 2.5ish    26 deg

House 3.5 on back porch  27 deg

Any previously treated surfaces were wet and melting.  Anything not treated or plowed was snow covered or slippy for sure.  These are obs during my 28 mile trek home to hang out w/ my wife.  Except for Manheim, I got out and measured.  Just beautiful out there.  Saw fresh snowmobile tracks in manheim.  Looking forward to some riding tomorrow. 

Last night on way home Etown was brining already whitish roads, so makes sense that stickage was gonna be tough. 

Steady light snow in Akron.  Hoping coastal backend gives me another 1-1.5.  

Great friggin day.  No chest thumpin here.  Just enjoying a nice event that we saw from far out, and it worked. 

This will stick around for a few days at least...enjoy.

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It was, until health issues popped up a month later and after almost dying twice and being misdiagnosed twice thereby taking meds that were the cause of all my problems, my memory is a bit jaded.

Oof.  That sucks.  Glad you got things figured out.

14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes that is quite the difference between us.  I will measure again at 1pm but I should be close to 3", I would think.  Yeah, we'll see what happens with any redevelopment from the coastal but it doesn't look like anything too crazy.  Thinking maybe we can add another inch, 2 if things break just right.

I'll be driving home shortly, so I'll get some eyeball measurements from Etown to manheim to litltz to akron.  Eyeballing at least 2" here in our parking lot and other items that were clean prior to start. 

best rates i've seen so far for this one.  (in etown)

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They better enjoy it now because the chances of more natural snow won't come for 3+ weeks the way it's looking now unfortunately. 

Yeah long leads lookin less than stellar, but as we know next week is warm, I'll start worrying about it later next week.  I'm not gonna worry or gnash teeth in 6hr increments anymore.  I'm just gonna enjoy what we got as long as we've got it.  Was hoping PNA could offset AO/NAO, but time will tell.