pasnownut

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Early December looks ripe. 

We “torch” next week and weekend - probably mid 50s Saturday. 

yeah, i saw turk day and beyond looks warmish before we reload.  All good.  This was one big bonus.

oh and .......when's the next one?

Great storm.  What a start.  

That pic of the log jam is just nuts.  I took the long way home last evening...no issues.  I got home to about 8" before compaction started, but would say that it went down to around 5-6'' by bedtime.

4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I never once saw one Penn Dot truck today. I'm not one to throw out complaints quickly but today was an abomination. Roads are still horrific.

I saw 2 in Etown. Both plows Up. 

30 minutes ago, canderson said:

Now in full zr in Harrisburg. I think ice accretion wil be a significant issue here tonight. 

That too is my worry. Just got done snow blowing the neighborhood and ice accretion in road was notable. If HRRR is right and we throw 1-2 on top of weighted limbs it could be a problem in addition to what we are already seeing on roadways. 

It is nice to see Voyager and WMSPT for joining in on the fun.  

I think I can safely say Enjoy EVERYONE!!

and yeah, we've just set a high bar for the winter that hasn't truely started yet....

10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

For once I can say "it's puking snow up here"...lol

And it is. Big, beautiful dendrites that are piling up rather quickly. I'm guessing, since I didn't measure yet, that we have between 1 and 2 inches down already. Also the temp dropped from 31f right before it started to 27f now. 

What's amazing is how cold this one is. Other November storms that I remember were warmer. I was outside doing a video segment in my backyard, and it felt more like January than November.

See.  I wouldnt lie to ya.  

3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Ouch! I meant to multiply those numbers by 2.  

like i said the other day.  Easier to overachieve for us....

now all snow again in ETown.  Coming down nicely.

winter storm warning for us now......yay....were part of the gang.....

small hills here in Etown have trucks just jammed.  Snow mixing w/ marbles...i mean pingers....very large pingers.

19 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think at this point it is not out of the realm that some people in the LSV stay all snow based on the lack of advance in the "sleet line" still south and east of Washington.  Once the forming coastal takes more influence it will push that line north but models have busted, even HRRR, in doing it too fast so any data after that bust is also suspect.  Just a thought.   The GFS depiction was a total failure for the Mid Atlantic. 

I too have been watching the march of the warm nose (as best i can) and agree that it seems that this may be one of those deals that we hang on and end as snizzle in the dryslot, and then see what (if any for me) wraparound does.  I'd be totally fine if we lose out on part 2 in trade for a non liquid part 1.  I sound like the hamburgler.

2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea no doubt there are other possible issues but I hate to make it too complicated.  I was not actually sure where Akron was until I just looked it up...just SE of Ephrata.  So I understand you have the intrusion on both fronts as to the south and east.

When we started looking for a home we were initially looking in Ephrata and were closing to putting an offer on a house in that Stoudtsburg Village (we have stayed there before) but the taxes were so out of this world we could not do it.

 

My Chiro. is next door to Stoudtsburg and looks at it from his backyard.  Yeah, we foot the tax bill around here alright (but i'm nowhere near alone and many locals have crazy @ss tax rates)....but were not gonna ruin the day by talkin bout that....lol. 

Like i said the other day, no matter the result, its a win of varying proportions for all that enjoy this stuff.  

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Still nothing here. Not even a furry. It's gotta be soon though. 

You should be able to smell it man.  Any minute for you.

12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

850's are still a good 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit below freezing for most so do not give up hope.  Seeing reports of 4" in Northern VA.

 

thats the money panel right there, but 700's is where w sleet/ZR.  just looked and still see them above 0 between 22z -6z.  Gotta get it done before then.  Thanks for sharing.  Feeling a bit better now. 

BTW it is just ripping outside.  As they say in the MA forum....roads caving.

7 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

That frontogensis with its upward motion doing the job down there. Dynamics help marginal events.


.

yep.  Thats how we pop down here.  Short duration slamjob before we lose the column.  It does give hope that points north of DC have already overachieved, and give hope that a slightly cooler column helps to win the day.

I hate to say it, but I'm just not sure how we get what the NAM HRRR are spitting out IMBY.  I see surface maps riddled w/ the wrong colors.  Those hi resers are supposed to pick up on that stuff, and I'm gonna call it a win if i can eek out 2-3" before transition.  from Ship W and N, yall should have a great event. Carry on.  Just trying to keep my local peeps from lookin for ledges.

Starting to pick up in intensity.  Whitening of landscape starting to commence....

Hi res HRRR is just a smackdown in central ridge/valley regions.  Taint or no taint.  Heck of a start to winter.

2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

And I think it is being buoyed by the nice back ends snows showing the ETA.  So rare those come to fruition but all short range models I have seen are showing 1-4".  

yeah, i saw that, but still makes me nervous as the dryslot is a notable one....but so is the reacharound....i mean wraparound.  hehe

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Jesus Christ

Would need to check initialization (how model starts w/ thermal profiles and all that stuff to see how much of it we can believe (and i dont have time to do that) , but if you just go off the trend....it is a good one..  Need to work while i view.  

dont look now, but both3/12 NAM puts much of LSV back in the game and has upped accums.  Nice tick SE w/ frozen.  N MD should be kinda giddy as well.

cut in 1/2 and I'm still happier than a clam.

all snow in Etown albeit light.

6 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

we have flakage in Harrisburg 

didnt need a snowstorm for that observation.

I see dendrites...

here we go....sleet n snow!!

Let the games begin!!