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pasnownut

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    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

    Interesting battle setting up between the Euro/Ukie against the rest. Up until about 2 years ago you could take that combo to the bank. Not so much last year...who will grab the early lead in winter 2018-19?...

    Yeah how bout it.  I thought the same thing when I saw ukie and heard Euro was flush....

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

    Hey all - just a few interesting items of note that I have for this event.  First one is that I am curious to see how "modeled vs actual" obs are going to play out for the temperature profile as surface temps are going to be running about 20 degrees below normal during the day during the initial thump at the start of the event tomorrow.  Models running a degree or two warmer than what actually occurs due to influence from climatology could be a difference in surface p-type for some spots (thinking snowfall total gradient sets up around Susquehanna River except for splitting York Co. with increases in totals to the west).  Second is that Harrisburg has had totaled 4" or more (just picked 4" based off of higher end of some forecast totals around here) in the month of November 14 times on record (2018 makes 130th November on record) with most but not all of those 14 months have had that fall in one event.  Last time Harrisburg reported 4" or more in a day was back-to-back on November 10 & 11, 1987.  Fun stat about November 1987 is that it was Harrisburg's snowiest month of the season totaling 9.7" as December-January-February-March had 3.6", 9.6", 2.8", 1.0", respectively .  Third and final, for now, precipitable water values are looking to be north of 1" for most of us which is crazy high for around here when at least a wintry mix is involved.  With the right dynamics that is a ton of moisture for a deformation band to feed off of for some crazy rates if temps cooperate!

    Uhh...no FUN in that pal.  BOOO

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, canderson said:

    Eric Horst has a 5-8 swath for the majority of this forum. 2-5 elsewhere and .5-2 in the extreme SE.

    Edit: Can't get his tweet to embed. URL is: 

    
https://twitter.com/MUweather/status/1062751445450153984

     

    i need my eyes adjusted or lasik redone cause most of us live in 2-5ville (per map)

     

    or maybe im just a misfit......:P

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Just now, Voyager said:

    From past experiences IMOBY, by the time the deform swings through, the storm is too far north and if we catch some of it, it's not much of a help.

    Cant argue that for a second, and thats why I've been nervous for this event.  12z NAM nest shows less front end and more backend action.  Heartbreak city for some (me).  But parsing through the details still doesnt negate the fact that it is a rather nice kickoff to the winter for many of us in the region.  All bonus love for me. 

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    53 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

    Dry slotting was mentioned in this morning’s CTP disco as a potential limiter along with the uncertainty in p-types. It’s def something to keep an eye on especially in eastern PA given the surface running tightly up the coastline. Storm evolution actually progged as a more Miller B type evolution.. thus the initial front running shot of moderate-hvy precip and potential slot as the lows transfer. 

    There will then be a deform band that forms as the coastal low takes over and the aforementioned tight track up the coastline would favor the deform further back in the central counties. The damage could already be done up front though in the Sus valley as we will have supported cold air in place and I think we will have a robust front end that should wet bulb into a primarily frozen first part of the storm. If the coastal low track ends up being somewhat off the coast, then that deform might focus more towards the Sus Valley. 

    So ultimately I think our whole region is pretty well locked into our first sizeable winter event of the season incoming (at least advisory worthy). The degree of mixing plus eventual storm evolution and positioning of the deform band as the coastal takes over will determine if and where we see a much more significant impact. The potential is definitely there for a corridor in our region to get ripped with a big snowstorm. Some similarities to Nov 14-15, 1995... State College had 15” from that storm. I think the difference at least looking at the reanalysis maps is that one looked to be more of a pure coastal storm and perhaps was a bit colder. 

    Yeah, gotta look at the total storm evolution.  Like you stated, dryslot is and has been part of the equation.  Wraparound/deformation will likely pad totals from front end thumpage. but to Voyagers point, dryslots are storm killers....especially in southern tier.

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

    I think 8" of so is probably gonna be about the max with this baby...it really looks like about an 8 hour storm give or take followed by some drizzle. There just won't be enough time for amounts to get much above that. 

    spot on bud.  Agreed but hope were proven wrong.

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

    I didn't want to start his day off on a bad note. :) (Hi Steve!) 

    i should have put a :P emoji behind it to let him know i'm kidding....sorta.  I'd throw an 8" on his location as i think poconos and surrounding areas at elevation will spit out some good accum totals as well as they hold onto best position for CAD coupled w/ lift. 

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

    I miss @heavy_wx and his analysis in here. I never understood a word he said but i could always tell when we were getting the goods. 

    Random guess:

    • LNS: 2.5"
    • MDT: 3.1"
    • Canderson/Sauss: 4"
    • Blizzard of 93: 4.5"
    • UNV: 6"
    • MAG: 7"
    • Williamsport: 7.5"

    thats really a reasonable prediction.  You forgot the voyager jackpot though.  10"

    • Haha 1

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

    WNEP 16 is being EXTREMELY bullish with their forecast this morning. Double digits for all. Not sure I buy it, but these guys are usually quite conservative, so not sure what they're seeing.

    look at the Euro blizz posted.  We all know it weighs heavily for many mets.  

    Central PA Fall 2018

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Wow.  Gotta say trends are looking good for a sizeable start to winter.  6z GFS continues to show the cold holding a little stronger, although still not convinced its enough down here, i'd say the ridge and valley regions look mostly/all frozen.  Euro that blizz posted looks high end and if ever I want to call it king....this could be the time.  Critical thickness just is too far north/west for me to see this, but its close enough that dynamics can help overcome the marginal column (MBY)

    Will be a fun day. 

    Cant wait to hear all of the complaining at the office....

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