pasnownut

16 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I thought you were doing a play on words, but it certainly is appropriate.

Absolutely.  Just a crazy year.  Cant wait till it all becomes snow!!  

2 hours ago, pawatch said:

Earlier today up north. Sent to me from a friend.

hey.....he's sittin in my tree

cams showing Sweden hill and germania w/ what looks like 1-2".  Nice to see it.  

32 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I just got a picture from my friend who is at his hunting camp outside of lock haven. The ground is covered

http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/

FWIW 12k says yes to above for Saturday.  Boiled down, first appreciable flakes likely to fly for folks at elevation.  Enjoy

Holding the line says GFS.

Regardless where we end up in the next week, its definitely nice to see blues returning on the precip panels...no matter the verification. 

Gotta start somewhere.  Bonus rounds as we are safely out of October and cant be jinxed by November snows....lol

FWIW, the NAM shows it way west and more of a frontal boundary with no transfer, so pick your poison.  

I shared snow maps just for fun as its been a while. Dont want any to think its a forecast.  

Carry on..... 

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Can we keep the cold air in place? That's the billion snowshovel question. 

dynamic cooling during max qpf is how "we" snow with this one.....if we snow

lol

23 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

you're talking dirty today 

i was thinking the same. 

just call me potty mouth.....

Money shot incoming on the GFS.  CLASSIC early season track for next Tuesday....wowzers.  

verbatim, SE Pa on sideline, but the rest of the forum...enjoy. I'll be watching. 

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

my heart skipped at beat when i saw that 

dont look now but the 12z gfs shows a high elevation slushfest for NC pa this weekend.  Hybrid Miller B similarities w/ LP transfer.  Wouldnt be suprised to see some whitening of the ground during intense rates being advertised.  

anticipation still looms for the next few panels for next Tues.  

#consensus   its gonna snow

midweek cabin trip snowchasin.  Anyone wanna go.  hehe

56 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i can't remember the last time it rained 

i cant remember the last time it HASNT. 

Cant wish it away now, cause rain soon will turn to white gold........

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

ive read several winter forecasts stating almost the same, 150-200% of our normal. 

 

#believeitwheniseeit

I've not seen any of recent, but at this juncture a consensus of the smart folk saying it is all we can ask right.  

Being that the signals continue to grow at we approach mid November is great.  High end low to low end moderate nino is looking likely and for these parts a snow lovers delight pattern wise.  CPC's 11/4 update supports this

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf  (pg 25 CFS v2 graph for you cliffnote folks )

Now we just need AO/NAO/EPO and a couple other tellies to line up to help... and if momma nature doesn't run outta water from all she's been using lately......were set.

Nutter

FWIW, 0z GFS op says favored snow spots see a little flakage on the back side of the LP  passage.  Unfortunately verbatim, it wont happen during the storm as 850's are toast, and precip is gone by the time they become favorable.  as is the norm, I'd think that during more intense precip rates, that column might just support catpaws in lucky spots.

Regardless the outcome, its still fun to be taking about a nice system like this.  Pattern is close, and were it 4 weeks later, i'd be moderately giddy.  

25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The best weather news of the day was the latest Euro seasonal forecast that was issued today.

It shows a great winter pattern throughout the season. It features a ridge in the western US & a trough in the east, with signs of an active subtropical jet developing underneath.

thats just sexy talk right there.  Ive been away from the boards, but am liking what I came back to in everything from the short medium and long leads.  Baby steps gang but getting close enough to start thinking it could be the real deal.  

57 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Rain looks heavy in modeling.

yeah i see that, but am not sure we get the squally stuff that the gang is thinking.  Looked earlier and didnt see much to my untrained eye.

1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Indian Summer!!


.

happens every year.  Late friday looks to chill down again in the LSV.  I may see flakes Saturday.  

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Might hit 70 Thursday in the LSV. 

I'll be in the USV, so I'll deal w/ it no matter...

Hope everyone is enjoying the nice fall weather.  Headed to cabin this evening for the rest of the week to take in some tree time (bowhunting) and smell the leaves with family and friends.  Looks like a great weekend upcoming as well.  Enjoy all.  Hoping we can start trackin soon.  I'm ready.

Nut

2 hours ago, sauss06 said:

looks like rain from sometime Friday evening right through Monday. Wet and raw in the low 40s. 

The 2011 event, MDT official was 9.7. it had quite a cutoff too. South and east was much better then west. i only recorded 3". Wasn't someone from the weather channel in Harrisburg for this event?

And i agree with Mag, the rest of that winter sucked. We only had a handful of events with Saturday January 21st, 5.25" as the biggest. i only recorded 13.25 for the season.  

 

Saturday should make for an interesting time in Happy Valley. Glad i don't have tickets for that game, 330 kickoff

yep, the superstitious part of me wants no snow in Oct.  Its a curse.  Save it for when its supposed to snow.

I can remember my buds going up to the poconos to rip around on sleds for an evening....just to say they rode before Halloween.  I then remember like 3 months later still waiting for my first ride wishing i'da went with them as it might have been my only chance to ride that year..... bum mer!

I'll tell you what.  Glad I'm a couple years past dressup for haloween. 

534 thicknesszzz traversing rt 6 w/ 540's south of the MD line is going to make for some cold trick n treatin....

as that northern vort is lagging far enough behind to not help the weekend catpaw potential for most (save the laurels and N mountains like Meteo Mag alluded to), the system on its heels-Tues (if you were rooting on snow) would potentially show some surprises.  Mind you this is just boredom and extrapolating verbatim happy hour GooFuS runs for the heck of it but it shows a coastal transfer with enough cold to get mood flakes on the backside for central and NE locals.

No matter how the evolution pans out, its fun to be surfin model runs again.  Looks active.

24 minutes ago, pawatch said:

I'm interested to see what the weather brings this winter after such a wet summer. Will it be wet/dry winter....

Are we in El Niño weather pattern?

El nino has 75% likelihood of verifying.

26 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Dog gets sprayed by a skunk at 9pm, not sure i'll get the smell out of my nasal passages anytime soon, PHUCK 

baking soda dawn soap.  like 3x.  been there did that. 

it SUUCCKKKKS.......

just like my Eagles!!    #soreloseriam

2 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Went on a short drive and it is snowing on top of Wopsy Mountain just above town a little while ago. My house is around 1300' and mangled flakes started past 1500' with a full transition after 2000'. Start of a dusting and 34ºF and wind driven big snowflakes at the top (a tad above 2400'). That's about a 5 mile drive up from my house. 511 cams showing a solid coating on the US 219 and 22 corridors in Cambria County.

Now mixing here since I've gotten back and wind is howling. 

 

My wife told me that there were flakes missing in (friends were posting on FB) during backend of frontal passage.  Of course flood lights went on and I kept getting up during every 10 min. looking out the window for first catpaw confirmation....I saw none.  

Its nice to know I'm not alone with my passion for snow.  Y'all make me feel......well......normal (ish). 

looks like late november weather is here for the week.  Flakes are flying and a couple chances at ground whiteners in the typical spots.  

Enjoy your Sunday gang.  Lots to do.....winters coming !!