pasnownut

14 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Just had my 9 year.

We forgot until day of and didn't do anything.

I'll take that over a snowlover.

hint....thats a great way to not make it to 10.  

alright....i'm done playing.  Back to winter storm gonnasnowlotsa...

6 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

no date i'm betting

hahaha

me neither........but i've been married for 25 years.  Guess thats why I spend half of my life (in winter) starting at sexy maps.

12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

d8

Yep.  Got anything better to look at in the next 5 days?

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Euro looks great 8 days away



.

why yes......

yes it does.  Just 197 hours away from a flush _hit 

(leaves all options open)

My nooner takeaway....

IF you take a blend of GFS and EURO, its still a decent track, which is all i worry about right now.  

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I think we need Mappys description

 

Just read your last post and agree wholeheartedly.  Lots of options, but lots of possible hits. 

While its pure craziness to parse op runs at 198hours, like stated many times, its why many are here...so long as you dont live and die by each run (and post like it).  Level heads and keep it Chill (see what I did there Bob). 

Fun times ahead....

3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

It all comes down to the positioning of the northern short waves and the PV....need to time it where the low comes up the coast right after the front that provides the cold air....

IF that HP is as big as modeled, no doubt that will play into CAD and front end thumpage potential.

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kuchera:

10:1

If these need to be moved into the Digital Snow Thread, so be it. 

I have a tent that you could move them into.....

2 hours ago, dallen7908 said:

Man that H is in a hurry to move out; 1035H north of Bermuda as precipitation reaches DC; 

If its 1041, its not just gonna scoot skidaddle outta here.  I'd just focus on track at this juncture, and on an op run, thats not very narrow in scope.  Looks to be a doozy nontheless.  verbatim, I'd take the GFS track an climo and see what falls where.  Its just 1 run in way out there land.   

1 hour ago, paweather said:

well dang it the high slid off to slow for that LP. It is definitely still a signal for next weekend. 

Watch the rest of the GFS run.  That storm track would absolutely crush most of this subforum.  HP is big and is there, and likely would be undermodeled for CAD signal if it is at 1041mb.  Yes moves unfavorably (not sure i buy that move) to more of an easterly fetch, but at 700 we are fine, and only lower levels are in trouble.  500 evolution is not a great look, but plenty of time for this to change. 

FWIW GEFS looks notably different (better) at 500 so, i'd hang my little hat on it for now...

However the outcome, this looks like one to watch.

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

  ha!    There is no way (in terms of manpower and computer resources)  to do the complete set of retrospective testing and evaluation that needs to be done (much of the past 3 years were rerun with the FV3GFS and assessed as part of the validation) for both the GFS and GEFS systems concurrently.

thanks for the explanation.  I figured it quite an undertaking.  

Gotta love parsing over 2156 hour panels of op runs.  

Be that as it may, the Euro stepped in a better direction to me. 

17 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

        correct.     There will be no change to the GEFS when the FV3GFS replaces the GFS in operations.

Why wouldn't they want to incorporate and updates into the current GEFS.  Too much math?  j/k

16 minutes ago, mappy said:

@WxUSAF is to blame

Fv3 is to blame....

sweet mother of all things holy....

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You and me both.  I mean, not at the same time though. I like you and all, but...

who goes first......... 

49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Do you know how the Fv3 switch will impact the GEFS?  Are they switching the ensemble system over, if so how?  Resolution changes?  Just curious if you have any info on that.  GEFS is in desperate need of an upgrade. 

unless it shows a widespread 12+"...then steady as she goes.

That's a good question btw, i was wondering when the transition would occur. 

42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

FV3 is the perfect track/evolution for the d9-10 deal. I'll be hugging the 12z run unless the euro ups the ante. 

saw that.  Gotta love the look...even if only 8 days out.  Verbatim that's a doozy.

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Next week looks very interesting for the possibility of 2 snow events.

The first one could bring a low end snow event around Tuesday or Wednesday.

There is the chance of a moderate to high end snow event next weekend.

The 0z Euro & EPS are becoming more interested in these events with each run!

looked a bit last night and yes, next week has my interest.  Left cabin yesterday w/ 8-10 still on the ground and had 2" between monday night and yesterday (snowing lightly when we left before lunch).  Hoping we get some more before we may thaw.

Nut

Lots to be thankful for today.

Happy Thanksgiving all.

Headed to cabin tomorrow (going early) as there was approx 12 to 15" OTG on top earlier this week, and I've got shoveling/plowing to do before the gang gets there.  

Not sure how much ice we have Saturday, but it appears that a few hours of slickness is possible before the cold is scoured out.  Also looks like after the Sunday/Monday system, we may have some fun to talk about.  

See yall later next week.

Nut

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Did you see the control run? A low at day 12 running up the coast at 986 over OC, 981 over the Delaware bay and 977 over central Jersey? Shift that 100 miles east and then take our chances with the temps. 

Yep. Saw that.  Looks tasty and plenty of time for things to trend more favorably.  

Just playing around on the pivitol maps and found this map.  Not something youll often see but it was amusing to me.

west wind much?

9 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

It looks to warm up Sunday/Monday after Thanksgiving when another system comes through. Looks to me to be high 40s and rain. Just in time for first day of rifle season

fog....ughh.  hunters delight....not

if i could trust the GFS at distance, it looks like tuesday of rifle gets colder/snow.  with the snow OTG up there now, i think it will likely be white for the hunters no matter.  Hearing that bear hunters are having trouble w/ the deep snowpack.  Pack it down for me boys....i'm getting old. 

Happy Sunday and Turk week everyone!

8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, the northern crew has the best chance, but I wouldn’t rule out some light snow for the LSV as well by Tuesday am.

Thanksgiving & Friday am look frigid !

Then, towards the end of the month into the first week of December we have a good chance for more winter storms. The pattern has great potential for snow chances! 

Was hunting yesterday and didnt get to look, but fair to say, you've got my interest.  I was anticipating a warmup post turk day, but hey, I'll deal w/ cold/snow.  I can do it :).

17 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Truth! I'm trying to recall a storm where virtually the entire subforum received a 6"-12" snowfall. Doesn't happen often for sure.

Yeah this was a big winner just by how everyone cashed in.

16 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Pennlive reporting the 8.3" as a record. I like records, extremes etc..................how many more can we break this year 

 

i seriously think we dodged a bullet. Had the temperature not risen, that freezing rain/sleet would have been hell this morning. It would have been like the V-day storm in 06 or 07 (can't remember) or worse. i know for certain i would have lost power. 

Yeah i agree.  When we went to bed, i told my wife the same thing.  mid 30's saved us a lot of headache overnight/morning commute.

Plus, it will give us time to get "ready" for the next one.  Crazy pics we've been seeing.