pasnownut

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd post my thoughts on the gfs but I'm busy chasing bunnies in the yard. 

or did you get stuck heading down the rabbit hole?

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

the confluence is weaker on the 12z gfs it seems

a little bit.  Should help in next few panels.

at 108 more consilidated precip (but better looking IMO) to NW side, and seemingly a tick N....so far

20 minutes ago, dtk said:

FV3-based GEFS will not be implemented until early FY 2020 (probably Q2...e.g. about Jan 2020).  Some of this is driven by human and compute resources as there is a requirement for a 30 year reforecast for calibration before implementation.

Definitely 2017.  All official retrospectives and real-time experiment use the Lin-type GFDL MP scheme.

Thanks for the clarification.

56 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

One thing for certain, your enthusiasm always keeps me hopeful.

With setups like this, i always think we have a chance. Didn't someone once say, systems like this always move north? whats 50-100 miles among friends right?   

Yeah, blizz is the shizz.  Being the other resident snow whacko, its good to be along side him.

Yes, storms like this will often do the north jog Ao@ 2-3 day leads, so we have time with this.  I am not YET rooting it north, as if it starts now, you'll see too far W solutions start showing up and tainting our precious white gold potential.  Just look for subtle changes in confluence, 500 flow pattern, tilt axis, ridging etc. 

Thats the way we can baby step our way into a doozy.

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think he meant they can't do it now while also working on the Fv3 rollout. They will shift to that once the Fv3 goes live. That was my take. 

I cant find it, but that makes sense.  Just remember something about manpower and my being a smart@ss saying was it "too much math".  

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

A met posted that the GEFS will be converted over to FV# sometime next year. Until then it is being run off the current programming.

actually check that.  Hi risk and i were discussing the other day and he said that it is too big an undertaking and they dont have the resources to convert the GEFS to Fv3.  I think you'll have a new Op to stare at w/ same old GEFS for longer range viewing.  I'll dig back through my posts and see if i can find it.  Need more coffee/dramamine first.

Seeing Sanchez back in the huddle for you guys has to be surreal. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

14-13 at the half... Redskins get the ball to start the 2nd half 

Sucks that McCoy went out as I like him...and I’m an eagles fan. 

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, we see this roller coaster with most east coast storms. Many of our better storms over the years have gone through these weather model ups & downs, before ending up delivering the snow.

I think this is far from over, especially for those of us south of I -80.

The 18z GFS & GEFS were a step in the right direction.

If we can see a continuation with overnights it will be a big confidence boost as right now it’s just 1 run and not a trend.  That said I agree and feel that the NS energy will not be as strong as modeled and will correct to a solution that is better for us. 

47 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

we've all seen this dog and pony show before! 

Thankfully yes but GFS is either way wrong or heartbreak hotel. 

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Close enough. Now it's easy. Toss the old crusty gfs, hug the CMC, and use the FV3 as support for the eventual CMC solution verifying. Too easy man. 

Preach it brother...

CMC snowmap is akin to a pic of your favorite porn star that is signed “all my love”.  

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

During a La NIna I give preference to the GFS on the handling of the NS over the Euro. With a El Nino that is reversed as the GFS has quite often over played the strength of the NS. So in other words, I am looking more towards the Euro on this upcoming storm.

#keepingfaithalive

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ahh I see that...yea I think I was ahead of you already on the panels... plus I was seeing the lower heights over the northeast and that 50/50 and thinking...even if its weaker all those vorts up in canada are going to continue to dig into new england in that look.  We need that whole situation to relax and back off!  But... that isn't out of the question at this range.  

well at least warmer solutions are less of a worry.  Just trying to stay positive....lol

well, the if the GFS biases come into play, it just did a great job of "loosing the storm" for us, and has a lot of "coming back" to do.

Good grief.

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Know people are concentrating on what is occurring in the NE but I myself am putting some focus with what we are seeing in regards to the upper portion of the trough dropping down in the NW. What we are seeing this run is a better drop where it is coming in behind the shortwave in the southwest vs. over top or in front on previous runs. This should create a deeper trough which should influence the confluence and flow we are seeing in the NE. With a deeper drop we should see a flatter flow and the confluence lifted somewhat in the NE.

 

I can see how that could evolve, but verbatim, its a southern slider.  To your point, yes a few runs from now this correction could give us what we need for it to gain latitude.

IMO 50/50 is party spoiler

Just now, stormtracker said:

I hope I'm wrong so I can bump troll myself. 

so do i....

Just now, stormtracker said:

that nrn stream wave is going to screw us again on this run.  

yep.  So far things are looking a little south, but money panels still to come.  

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This. Can't worry about the details if the storm track takes ya completely out of the game. 

500/700 looks flatter at 102.

3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Snow Shower activity increased (from what I can see) for Wednesday. I do not like where the Shortwave is coming ashore out west.. we will see.

 

FWIW @ 84 its about 150 miles NE of 6z location.

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Climatology for early Dec says your beliefs are justified. Not to say HECS dont happen still but I'm right there with you.

said that yesterday, so add a +1 to your camp.

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The EPS at 0z improved very much from the 12z run yesterday. The mean snow amount & the low locations of most of the EPS ensemble members improved as well. 

We are still very much in the game with 6 days still to go !

CMC looked decent as well.  Gonna be a long week for sure as this one looks to be a formidable early season event for the lucky ones in the bullseye.  Seeing the GFS camp head so far south is concerning, but having the King/CMC on our side is not bad at this juncture.

16 minutes ago, canderson said:

I avoid that subforum like the plague, but that’s funny.

Necessary evil for me.

its where i have to go for my weather analysis fix.  We can rock it pretty well in here, but just not as frequently. 

41 minutes ago, canderson said:

Recent history and the calendar push hard against a suppressed system. I guess it can happen but it’d be against the norm and highly unusual. 

Did you read my post in the MA forum....its like were inside each others brain.....

cant agree more.