pasnownut

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I need a good 18z run after that Eagles game…

I'm not usually too upset about it as its just a game...

but I'm actually pissed off today....

I dont wash jersey when winning

I wash when we lose.

we've been losing....time to burn it yet 

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z and 0z eps snowfall for comparison.  Pretty close, for better or worse.

I like that tick SE.  Pattern is just getting established, so I'm setting realistic expectations here in Lanco, but CTP should love the nooners.  

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Will it turn north?

if that 1035hp holds, i hope it bowling balls due east

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good points, but yesterday at this time we only had models keeping this storm well to the south or no storm showing.

That is Mitch's point, in one day we went from well south to bullseye.  

I'm back from a few days away, and like you, I'm about to get invested in the upcoming period that we've been seeing coming for weeks. 

Just hoping the chips fall right for us.  Looking like plenty of opps for storms as the Pineapple connection looks to keep throwin stuff our way.  

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Didn't Philly average more snow than state college for the 2010 decade. I remember some ridiculous statistic like that.

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Not sure of what years (but I'm sure some of the data mongers have it).  Yes, there were a few years when us SE'rs had notably more snow than some true CTP locals.  Early look was for this year to potentially be one of em.  I'm not throwing any towels whatsoever, but as the pattern looks to get better, cold is still taking some time.  I've learned a long time ago that we need to get the pattern right before any digi snowmaps start to mean much.  Still look to be heading in a better direction for that anyways.   Weather insnt a light switch, and patience is still needed.  If 2 weeks from now were still waiting....then I'll start to worry a bit more.

17 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Is that considered an overrunning event?  I’ve always been a little unclear on what constitutes that kind of event exactly.

I believe the Feb.5-6, 2010 storm was an over runner.  That gave my area over 20”.  Would love to see one like that again.

Based on nooner evolution, thats more of a miller A as its one system rolling along w/ HP up north.  Overrunning is when the warmer moisture rides up over cold HP and in between precip gets squeezed out aka baroclinic zone.  You often have baroclinic zones during zonal flow patterns.  Hope that helps a bit.

26 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z GFS wishes you a Happy Birthday!

The upcoming pattern would support this type of event, so let’s continue to watch the chances develop over the next week or two.

At least they are coming under us and not at or above us, so at the minimum the pattern change is happening.  To what degree, dunno yet.

Merry Christmas to all.

40 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

That just has to do with max min temps though

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It has a few items and one is models. Maybe this helps from NCEP as they have some tools as well 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml

only goes out to 6-7 days tho me thinks. 

45 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

How does NWS measure model error 9 days out?

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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/medrhist.shtml  or pic below

you pick.  

41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Things look good to me in the day 10-15 5 day means on all 3 globals in early January.

sure looks better and nice to have support on all major ens guidance.  In my opinion, Op models should start becoming more believable in the coming days.  Sure hope so.  

3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Disclaimer, this is just a PBP and doing the 300's because it is when wintery weather would get most interesting.  If you do not like LR OP's, great....tell your wife, tell your dog, say a prayer, but I do not need to know it.  Appreciate it! 

 

 

Here's the problem.....you've offered many long lead Op maps when some of us knew it wasn't happening (last weeks non event that you thew one out many days prior), yet you troll (me) and dismiss others for what they offer that you dont agree with.  Hmmm....  Cant have it both ways pal. 

FWIW, ANY 300 hr map in the last few years has largely been "low res" if we look at verification scores.

In the spirit of Christmas, I'll offer the last olive branch as I know we both share the love of weather in hopes of better times in here, as even I am tired of all of the basing of late.  I'll no longer trash your offerings that I don't agree with, but I'll point out why I disagree (its a weather disco board ya know), and if I'm wrong, I'm capable of eating crow (and like usual, I'll admit it). 

As I enjoy/appreciate info you provide - and have even given you credit when you point something of merit, but being dismissive when others share same things as you do and only you get the "good call" is part of the problem here. Its surely noticed.

Clickiness in our group has created alot of this, and many here have played a part in creating it...you're not exempt from that...and neither am I. 

It would be nice for all of us to have meaningful dialog without waiting for certain people to say "its happening".  Were all a bunch of novice weather geeks, but there are plenty smart enough in here to support our groups weather convo.  I don't think most here get paid for this.  Its just for fun. 

Expecting to be ignored, but I'm over our past as I'm old enough to no longer hold grudges.  

Merry Christmas to all...and to any that don't believe in Christ....you should go to work tomorrow 

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps looks similar to Geps for the 7th. Still more snow would fall beyond the last panel of the run per qpf maps.

Last week my thinking was that by this weekend, good looks would start to show up on the maps.  Glad to see were getting there.

4 hours ago, canderson said:

Car says 17 this am - brr 

thinnking of you at this difficult time bud.

3 hours ago, anotherman said:

Lots of focus on high temperatures on operational models over a week away. Focus on the pattern. El Niño is not known for super cold. Just cold enough.

Thank you ....thank you....

and thank you.  

Until the pattern is figured out by larger scale indicators....even the best snow map on a mid/LR Op run is a short hair more useful than boobs on a bull.  

I'll us tellies and Ens guidance all day and every day, and even though not always correct, still better than 1 silly run of an LR Op.  Ens guidance is many slight iterations of a general common basepoint, and while there are outliers, the ens mean is a good/great tool for longer leads when throwing darts at the weather board.

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't look now, but 2/10 just walked in the door. Sharp north cut-off included.

I guess the retreating cold air came back.....

Holy crap, I feel like a cupcake compared to the last few pages.

HH takes one for the team.

14 minutes ago, paweather said:

All good @Blizzard of 93 we know the pattern is changing. Just not the specifics of when yet. 

Based on tellies/ens guidance, looks like the pattern changes just after santa heads back up the chimney.  AO/NAO headed - and PNA slightly + is going to help and ens guidance supports this.  Unfortunately while the 500's look better as we approach New Years, the source regions are not flooded w/ arctic air.  2m temp snapshot shows this. At least flow is better and hoping the cold can load up in the land of the canooks...but this is a Nino so I'm not sure cross polar air is headed here yet.  Better is the word for now.

18 minutes ago, paweather said:

Now that we have most Ens guidance showing the change and we're inside 200 hrs, it should give confidence to better times a comin. 

For all the lovers of LR Op, go peek at the 384 GFS.  Looks like a doozy taking shape down south with cold a plenty in the MA.  Rolled forward the word "incoming" pops into my noggin.  

7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

After this morning's coating of snow today should see temps struggling to escape the 30's across most areas. The week leading up to Christmas Day should be near to a bit below normal temperature wise for much of the week before rising to well above normal (normal highs near 40 degrees) with highs in the upper 40's by Christmas Day.

Records for today: High 62 (1929) / Low +1 (1951) / Rain 1.30" (1934) / Snow 15.0" (2009). That snowstorm in 2009 helped deliver 1 of the only 2 White Christmases (other 2012) we have seen in Chester County in the last 14 years.

 

Yeah its nice to know that while we'll be under the influence of a large ridge this weekend, 2m temps are only in the 40's.  Factoring normal biases, I'd guess some might crack 50 for a day or so, but at least its no pig ridge w/ anomalous warmth.  That was my worry last week, but I'm happy to be wrong in that regard.  

15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I am confident you will be as well haha. Low of 33 here with some radar snow showers overnight. No evidence of anything. Seasonable week ahead, it seems. 

woke up to a coating/dusting on the grass/car topper.  

Ens guidance looks to be AOA the 10 day window for appreciable changes, so lets hope that by this weekend we are starting to crawl outta the caves and start chatting up some white love from above.  

11 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

I distinctly remember a respected poster from the Mid-Atlantic region doing a deep dive for dca snowfall for like 30years and pulled in I think at least seasonal average NAO/ENSO values if not monthly for a good portion of his study period to look at correlations. I wish I could find his post because I think he left links to his numerical data/calculations and writeup which was quite good. The thing that always stuck with me about trying to posit correlations with snow with indice values is that some are much more stable on daily, weekly, monthly readings then others (i.e ENSO vs MJO). Most of these indices were invented in the 1970s or later, with limited ability to use distant pass observations to calculate any values outside a best guess for a yearly or seasonal value. The estimates can vary wildly and older studies are super hard to get their data, hell even newer ones can be a bitch to get it coming from an outside academia amateur hobbyist position.

Anyways, I distinctly remember how little seasonal and even monthly nao readings statistically impacted snowfall at DCA. I think maybe if one came up with a large multivariate dynamic system that looked at daily readings of all teleconnections to calculate parameters akin to distance, velocity, acceleration, force, momentum for each indice. While taking account for all the variables effect on each other on different time scales to adjust for inherent stability of each indice. Knowing the daily MJO phase is great, but how deep is it in the phase, how fast (absolute & net) in all plot dimensions is it traveling, same with any acceleration over different time periods, as well as distance. Now how does that daily pattern effect NAO (if at all) on different delayed time scales. If you think of a 7 days or 10 days (I e) of MJO readings as a unique song, then with calculated parameters each day as notes, with each parameters calculated parameters daily (as each notes flavors) over time then you slowly built up groupings via graph theory that essentially group all those songs into genres that have their own unique effects on the other indices depending on time scales. A large regional location like northeast, Midwest, ect maybe able to equate their exposure to genres taking into account order and time effects to a slight moderate correlation with regionwide seasonal snowfall. But even on a statewide level it comes down to randomness with a larger structural environment far more than any of us want to admit

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Great read man, and I totally agree.  Thats why I always share various tellies, as while some indies are major drivers, they still are only 1 piece to a puzzle that is in a state of flux, and while separate in space, are always intertwined in our weather and evolution.  Its not a simple x/y correlation for any 1 telleconnection and what it shows.  Regarding MJO post, I suggested going strongly into 8 because higher amplitude might offset other more muted signals that AO/NAO/PNA were showing.  

Not gonna be able to dive in today (my sons house has 2" water in basement-so I'm at office to clean stuff up, and then going to hang up the santa suit for today (client wise) and put the muck boots on to help my kid.  

Quick look at Ens guidance looks notably better for the holiday week and beyond.  Hoping the evolution continues to work towards a good pattern.

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good news on the MJO per @Weather Will

 

 

“MJO progression supports colder temps as we enter 2024.”

•  

This looks better than a couple days ago when i said it needed to go due W right off the chart.  Thats a decent run into 8 and coupled w/ better tellies might just get r done.

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looking at the trailing vort on the 6z op and eps along with eps snowfall map it looks like we should see at least snow showers, if not some light snow accumulations, with the vort passage.

Sure hope so.  

If one looks at 2m temps beyond the rainer on the GFS, while the pattern still looks less than ideal....its not horrid either and beyond christmas the temp profile looks rather ninoish and more workable.  

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

WPC continues to up the goods:

 

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z EPS has a similar looks as well!

Liking that the GFS Ens are showing, but this ^^ is not a great look IMO.  Hoping that ridging in central Canook land gets suppressed as source region (while cold)- is modified polar pacific origin, and while it may get cold enough, that ridge rolls over a tad east.....and you can look at early next weeks rainer and assume something similar IMO.  Just me nitpickin and not forecasting whatsoever. 

10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I did. Screw em. I can appreciate the opinion of those who think otherwise. I can appreciate snownut's appreciation for weather reports from East Nantmeal, as it is closer to him than say, Ridgway, and I have said on many occasions that folks like TugHillMatt are more than welcome here, but the trolls, they can go.

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trolls is the key word/exception in all of this crap.