pasnownut

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The cfs continues to advertise a sudden flip to high lat blocking and eastern trough around Jan 15.  It flipped about a week ago to the euro seasonal camp and has only become more adamant since. I know it's the cfs but it was the last holdout with the euro U.K. and jamstec all advertising a similar longwave pattern.  

I know long range guidance is very erratic and should be taken with skepticism but when all the guidance is in such good agreement AND more importantly fits the analog pattern evolution very well I think there is reason to believe it is likely on the right track.  Additionally the PV continues to be weak. For the next 2 weeks it's mostly configured in ways that aren't good for us but keep that thing weak and beaten around and it can quickly and easily morph into a good pattern if blocking develops. So we wait with high expectations that things improve dramatically soon. 

Until then my expectations are low. There is a very small window right around Xmas behind the big bomb cutter. The following wave could get under us if it times up. But that's something that won't resolve until a few days out at best. 

The look does get ambiguous but still generally hostile towards New Years. I'm not that optimistic until towards the 10th on. Not just because of current guidance. Pretty much all the analogs except 1964 were a barren wasteland for snow the first two weeks on January. The were clippers in early 2003 and 2010 and that was it. 1966, 1969, 1978, 1987 all had no snow until around January 20th. It's amazing how consistent the analogs were and this year is followed the pattern so expectations should be low until mid January to avoid disappointment. That doesn't mean a fluke cannot happen but I'm not holding my breath. 

One note on the pattern after. I am seeing posts lamenting the destruction of cold in our source regions. First of all snowcover up there won't be significantly impacted. The average temps are so cold that even a +10 anomaly won't melt the snowpack in most cases.  It's actually going to be snowy in some places north of us during this period. And once we get to mid January we won't need anomalous cold to get snow. Air that's +5 up in Canada will be fine for our purposes if we get a consistent nw flow. We just need to get the trough out of the PAC NW and get our flow originating from northern Canada and not the Pacific. Many of our snowiest periods weren't our coldest. Usually extreme cold is dry. Blocking patterns typically aren't extreme cold ones but once we get past New Years that's fine, get the storm track suppressed south of us and our flow from the north and roll the dice. 

Thats a great reminder regarding the pos anomalies that we would see north of us. 

Some will think were in trouble but in Jan/Feb its not as big a deal and as you said it will be likely "cold enough" for it to snow.  

While i think your right that it may take from mid Jan onwards, I'd think that by this time next week, we may be seeing 10 day maps that get things looking more interesting.  Its no shutout pattern, so for me, thats a win in and of itself.  Transient is fine.

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. I've had some great discussions with Iso over the years. He brings a comprehensive viewpoint that is unmatched on the board. I (and most regular posters) and very regional focused. Iso brings huge flavor to the big picture. 

When the Pac takes a dump on us it's usually stubborn to relinquish its stranglehold. Holiday week will likely be a transitional week at best and in typical MA fashion we'll have to wait our turn while the NE gets a good event first. Totally fine if that happens again as long as the pattern improves to something serviceable before the year is done. 

Seeing that ISO is still holding the line, is great and lends credence to our SSW convo that some have been chatting about.  Looking like we should see the effects as we head towards the New Year, and per his read, he things the SE ridge is being overmodeled.  Even if we get zonal pattern, it surely isnt a horrible base state to have something NS drop in to pay a visit.  Thats how i see it anyway.

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Considering models had yesterday's/ today's storm a 980s bomb cutting way west of us at day 6-8 only to morph into weak 1012 low with coastal redevelopment  it wouldn't surprise me.  No shortage of coastals this season and that's a good thing no doubt . Only a matter of time before one is white .

Very true.  We've seemingly got the STJ working, just need the canooks to get their sh!t together and we'll be doing just fine.  Overnights have taken a slightly more workable look in the way out there range.  Seeing that cold dumping into the west just hurts when we finally have all players showing up.  Just need them to play nice and it could be a really nice time here in the east.  

17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

He's talking about wasting the next 4 weeks, which takes us to mid Jan towards Feb, where temps start rising faster than a jack rabbit on a date.

I know what he’s talking about but mid Jan is no time to be discussing “wasted snow”. That’s all. Jack rabbit in a date. I like that one. Lol

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If that's the case then winter is toast.  We are going to waste the majority of low sun angle and prime season.

that IS a rather bold statement, and one I'm not sure why you are saying.....

I cant believe your suggesting the sun angle talk in mid december...thats like Weenie Of The Year material right there.

@Bob Chill thx Bob.  Anxious to see how this SSW evolves, and agree that it has been a rarity to see it work into guidance.  Just sounds like this one might be the real deal.  fwiw, like you, psu and others, I'm nowhere near throwin any towels in, but last week of dec looks not so festive, and as you've been touting.  Not a "good" call, but a nice one by you.  I thought i saw enough to find a way out, and guess I was blinded by the Christmas spirit (or spirits...or something).  Long ago we knew December was a bonus month for any white gold, so I'll just chase the pill w/ some spiked eggnog, and like i suggested in the Cent pa thread, I think in a week (or so), we'll be back to better looks on guidance.  

As I'm looking for the silver lining, I've always been intrigued by the SSW, and its affects, I'm wondering if the current episode (that seems to have legs) might be able to help to get us back to a more favorable look, or further enhance the effects of the Nino, but my fear is that it might take till late Jan, as i've read that its typically a 30ish day lag time for downwelling to occur at levels we want to look at.  IF not a full blown SSW, my wonder is that even if its just a peturbation, could that be enough to dislodge the cold and get this party started sooner than later.  Thoughts?

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Way way way too early to be saying that.  I’m too lazy to go back and look but if I remember correctly most of the winter outlooks called for an AN December, flip in January, and rocking in February.  I know people PANIC here when its not snowing everyday in December and considering our history of failures here, a backloaded winter is not something you want to pin your hopes on, but it seems like so far, this winter is going as forecasted.

The models probably rushed the epic pattern that showed up in the weeklies for the end of December into January...my guess says that verifies mid to late January onwards.  Then tracking begins. 

We know the next 4 weeks are going to suck...might as well accept that and look for the (hopefully) positive changes that will show up.

yeah, was just reminding myself that a few weeks back back half of December was looking warm, and that surely seems to be gaining traction. 

Even though we recently were teased w/ better LR looks, that surely has eroded, so hopefully once to Christmas, we can start seeing 500mb maps start to match up in the extended.  Hate to say it, but Bob sniffed this rat out.  Didn't want to believe him, but it is what it is. Looking like a good call. 

The optimist in me says this week isnt horrid, so lets get through it and see where we go from there.  (By horrid, i mean no 70's).  Yes we may likely be on the wrong side of storms, but while i want snow....i HATE anomalous warmth around the holidays.

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Do you think most of CTP has the chance to change over to snow or just a portion of the area ?

looks to me like NE/poconos is best spots to see the snow from tomorrows event. Meso's like that region most, but some upslope will also be seen back in the laurels/cent mountains at elevation.

I hope it happens for those that can get it, because things have turned rather scroogish beyond next week. Lets just say that 500MB maps have colors in all the wrong places.  Too far out to get worried, but I'm starting to worry.

1 hour ago, Atomixwx said:

I got you...

4 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

It actually looks like a little something on the 23rd sneaking in

the way i look at it, when things "looked" great.....we got jack.

So now that things look boring/mundane, lets look for something and see where we go.

Pattern isn't ripe for snow, but its not a shut the shades deal either.  More of a see/saw.....yee/haw kinda deal till we near Christmas.  

Gut says that a week from now, we may be sending the dogs out to track.  Sure hope so.  IF...big if....we can get a zonal/split flow kinda deal like some OP/Ens guidance has hinted at, it could be fun as we are approaching peak snow climo, so its "easier" for it to snow round these here parts. 

Headed on the road to play santa to clients, so someone find something for us to gaze at today.  

Nut

26 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

so, nut says its gonna snow for Christmas..................At least thats how i read it 

my work is done................

and your soooo easy.

Since there's not much to talk about, I'll just throw this out there to give the Christmas miracle a little hope....

Just use your imagination....and a little meteo madness that most of us supposedly come here for....and draw your own conclusions.

Purely for fun

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It doesn’t look like it. We need something in the 21st-23rd window to flush out the airmass if we want cold air around. It’s very possible that the event we’re hoping for ends up being that. There’s a reason that we do better as good patterns break down or reload rather than as they arrive. But if it’s a good track, we don’t need excessive help, just some modified polar air brought in from some northern stream front.

Was just going to respond until i read a little further below and saw this.  Yeah its more likely to help tweak the NS upper air pattern for what happens beyond as we approach Christmas.

Been bouncing around on the ops/Ens and have moved back another step from the ledge.  EPS bias just needed to have a little more time to adjust....I hope.  Even the Op runs way out are starting to take the look of overrunning.  Just fine by me.  Reasonable progression and NO TORCH FOR CHRISTMAS.  Win win for me.

Verbatim, the 6z GFS isnt far from stuffing stockings w/ snow for N/W locals. 

58 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its not the worst look, but not what I am hoping to see 2 weeks down the line.

I mostly was just being sarcastic.

I get it, but in the upcoming pattern, we dont need a big storm popping up for days and days to back into something.

For referenece....how'd the last storm work out for us.  Footballs were being spiked by some way way out there (i say that tongue n cheek), but in reality we all got sucked in a bit.  Sneaky possible surprise should be the theme for the lead up to Christmas.  Thats all i'm saying.

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not only isn't it right, it's just not fair. I mean...we don't get 40 degree days in July. 

Couldn't agree more.

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah that's a great look at the end on the 12z GEFS. Looks a lot like the EPS!

yeah, look at the GEFS if you need a tug away from the ledge.  Definately not a horrible look.  Split stream overrunning kinda deal.  Just fine by me

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

It's a gradual transition...whether a few weeks or years who knows 

While there is nothing major to talk about for the next week, at least it’s no toaster bath look either. Something can sneak up on us. I’ll take it...for now. 

33 minutes ago, Allisong said:

I’m going to be st Downtown Crown today. Still out on Thursday? Or do they have some now? Thanks!

@Scraff i'm a closet Caps fan as I live 30 min from Hershey and like the Bears.

I'd drink this in a heartbeat.  Get up here to Hershey and get them to push this stuff.  I'm mean good luck trying, but it might be worth it.  I see lots of Caps jerseys at the Bears games (was there last week).

42 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

hey now...........we may have to change your name to Santa 

lol.  I may have made progress on the belly and the grey a bit, but I've got a lot of work to do. 

Mind you this was merely for fun, and to just cast a bit of "its gonna be ok" into the warmish period coming up, as it looks to be transient and a "no need for toasters" kinda warmup. 

You guys talking about 2015 made me start to twitch/tick all over again.  Hope i never relive a Christmas like that in PA.  It's just not right.

No shorts.....please.  Breaking all the rules and posting an op run for xmas eve to keep hope alive.  The phrase "right where we want it" comes to mind, but after last weekend, NC stole that one from us.  No matter....I'm dreamin.....

30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another rookie-ish question...now does a tough in the east always mean storms ride up the coast instead of OTS? (of course I would assume that they can still cut in such a setup?)

It depends on the “tilt”, curve or sharpness of the trough.  You want to be above or left of the trough arm as it comes up the coast. Position is critical 

44 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

You guys finally wore on me lol...infectious. Hoping we all get a few flakes in the air from it before the rainstorm Friday night.

Well.......

I’ll be d@mned. 

35 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Sneaky light snow possible Wed night to Thurs morning...not much...but something lol.

#beggars...............

18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably pretty boring without some serious luck. But hopefully around or just after Xmas we are back in business.

We've started off rather quickly, so a relax to a reload is fine.  better now than early Jan when peak climo would be "wasted".

Looks like AN but no sustained torch.  No biggie.