pasnownut

5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Had snow showers up here on the Tug yesterday. Slipped on ice at noon today...and lake effect snow expected this weekend.

Winter is coming!

 

I saw  montague cams had some frostings on the ground as well.  I hope you guys gett pummeled as well.  Miss sledding up there.  May make a trip.  Have a bunch of friends that still go.  

first flakes reported at the cabin (from a friend).  also Potter got their first flakes.

http://www.swedenhillsnocam.com/

Have a great Thursday!

7 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I think a warm November is exactly what we need for a memorable winter.

And then we just pray that the flip...............

doesn't flop!

31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like a few snowflakes and sleet pellets were trying to mix in across the Laurels.  Almost time for winter!

Saw that on radar. NEPA also might have pulled off a few cat paws as well. 

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air. 

but too far west and we may play on the wrong side of the line sometimes as the trough axis may be too far west.  Oh the horrors.

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'd call that probably a weak -nao overall in the means. Looks stronger but east based in December. You don't get low pressures and low heights over NL in a strong -NAO. The Aleutian low appears to stay west enough to not flood north america with PAC air. 

Just change that to more of a basin wide/west and lock er up!!

19 minutes ago, frd said:

Hey , have you seen the latest SSTs in time progression in the Gulf Of Alaska and the general area West and Southwest of Alaska proper ?

Getitng warmer and warmer and maybe we get a + PDO afterall (  to a degree )

Not to mention , it seems like all the palyers on a global scale are re-organizing and starting to show what might be see later in the cold season .  

I like what I see and maybe December will be more traditional again in terms of winter weather  and not 80 degrees and playing hacky sack, and  Frisbee  in the back yard    :-)    

 

 

I briefly looked the other day.  Yes, hoping the stubborn GOA low is not a player this year and is replaced by a ridge w/ a bit of cross polar flow.  Is that asking too much??  

16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I really like the consistant PNA ridge it shows. We have seen a bad Pacific ruin our chances so many times. Fingers crossed.... no red flags so far for the winter.

Agreed.  Pac drives the winter bus for many of us, so +PNA would be a BIG + no matter how big the + really is. 

Having that alone would let me roll the winter dice.  Throw in some help from NAO/EPO and I'll push all my chips in...no matter the result.  I'm a believer that around here it needs to be cold to snow before anything else.  While, there are other ways to do it, they are just too low % IMO.  Gonna be fun this year.

Nut

2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Shame we aren't seeing the full N Hemisphere on those. Would really like to see what type of blocking we getting over Greenland. As is, all the months would probably imply opportunities but January and February really stand out with great blocking over top in Canada. December and March both are showing some Atlantic ridging which would threaten systems possibly running to our west but with a little -NAO love that problem would be easily solved. I would take this in a heartbeat because we are probably looking at coastal threats throughout the winter. If this were to actually verify I would be putting my money on above normal snowfall, potentially big time, if we get a Kocin event or two mixed into the equation.

I think many are just happy to see things aligning with the potential for a decent winter.  I'd take the snapshots above....no extrapolation for NH needed. 

To your point, it shows potential for an active winter and at this juncture....something to be excited about.  Looking forward to the evolution and discussions thereof.

Nut 

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Somewhere, Judah Cohen shed a tear just now.

Been following him for a while.  Hard not to like where we are........so far 

Hold the line......hold the line......

As stated above, if the H5 look from afar comes to fruition for DJF....most here would gladly take our chances.  Even if Nino stays low end and and we have only 1" of snow on 10" of frozen ponds....at least it might stick around and feel like deep winter.  Of course I'd be happier to have those numbers switched.  Getting too old to ice skate.

1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol I will be excited for first couple snows for sure, then maybe less. You and maytown keep me coming back to feel the excitement so here I am.

Fair enough......

plus were a cool crew to hang around with.

We expect pics when you and your crony jackpot this year.

56 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Have fun buddy, it's your time.

You know your inner snow weenie is dyin to get out and play......

I've seen you exited enough to not let up on you just yet......

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You shouldn't blindly trust modeled NAO...scrutinize WHY it may be modeled in order to determine if its viable. Anyone who did their homework and is well versed in the science should have strongly considered the idea that last March would come to fruition.

But if you want to throw your St Patty's day hat on and chase every "block" of gold at the other end of the day 10 rainbow, then that is on (collective) you.

Lastly, where I live is irrelevent, and plays no role in my beliefs.

You must have missed my tone.  I agree with you wholeheartedly as I do NOT trust the models and to a lesser/greater degree (based on personal knowledge) do try look for ways to believe/disbelieve what the models show.  I've learned lots in the last few years regarding large scale tellies etc., but still have much to learn.  In fairness, i've seen many on the board wanting to believe and arguing why it should happen, to see it go poof. 

I referenced your location only because your latitudes gives you wiggle room....no matter what the models show, or what any of us believes.

Looking forward to seeing how things take shape in the next 4-8 weeks.  Cautious optimism.  

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It did plenty of work last season. 

true, but 1 episode that has come to fruition is not enough for me to trust any modeled NAO.  In fairness, you have more wiggle room and can live without a little better than us in the Northern MA.  

no matter, that 2m temp map outta da UK is surely something pleasing to the eyes for much of the East.  

Looking forward to meeting Autumn.  She arrives tonight.  

6 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol I'm with Voyager

...................................................

Just playin.  Couldnt resist though.  With the front approaching, gotta say I'm a bit giddy right now.

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I like the idea of EPO passing the torch to NAO in the second half.

I think we all like that idea....but the elusive NAO has some work to do in gaining back trust IMO.

Looking forward to the first look through the snow globe to see where were all headed.  Getting close.

I'd like to introduce everyone to a new and most welcome guest that will be arriving this evening, and will be staying in our area for a while.....

Her name is Autumn.

She's quite a colorful individual and looks to be a refreshing change from what we're used to.

On behalf of everyone here (except that Schuylkill county dude ).....we welcome you.  Enjoy your stay!

Nut

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Got back from Texas around 2:30 a.m. Was in a black hole so haven't followed much of anything except UT football and the Red Sox. Good to see fall arrives tomorrow. 

And I just saw a massive hurricane is about to hit Florida. I had no idea. Wow. 

Welcome back.  Hope you werent in the black hole pictured above. 

Yikes

Looking at overnights, it really looks like Thursday night is the start of true fall round these parts.  Looking forward to it.  AOBN for as far as the eye (model) can see.  Ensemble 2m temp anomalies look to support this at varying degrees.  

I'm in.

Nut

Hoping after Friday we get cool and dry.  Looks like it anyway.  

46 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Whats affect is Tropical Storm Michael going to have on us, if any? 

Looks like alot of disparity among the op runs.  GEM/GFS say we drench....Euro/ICON say southern slider.  With SER in its waning stages, and frontal boundary on the doorstep, my gut says while we get a "good" rainer, the southern slider solutions like the Euro depict would hold more water .  See what i did there?  

Any slower northward movement of TS Michael would further support my thinking as well.  If frontal boundary lags, then more northern options could be in play. 

Thats what my guts saying......or is that the coffee.....??

Nut

Nice weekend in the northwoods.  Sticky and all, but still a nice time.  Colors have started north of WSPT and at cabin, I'd say its well underway.  Looking forward to true fall this upcoming weekend.  Its been long enough for us.  SER appears to be going going.....and hopefully gone.

Nut

and even further out....

GFS bias likely warms as we near....but it looks like the end of this God forsaken sticky sh!t is near.  Headin to Cedar Run for my 25th anniversary this afternoon, so keep an eye on the fort while I'm gone.  Dont let the warmies play w/ da models while I'm away :).  Happy Weekend all!!

Nut

14 hours ago, canderson said:

We will go straight from 80 to 40 and miss autumn entirely. This year SUCKS. 

relax young spritle....

Happy leaf peekin....

2 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

The wording on their warnings is something I’ve actually never seen in our area.

Nursing home. Not good.