pasnownut

GFS at 78 NS energy notably further south.  That should help

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Man, I really like the look at the end of the NAM and RGEM runs, to go along with what the Icon is showing.  Would be another quick hitter but could be a fun little advisory type event to kick off the weekend.

absolutely.  If we can get GFS to start showing NS and SS to come together (they were close at 6z) we might be in luck. 

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm liking 12z modeling so far. We may just nickel and dime ourselves to average yet thanks to February, the favored month in Niños. 

Yep, looks like fun times trackin wise, and hopefully eekin our way towards climo. 

Lightyears better than last season.  

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

12z Nam offering a new twist to the weekend not on other modeling...Gulf of Mexico connection?

lol or ninjad ??  Just posted the same thought regarding saturday potential.  it has a shot based on flow/pattern etc.  

I'm gonna go out on a snow covered saggin limb and say that Saturday looks to have a chance for something.  NAM extrapolated and a couple others are showing enough souther and norther interaction to keep me interested.  

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

GFS too north, EC 0Z too South for the Icon Sat snowstorm.  At least a possible tracking event this week.    A shallow trough promoting it. 

yep.  Tells me there's a lot going on and they are struggling to figure out where things set up.  For any that are writing them off....step back 24hrs (better get some mileage outta it while we can...lol)

still moderate snow in Etown at 9am

hopin for another hour but back edge is gettin close

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lots of chance ls on the 6z Gfs, but no direct hits. That's ok with me.

you know the saying....throw enough shit into the chute, and your bound to get hit by some.

3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

PPL estimates my power will be restored by 11pm on Valentines day. The heavy snow ripped the telephone line from the house to the pole. And I still hear trees cracking and breaking.

You've gotta be at 8" + ??

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

Same here! co-worker called at 430 and gave me a heads up on how bad roads were. roads were untouched when i came in. I can't recall driving on 11&15 or I-81 that was unplowed. 

Yeah I usually chuckle at some folks for not driving in it, but any that sat this one out...it was legit.  FWIW my vehicle is and AWD Acadia. 

and I forgot to add.

31 degrees on car thermo whole way in. 

Now we gotta hug Z Icon for friday night/saturday refresher.  

Looks like multiple chances for at least some flakes in next 7-10 days.  Sure hope so.

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT still reporting Heavy Snow at 8 am with .25 mile visibility.

ETown....ditto.

1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

Maybe heaviest rates of the storm right now. Down to nearly 1/4 visibility. Nukeage.

Just got into work after an 80 min drive (normally 35).  Pretty much puking snow the hole way from the house.

Observations from newport rd to etown rd to office in etown.. 

Litltz - was around 3-4" when I stopped for office fasnachts at weisers (best donuts in the world)

Manheim - at least 5-6" and was one big traffic jam

etown - about 5" at 8:10 am

if we can hang onto a couple more hours, high ends likely in play.  If not, its still a fantastic pounding all the same.

I will also add that for those that stayed home....you were smart.  Been a long time since i've driven in such greasy conditions, and I LOVE driving in it.  Lets just say my arse was puckered tight a handful of times.

Enjoy everyone who got into it.

Rates dropped off here for now but man was it ripping a bit ago. Grass about 1/2” from beiung gone. 

Blizz…..enjoy bud.
 

This is your storm.  You are most deserving. 

And now……

BOOM

Wow. We’ve officially reached pukage status. 

Changeover started around 4 in Northern Lanco. Really rippin at 5. Ground is white and it’s beautiful out. Mesos from last evening that Accuchris shared were on point regarding that. Now let’s pile it up quickly. 

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The progged evolution of the low has appeared to change some. Might not be truly one but it’s more of an A look than a B look now with the low mostly just going right to the coast and deepening  pretty far south of PA instead of a distinct primary trying to cut thru WV towards western PA. That’s what really cuts QPF and really sharpens the gradient on the NW side of the storm in western/north central PA. It also is what now puts the whole Sus Valley back in the game. Said yesterday the dynamics are there to snow whereever in PA that swath decides to set up, irregardless of elevation. There’s going to be intense rates in that banding. It is going to be moving pretty fast either way. 

 

and to further that point, at different times, it was technically being shown as an A, and not a B, but has vacillated back n forth to some degree.

I'm glad we lost the B look with further S track and less worry for transfer.   Some of us have enough to worry about (SE'rs).

.  

Once again, props to the GFS Op for sniffin this one out.  

6 days ago

current

3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I actually think that’s a bit too aggressive. Gotta hope the rates are there.

my concern is the speed of the storm as we lose a good chunk of white qpf to warm thermals and waiting for transfer.  1-2 hours off and boom becomes bust for some of us southers. 

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

FWIW, and to the delight of many...

MU just caved to the models. He acknowledged a massive shift south in guidance and is gung-ho for a plowable snowstorm.

@Blizzard of 93 you said last Thursday evening that you couldn't wait for his map on Monday...

It's coming soon, he just stated.

Noone here wants him to be wrong.....and to your surprise, i enjoy his reads a LOT and think he's a great met....but he's not infallible, and it happens. 

All of us know its alot more than just model speak that get us storms, but sometimes the feel in here is that we shouldn't discuss unless the weather gods say its happening. 

This storm is a good example, and part of the fun for those of us that know were C team players (at best).  We come here to chat up weather, and IMO that shouldnt be discouraged....but debated often. Thats the fun. 

And fwiw I hope is early spring call bust badly as well....as we arent sure about next week let alone next month.  If I were a betting man, more chips would fall on his side of the bet.   

Hope you understand my perspective. 

.

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I get it - there's a fine line I guess between getting word out in time to raise awareness vs not having to retract a headline when things swing back in an unfavorable direction. 

People would ALWAYS take an "all clear" over getting caught off guard. 

Thats just common logic, nothing more.

just because its snowing, doesnt mean schools should close.  there is plenty enough info out there for schools to make best logical call with said info.  People know that its weather, and not a perfect science....despite techno advances. 

remember some of us walked uphill.....both ways.....in FEET of snow, and look how we turned out. 

Just now, 717Weather said:

Just so where clear is that straight line? or driving distance?  ....  I'm only 15.8 as the crow fly's but....

LMAO....

best answer I've got....probably the shorter of the 2.