pasnownut

20 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I would never leave this sub-forum when winter comes around. It's still my home. Even when I'm not getting impacted, I have a ton of family and friends who are and you know I'll be getting lambasted with texts asking what's happening with (insert storm date here) lol. 

Tumbleweeds are a little more of an issue just to my north btw, but my god the dust out here is crazy. Had a front blow through Sunday with 50 mph wind gusts. Visibility went from 10 SM to like 2 in a few minutes. 

Yeah, once the "go to" weather guy.....always the go to weather guy.  

I HATE dust, so you'll likely never get a visit from me....lol

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Something that will need to be watched closely is the strength of the forecasted confluence to the north. There's been times in the past where the medium range confluence pattern is progged too strong initially, which is why some storms tend to draw north as we inch closer to prime time. Also, a slightly more energized southern wave is still possible as is something else we've seen adjust in the short term. There's still so much time with multiple moving pieces to sort out, there's no way anyone should be gunning on any one particular outcome. Now, ensemble trends were a bit more boo than bite last night with the general strength in the confluence to the north, but mid-week will be the time frame where models will start getting a better handle of both pieces. If ensembles are squashing the southern wave by Wednesday still, then it's likely the region will have a hard time getting a worthy event. There's not much change that needs to occur for this to trend better. 

Boy am i glad you still "hang out" with us.  Hope your enjoying the tumbleweeds bud .

Yeah once inside 96, start adding weight to Ops over Ens. 

This trackin stuff is fun, and ahead of schedule for me, so its all good no matter who gets what.  I know my yard is no snow magnet (sorry snowmagnet). 

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I slept in this morning. Woke up to a roller coaster in here. Probably going to be that way for another day or two before we can safely lock in win or fail. Of course, JI will wake up shortly and cancel the rest of winter. Maybe even next winter. 

Correct.  We went from an 18z cutter to a 6z suppessor...in 12hours.  If your going to parse through every op run (and I do....and i enjoy it), one can only can look for trends and general storm track w/ op runs at this lead.  

29 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

It’s going to be a looonnng week

yep.  6z's now bring suppression depression into the mix when last evening we were cutting....

so many hazzards to this sport.  Gut says too early in season for this system to be suppressed so far south.  I was/am more worried about too far NW track.  Will be fun to watch.

One good takeaway is warmup continues to look less ominous.  Happy Sunday all!

Nut

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I think most of us in CTP could live with this 18z GFS result next weekend!

The track is far from settled, but I like where we sit right now. 

On to the 0z runs tonight !

MA forum is somewhat in a tizzy, but vs 12z, this was a step in the right direction.  First show of a transfer to the coast, and mid levels were better IMO.  Much work to be done, but at a week out....plenty of time.

4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Animate the 18z GFS really fast, it looks good. Decent chance for a 12-24" storm. 

Im sorry pal....but sometimes...........

You should change your name to AlternateUniverse

look at mid levels.  Notably colder look at 500/700 vs 12z.  Good enough for now.

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Let's be honest folks. The gfs run sucks. Primary gets too far north and secondary is too close to the coast. That's a lot more rain than snow. 

your right Bob, but its better than 12z and thats a step in the right direction for the GFS

and...........

we jump

due east 

Im not sure whats not to like here.  (not that this is the final evolution), but verbatim, I'd think this may turn out pretty nice

look at the differences at 850 at 186.  sheesh.  colder look and may help

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Not there yet on weatherbell but the high placement is good and looks as if CAD is firmly entrenched. Would probably be a good end thump at least.

yeah you could see a slightly better signal early on.  

500 is closed off at 180 and pumping the ridge out ahead.  hmm

51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z EPS took a good step up in snow amounts for next weekend’s snow potential, especially for the LSV.

There are several EPS ensemble members that provide great snow hits for CTP, with the best possible jackpot area being the southern half of PA.

There are still a cluster of EPS ensemble members showing nothing for our region, & some still have minimal amounts that probably reflect cutter or inland storm tracks.

The Ops will continue to shift around the next few days. The potential is certainly there for a memorable Early December snow storm for CTP.

 

Good to hear and agree.  Op runs are just for fun at this juncture and should be taken with a grain of salt.  Consensus and early track is all we really can take away from this lead time.  Ens runs till about 5 days then we can start adding weight to the Op runs.

It sure is easy to wanna believe though.  No two ways about it.

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Agreed GFS now goes snow to rain for us but an improvement. Long ways away.  let’s hope the trends go favorable next week. 

And the Euro is well south if the GFS  and gives DC and south a beatdown.  Fv3 was decent (although I didn’t look hard as I was doing brakes and rotors in wives SUV.). Point is a notable storm continues to look more likely. All we can hope for at this juncture. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Fv3 tries to cut but gets forced under.  Like seeing that. A full on cut like gfs op is unlikely imo. 

and a compromise of the 2 would make many happy.  

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

4 days is a long time...lol I know it's gonna get tougher for me to even out my excitement if even for the next TWO days if we get model runs like we did yesterday...(I almost wish that, if it's going to fail, that that shows up sooner rather than later! Because the longer ya keep getting these runs...the tougher it is to get out of the rabbit hole. Not to mention it's an El Nino year (if we were in a nina and saw these same runs, I would trust absolutely nothing--not after last year, lol) So we watch...and wage the battle of tempering our excitement for now!

snowmagnet said nothing different than many others here.  There is a general sense of excitement for a nice start to met winter, so enthusiasm is warranted.  I'm sure most can sense the tone in many posts.  It will tone down as we enter snow mode, but discussing as we are in 7 day leads, is fine......for now.  

edit - and if we bust, we are still doing what we love and many come here for.  The thrill of the chase.

and i see the police are entering the building in the main thread.  Makes me giggle.  Love how some post and get "away" with things and others get straight up handcuffs. 

It will be a bumpy ride to snowville this week.  

15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

In a Nina, snow and the MA is like magnetic repulsion.

or fatal attraction..........

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

id love to see snow with christmas lights on.....please let this happen....i would be happy with 6-8

if the continued muted look of the warmup continues, i'd think whatever your normal %'s are, that they might rise a bit.  Will be interesting to see what the next week or so shows regarding the evolution of this warmup.

19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS for next weekend’s potential snow storm looks a lot like the great 2009 December storm that hit a week or so before Christmas!

This is the Kuchera ratio snow map from the 6z GFS.

This should be a great week of tracking!

 

as soon as i saw that map....i had a feeling you'd be "sharing".....:)

Stock up on the coffee....gonna be a long week as the consensus has been growing for this storm to be a legit threat....and sizable as well.

Heeerrrreeweeegooooooo 

39 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not necessarily. With the 500's rotating down with a closed low you have the possibility of that surface low stalling, if not retrograding, waiting for the upper levels to catch up to it. Really wouldn't take too much tweaking at this point to have that become another major hit for portions of our region.

Looking back over it again, I can see your point and how a retrograde solution would be possible and panels could support that option.  If that happened it would be a rare occurrence, but would be pretty cool to see a follow up wave lay down the goods.  Snow cover from SC all the way to Maine.  Not bad for week 1 of true winter.

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah pretty interesting look on the GFS with that NS energy rotating down. Have to watch and see how this evolves on future runs. 

 

would seemingly be a quick hitter as verbatim its just a piece left behind from main show, and while possible, would have to pop rather quickly to make much happen.  I'm sure the SE crew would be glad to see it all the same.

and looking at Ens guidance at 500 says the warmup is a rather muted/mundane one.

51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And the GFS pops another coastal a day-day and a half later off of Hatteras with the closed upper low passage. Doesn't impact up here though it does throw snow into eastern VA. Have seen this solution multiple times over the last few days on different ensembles and even the EPS control had a run with this scenario impacting up in the DC/Balt region. Maybe there is some legs to this double low solution?

Saw that and was wondering about that one as well.  Will be interesting to see if it continues to pop on future runs.  6z keeping hope alive.

Pretty cool to turn the calendar to day 1 of real tracking season (for me anyway) and to be looking at what now is a legit MA mauler.  

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Compared to previous runs, there is also more pronounced ridging over GL, and a stronger, more consolidated piece of the PV underneath. Pretty impressive.

Yeah. Nothing to complain about there.